Wildfire risk in Santa Clara County: where it is highest, and why
Wildfire risk is not uniform across Santa Clara County. In the places we scored, the middle value is 54.8, with lows around 13.4 in Los Gatos and highs up to 82.5 near San Jose. That spread means two homes in different parts of the county can face very different wildfire exposure.
Santa Clara County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.
At a glance
Half of Santa Clara County scores High or worse
We scored 167 points across Santa Clara County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 10% of them come out Very High, while 27% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.
10%
50%
13%
27%
Very High10% · 17 of 167 pointsHigh50% · 83 of 167 pointsModerate13% · 22 of 167 pointsLow27% · 45 of 167 points
Safest end we measured13.4near Los Gatos · Low
Middle of the county54.8High — half of Santa Clara County is above this
Most exposed end we measured82.5near San Jose · Very High
And the federal models agree it is a fire county
Relatively ModerateFEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 97.4 / 100
$10.2M / yrFEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively High
1.14%USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 2.53%
3.69 ftUSFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 85% of the county carries burnable fuel
FEMA NRI also rates Santa Clara County: all-hazards risk Very High · social vulnerability Very Low · community resilience Relatively High · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0059.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.
What does your Santa Clara County address score?
A county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Local context
What the data says about Santa Clara County
Across the county, the largest group of scored places falls in the High tier, with 83 points in that band. FEMA’s National Risk Index rates county-wide wildfire risk as Relatively Moderate, while its wildfire expected annual loss rating is Relatively High.
Fire record
Where the fires actually were
The largest fire listed here is the Lick fire (2007), at 47,748 acres.
The most recent large fire is the Crews fire (2020), at 5,513 acres.
Since 1984, 135,608 acres have burned in Santa Clara County, and that equals 16.3% of the county. The county has had 106 mapped fire perimeters over that period.
Another major event was the Canyon fire (2006), at 34,218 acres, and it was partly in Santa Clara County.
Loma Fire, 2016 — Santa Clara County.
Photo: Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC · Public domain
106mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984
135,608acres inside those perimeters since 1984
16.3%of the county's area, as a share of 3,363 km²
Crews 2020most recent large fire on record
Before 20002000s2010s2020s
Fire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size.
Named fires on record
Lick Fire200747,748 acres
Bollinger Ridge Fire196132,866 acres
Crews Fire20205,513 acres
Lexington Fire198513,128 acres
Loma Fire20164,474 acres
Canyon Fire200634,218 acres in totalcrossed into the county
Austrian Gulch Fire19619,071 acres
Saunders Fire19527,219 acres
Perimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Lick 2007.
Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.
Communities
Where in the county you are matters most
Among larger cities, lower wildfire risk scores appear in places like Sunnyvale (13.4) and San Jose (16.7), while Santa Clara is higher at 23.4.
Higher community values show up in Morgan Hill (55.4), Gilroy (48.4), and Saratoga (66.9). That pattern matches the county’s wider spread between urban lowlands and more exposed edges.
At smaller-community scale, Redwood Estates is 58.9 and San Martin is 52.4, while Los Altos Hills is 13.4. Nearby places can still differ a lot.
Saratogatown · 30,153 people
66.9 High
Redwood Estatesvillage
58.9 High
Morgan Hilltown · 45,952 people
55.4 High
San Martinvillage
52.4 High
Gilroycity · 59,032 people
48.4 Moderate
Milpitascity · 84,196 people
44.3 Moderate
Los Altostown · 30,089 people
32.4 Moderate
Los Gatostown · 30,222 people
27.4 Moderate
Santa Claracity · 130,365 people
23.4 Low
Monte Serenovillage · 3,427 people
19.4 Low
7 more communities in Santa Clara County
San Josecity · 1,013,240 people
16.7 Low
Mountain Viewcity · 82,739 people
16.7 Low
Sunnyvalecity · 152,703 people
13.4 Low
Palo Altocity · 65,364 people
13.4 Low
Cupertinocity · 59,276 people
13.4 Low
Campbelltown · 41,793 people
13.4 Low
Los Altos Hillsvillage · 8,423 people
13.4 Low
The score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale
indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the
community's own record where the source carries one.
