Wildfire risk in Stanislaus County spans a wide range across the places we scored. The lowest overall score is 13.4 in Turlock, while the highest is 77.9 near Patterson, with a county midpoint of 28.9.
We scored 162 points across Stanislaus County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 1% of them come out Very High, while 48% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.
FEMA NRI also rates Stanislaus County: all-hazards risk Relatively High · social vulnerability Relatively Low · community resilience Relatively Low · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0060.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.
What does your Stanislaus County address score?
A county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.
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Looking at the four address-report tiers, Low is the most common tier, with 77 scored points. Very High appears at 2 points, while High and Moderate make up much of the rest.
For county-wide context, FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Stanislaus County’s wildfire risk as Relatively Moderate, and its all-hazards risk as Relatively High.
Since 1984, 116,839 acres have burned in Stanislaus County fire perimeters, and 12.1% of the county has burned in that period. The county records 100 fire perimeters since 1984.
The largest fire listed for the county is Canyon (2006), at 34,218 acres.
The most recent large fire is 2-2 (2025), at 3,463 acres. The Lick fire also stands out at 47,748 acres and was partly in Stanislaus County.
Fire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size.
Perimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Canyon 2006. Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.
In the larger cities, Modesto scores lower at 14.5 than Turlock at 18.8. Ceres is close to Turlock at 19.2.
Among towns, Oakdale is notably higher at 28.9, while Patterson is 22.8 and Newman is 21.1.
In smaller places, Empire is lower at 16.1, while Waterford is 20.6 and Riverdale Park is 19.6.
The score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the community's own record where the source carries one.
Fire weather was not measured for Stanislaus County.
Terrain scores are mostly at the low end, with a county midpoint of 20.0 and a high of 65.0 near Patterson.
Vegetation and fuels vary more than terrain. The midpoint is 46.0, and the high reaches 80.0 near Patterson.
Fire weather was not measured at the sampled points in Stanislaus County. The other four indicators on this page were, and the bars below show what they found.
Risk is not even across the county. The highest overall score, 77.9, is near Patterson, while the lowest, 13.4, is in Turlock.
By tier counts, Low shows up most often with 77 points, and High is also common at 56 points.
Among named communities, Oakdale has a higher central score at 28.9, while Modesto is lower at 14.5. Patterson sits between them at 22.8.
Each bar is what one part of the score covers across Stanislaus County, on the same 0–100 scale. A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same almost everywhere.
The tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50, Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.
| Layer | Min | Median | Max | Lowest place | Highest place | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrain | 20 | 20 | 65 | Newman | near Patterson | 162 |
| Vegetation & fuels | 20 | 46 | 80 | Turlock | near Patterson | 162 |
| Hazard zone | 10 | 10 | 90 | Newman | near Newman | 162 |
| Fire history | 5 | 5 | 95 | near Newman | near Patterson | 162 |
| Composite | 13.4 | 28.9 | 77.9 | Turlock | near Patterson | 162 |
Independently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at 0.92% (90th percentile cell: 2.27%), with a mean conditional flame length of 3.22 ft. 86% of the 15,470 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.
Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).
CAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at 1 of the 162 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas. At 1 of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead.
162 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 90%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.
Two location-based factors can differ a lot even within the same county. The hazard-zone score runs from 10.0 up to 90.0, with both ends appearing around Newman.
Past-fire pattern scores also spread widely, from 5.0 near Newman to 95.0 near Patterson.
For a separate county-wide model, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities product shows a mean annual burn probability of 0.92%, and a 90th-percentile cell value of 2.27%. It also indicates that 86.3% of the county can burn under that model.
Find out where your Stanislaus County parcel sits
Slope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Every one of the 41 ZIP areas that touch Stanislaus County — we run address-level reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and not a score for any property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.
High 2 ZIPs
Moderate 5 ZIPs
Low 17 ZIPs
No sampled point inside 17 ZIPs
94550 · 95023 · 95135 · 95228 Oakdale · 95236 Oakdale · 95303 Denair · 95304 Riverdale Park · 95324 Turlock · 95327 Oakdale · 95328 Hughson · 95337 Riverdale Park · 95350 Modesto · 95351 Modesto · 95366 Riverbank · 95368 Modesto · 95369 Waterford · 95374 Newman
Grouped from 24 of 41 ZIP areas — the rest had no sample point fall inside them. The community shown is the nearest mapped place to the ZIP's centre.
ZIP areas are Census 2020 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas intersecting the county boundary.
No. Scores range from 13.4 in Turlock to 77.9 near Patterson, so location within the county is associated with meaningful differences in wildfire risk.
FEMA’s National Risk Index rates the county’s wildfire risk as Relatively Moderate. It rates the county’s all-hazards risk as Relatively High.
12.1% of Stanislaus County has burned since 1984, totaling 116,839 acres within mapped fire perimeters.
The largest fire listed for the county is Canyon (2006), at 34,218 acres. The most recent large fire is 2-2 (2025), at 3,463 acres.
No. Fire weather was not measured for Stanislaus County in this scoring set.
A county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.
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