Wildfire risk in Santa Cruz County: where it is highest, and why
Wildfire risk in Santa Cruz County spans a wide range, with higher scores concentrated in some inland and mountain communities and lower scores in several coastal neighborhoods. Across the places we scored, the county’s midpoint is 49.8, and the largest count of scored points falls in the High tier (83 points).
Santa Cruz County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.
At a glance
Half of Santa Cruz County scores Moderate or worse
We scored 180 points across Santa Cruz County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 3% of them come out Very High, while 28% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.
46%
22%
28%
Very High3% · 6 of 180 pointsHigh46% · 83 of 180 pointsModerate22% · 40 of 180 pointsLow28% · 51 of 180 points
Safest end we measured8.7near Twin Lakes · Low
Middle of the county49.8Moderate — half of Santa Cruz County is above this
Most exposed end we measured78.4near Brookdale · Very High
And the federal models agree it is a fire county
Relatively ModerateFEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 97.3 / 100
$9.0M / yrFEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively High
0.20%USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 0.41%
1.76 ftUSFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 59% of the county carries burnable fuel
FEMA NRI also rates Santa Cruz County: all-hazards risk Relatively High · social vulnerability Relatively Low · community resilience Relatively High · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0045.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.
What does your Santa Cruz County address score?
A county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Local context
What the data says about Santa Cruz County
FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Santa Cruz County’s wildfire risk as Relatively Moderate, while its wildfire expected annual loss rating is Relatively High. In the separate USFS burn-probability model, the countywide mean annual burn probability is 0.20%, and 59.2% of the county is in places that can burn.
Fire record
Where the fires actually were
The largest fire listed for Santa Cruz County is the Lockheed fire in 2009 at 7,783 acres. It is also the most recent large fire.
Since 1984, recorded fire perimeters in and around the county account for 18,510 burned acres, which is 4.9% of the county, across 39 perimeters.
Other notable fires in this record include the Lexington fire in 1985 at 13,128 acres (partly in the county) and the Summit fire in 2008 at 4,175 acres.
Lockheed Fire, 2009 — Santa Cruz County.
Photo: Jeff Schmaltz · Public domainSummit Fire, 2008 — Santa Cruz County.
Photo: Chief Petty Officer Alan Haraf · Public domain
39mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984
18,510acres inside those perimeters since 1984
4.9%of the county's area, as a share of 1,522.3 km²
Lockheed 2009most recent large fire on record
Before 20002000s2010s2020s
Fire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size.
Named fires on record
Lockheed Fire20097,783 acres
Summit Fire20084,175 acres
Lincoln Hill Fire19623,236 acres
Lexington Fire198513,128 acres in totalcrossed into the county
Newell Creek #2 Fire19591,327 acres
Rocha Vmp Escape #2 Fire19841,240 acres
Loma Fire2009669 acres
Trabing Fire2008594 acres
Perimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · largest on record: Lockheed 2009.
Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.
Communities
Where in the county you are matters most
Among named communities, the higher overall wildfire risk scores are in mountain and inland areas such as Brookdale (74.7) and Boulder Creek (67.0). Lower scores appear in places like Watsonville (13.4) and Santa Cruz (16.7).
Other communities sit in the middle-to-higher range, including Felton at 57.8 and Aptos Hills-Larkin Valley at 56.6, while some coastal communities like Seacliff are lower at 22.6.
Brookdalevillage
74.7 High
Boulder Creektown · 4,923 people
67 High
Bonny Doonvillage
66 High
Day Valleyvillage
60.6 High
Paradise Parkvillage
58.8 High
Feltonvillage
57.8 High
Aptos Hills-Larkin Valleyvillage
56.6 High
Summit Westvillage
56.6 High
Corralitosvillage
53.1 High
Lompicovillage
51.9 High
20 more communities in Santa Cruz County
Happy Valleyvillage
50.1 High
Summitvillage
49.1 Moderate
Scotts Valleytown · 11,150 people
48.6 Moderate
Amestivillage
44.2 Moderate
Ben Lomondvillage
42.6 Moderate
Davenportvillage
37.1 Moderate
Interlakenvillage
36.9 Moderate
Soquelvillage
22.8 Low
Seacliffvillage
22.6 Low
La Selva Beachvillage
21.9 Low
Pajaro Dunesvillage
21.9 Low
Rio Del Marvillage
18.9 Low
Seascapevillage
17.6 Low
Santa Cruzcity · 64,220 people
16.7 Low
Watsonvillecity
13.4 Low
Watsonvilletown · 51,199 people
13.4 Low
Capitolatown · 9,507 people
13.4 Low
Live Oaktown · 8,392 people
13.4 Low
Opal Cliffsvillage
8.7 Low
Twin Lakesvillage
8.7 Low
The score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale
indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the
community's own record where the source carries one.