Terrain & fuels
Terrain, vegetation and fuels
Fire weather was not measured at all in Santa Clara County in the places we scored.
Terrain is still an important part of the local pattern. Terrain scores run from 20.0 in Gilroy to 65.0 near Gilroy, with a county middle value of 40.0.
Vegetation and fuels also vary sharply by place. Scores run from 5.0 in Milpitas to 80.0 near Morgan Hill, with a middle value of 65.0.
40median terrain score (max 65 near Gilroy)
65median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near Morgan Hill)
Fire weather
Fire weather across Santa Clara County
Fire weather was not measured at the sampled points in Santa Clara County. The other four
indicators on this page were, and the bars below show what they found.
What drives it
Which part of the risk moves, and which doesn't
Wildfire risk varies a lot by location in this county. The lowest scored point is 13.4 in Los Gatos, while the highest is 82.5 near San Jose.
By tier counts, High is the most common level among the places we scored, with 83 points. Low is next, with 45 points.
Moderate includes 22 points, and Very High includes 17 points. So higher-exposure tiers are common, but they are not the whole county.
Each bar is what one part of the score covers across Santa Clara County, on the same 0–100 scale.
A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same
almost everywhere.
Terrain
20–65highest near Gilroy
Vegetation & fuels
5–80highest near Morgan Hill
Hazard zone
10–90highest near Gilroy
Fire history
5–95highest near Santa Clara
Overall score
13.4–82.5highest near San Jose
The tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50,
Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.
Show every number behind these bars
Layer
Min
Median
Max
Lowest place
Highest place
Points
Terrain
20
40
65
Gilroy
near Gilroy
167
Vegetation & fuels
5
65
80
Milpitas
near Morgan Hill
167
Hazard zone
10
70
90
Gilroy
near Gilroy
167
Fire history
5
20
95
Gilroy
Santa Clara
167
Composite
13.4
54.8
82.5
Los Gatos
near San Jose
167
Independently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at 1.14% (90th percentile cell: 2.53%), with a mean conditional flame length of 3.69 ft. 85% of the 23,330 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.
Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).
CAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at 2 of the 167 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas. At 1 of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead; at the remaining 1 the hazard weight is renormalised away rather than scored as low.
167 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 90%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.
For a property
What a county range means for one address
For property context, hazard-zone scores are wide in this county: 10.0 in Gilroy up to 90.0 near Gilroy, with a middle value of 70.0. This layer contributes to why parcels in different locations can have very different wildfire risk.
Fire-history scores also span a wide range, from 5.0 in Gilroy to 95.0 in Santa Clara, with a middle value of 20.0. Past fire footprint is one of several factors associated with current exposure.
A separate federal model reports a mean annual burn probability of 1.14% and a 90th-percentile cell value of 2.53%. It also indicates that 84.6% of the county can burn.
Across 167 sampled points in Santa Clara County, the score runs from
13.4 to 82.5 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers.
A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.
Find out where your Santa Clara County parcel sits
Slope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Coverage
ZIP codes we cover in Santa Clara County
Every one of the 70 ZIP areas that touch Santa Clara County — we run address-level
reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside
each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and not a score for any
property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.
Frequently asked questions about Santa Clara County wildfire risk
What does it mean that most places are in the High tier?
It means High is the most common wildfire-risk tier among the places we scored in Santa Clara County (83 points). It does not mean every neighborhood is High, because Low (45), Moderate (22), and Very High (17) are also present.
What are the key fires I should know here?
The largest fire listed is Lick (2007), at 47,748 acres. The most recent large fire is Crews (2020), at 5,513 acres.
How much of Santa Clara County has burned since 1984?
16.3% of the county has burned since 1984, totaling 135,608 acres, with 106 mapped fire perimeters.
Did this county include fire-weather scoring?
No. Fire weather was not measured at all in Santa Clara County in the places we scored.
How should I read the FEMA ratings on this page?
They are county-wide ratings from FEMA’s National Risk Index. For wildfire, FEMA rates Santa Clara County as Relatively Moderate for risk and Relatively High for expected annual loss.
This page is generated from a Santa Clara County data pack assembled on 2026-08-18 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the
county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a
substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's
underwriting judgement.
Data versions: fema_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.
What does your parcel look like, layer by layer?
A county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.