Terrain & fuels
Terrain, vegetation and fuels
Terrain scores run from 5.0 at Pajaro Dunes up to 65.0 at Corralitos, with a midpoint of 40.0. That spread is associated with meaningful place-to-place differences in wildfire exposure.
Vegetation and fuels are generally elevated in many inland spots, from 5.0 near Twin Lakes up to 80.0 in Bonny Doon. Hazard-zone scores are also high in many places, with a county midpoint of 70.0 and a high of 90.0 near Bonny Doon.
Fire-history scores range from 5.0 near Twin Lakes to 95.0 in Davenport, showing that prior fire footprint is much heavier in some locations than others.
40median terrain score (max 65 near Corralitos)
59.1median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near Bonny Doon)
Fire weather
Fire weather across Santa Cruz County
Fire weather could only be measured at a handful of points in this county, not across the county. It was measured at 8 of 180 scored points, and the reported score there is 58.1 near Twin Lakes.
Countywide, the available model output here is burn probability, not fire weather: the mean annual burn probability is 0.20%, and the 90th-percentile cell value is 0.41%.
Fire weather was measured at 8 of the 180 sampled points
(near Twin Lakes, 58.1) — too
few to publish as a county range, so no high/low is shown here.
What drives it
Which part of the risk moves, and which doesn't
Wildfire risk is not uniform across the county. The lowest scored location is Twin Lakes at 8.7, while the highest is Brookdale at 78.4, with a county midpoint of 49.8.
By tier counts, High is the most common tier with 83 scored points, compared with 51 in Low. Moderate and Very High are also present in the county.
Each bar is what one part of the score covers across Santa Cruz County, on the same 0–100 scale.
A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same
almost everywhere.
Terrain
5–65highest near Corralitos
Vegetation & fuels
5–80highest near Bonny Doon
Hazard zone
10–90highest near Bonny Doon
Fire history
5–95highest near Davenport
Fire weather
58.1 at one pointhighest near Twin Lakes
Overall score
8.7–78.4highest near Brookdale
The tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50,
Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.
Show every number behind these bars
Layer
Min
Median
Max
Lowest place
Highest place
Points
Terrain
5
40
65
Pajaro Dunes
Corralitos
180
Vegetation & fuels
5
59.1
80
near Twin Lakes
Bonny Doon
180
Hazard zone
10
70
90
near Twin Lakes
near Bonny Doon
180
Fire history
5
20
95
near Twin Lakes
Davenport
180
Fire weather*
—
—
58.1
—
near Twin Lakes
8
Composite
8.7
49.8
78.4
Twin Lakes
Brookdale
180
*Fire weather returned a reading at only 8 of the 180 sampled points. The one
value measured is shown under Max with the place beside it; there is no county range to
report, so the other columns are left blank.
Independently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at 0.20% (90th percentile cell: 0.41%), with a mean conditional flame length of 1.76 ft. 59% of the 19,085 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.
Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).
CAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at 35 of the 180 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas. At 1 of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead; at the remaining 34 the hazard weight is renormalised away rather than scored as low.
180 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 90%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.
For a property
What a county range means for one address
Property-by-property building-condition factors were not measured at all.
What is available is place-based wildfire risk around a property. For example, nearby location patterns range from low scores such as Twin Lakes at 8.7 to much higher scores such as Brookdale at 78.4, so a specific address’s surroundings can differ sharply even within one county.
You can also use local context from hazard-zone and fire-history patterns: hazard-zone scores reach 90.0 near Bonny Doon, and fire-history scores reach 95.0 in Davenport.
Across 180 sampled points in Santa Cruz County, the score runs from
8.7 to 78.4 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers.
A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.
Find out where your Santa Cruz County parcel sits
Slope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Coverage
ZIP codes we cover in Santa Cruz County
Every one of the 25 ZIP areas that touch Santa Cruz County — we run address-level
reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside
each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and not a score for any
property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.
Frequently asked questions about Santa Cruz County wildfire risk
What is the most recent large fire in Santa Cruz County?
The most recent large fire listed is Lockheed (2009), which is also the largest in this record at 7,783 acres.
How much of the county has burned since 1984?
18,510 acres have burned since 1984, equal to 4.9% of Santa Cruz County.
Does every part of the county have a fire-weather score?
No. Fire weather was only measured at a handful of points (8 of 180), with a reported value of 58.1 near Twin Lakes, so it was not measured across the county.
What does FEMA say about wildfire risk here?
FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Santa Cruz County’s wildfire risk as Relatively Moderate and its wildfire expected annual loss as Relatively High.
This page is generated from a Santa Cruz County data pack assembled on 2026-08-19 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the
county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a
substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's
underwriting judgement.
Data versions: fema_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.
What does your parcel look like, layer by layer?
A county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.
