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San Mateo County, California

Wildfire risk in San Mateo County: where it is highest, and why

Across the places we scored in San Mateo County, overall wildfire risk runs from 5.0 to 70.0, with a middle value of 20.4.

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San Mateo County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.
At a glance

Half of San Mateo County scores Low or worse

We scored 178 points across San Mateo County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 30% of them come out High, while 53% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.

High 30% · 54 of 178 points Moderate 16% · 29 of 178 points Low 53% · 95 of 178 points
Safest end we measured 5 near Pescadero · Low
Middle of the county 20.4 Low — half of San Mateo County is above this
Most exposed end we measured 70 near Pescadero · High

And the federal models agree it is a fire county

Relatively Moderate FEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 92 / 100
$2.2M / yr FEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively Moderate
0.17% USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 0.36%
1.94 ft USFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 44% of the county carries burnable fuel

FEMA NRI also rates San Mateo County: all-hazards risk Relatively High · social vulnerability Relatively Low · community resilience Very High · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0016.

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.

What does your San Mateo County address score?

A county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.

Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan

Local context

What the data says about San Mateo County

Most scored locations fall in the Low tier (95 points), followed by High (54) and Moderate (29). No scored points fall in the Very High tier.

FEMA’s National Risk Index rates the county’s wildfire risk as Relatively Moderate, and its expected annual wildfire loss from wildfire as Relatively Moderate.

Fire record

Where the fires actually were

Since 1984, 2,063 acres have burned in San Mateo County across 28 mapped fire perimeters. That equals 0.4% of the county.

The largest fire named in the county summary is Cloverdale Vmp (2010), at 404 acres, and it is marked as outside the county. The most recent large fire named for the county is Whipple (2023).

Older records also include Lincoln Hill (1962), a 3,236-acre fire marked as partly in the county.

28 mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984
2,063 acres inside those perimeters since 1984
0.4% of the county's area, as a share of 1,909.8 km²
Whipple 2023 most recent large fire on record
Named fires on record
  • Lincoln Hill Fire19623,236 acres in totalcrossed into the county
  • Crocker Estate #16 Fire19641,544 acres
  • Leib Fire19621,328 acres
  • Cloverdale Vmp Fire2010404 acres
  • highlands fuel reduction Fire2015290 acres
  • Crocker #6 Fire1962370 acres
  • Quarry Fire2008211 acres
  • 2017 Broadcast Burn Fire2017128 acres

Perimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · largest on record: Cloverdale Vmp 2010. Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.

Communities

Where in the county you are matters most

Among larger cities, South San Francisco has a higher typical overall score (24.5) than San Mateo (16.7) and Daly City (13.4).

On the coast and in the hills, several smaller communities score higher, including El Granada (55.6), La Honda (52.6), and Pescadero (41.1).

Some nearby places are much lower, such as Moss Beach at 5.0 and Brisbane at 6.7. That local contrast is important when comparing specific homes.

Woodside village · 5,509 people
57.9 High
El Granada village
55.6 High
Millbrae town · 21,536 people
55 High
Portola Valley village · 4,353 people
55 High
La Honda village
52.6 High
Half Moon Bay town · 12,308 people
50 High
Hillsborough town · 10,825 people
44.8 Moderate
Pescadero village
41.1 Moderate
Ladera village
32.8 Moderate
Montara village
28 Moderate
18 more communities in San Mateo County
Belmont town · 25,835 people
27.6 Moderate
Pacifica town · 37,327 people
27.5 Moderate
South San Francisco city · 63,632 people
24.5 Low
North Fair Oaks town · 14,687 people
23.8 Low
Colma village · 1,507 people
20.5 Low
Redwood City city · 88,314 people
18.9 Low
San Carlos town · 27,002 people
18.9 Low
San Mateo city · 103,536 people
16.7 Low
San Bruno town · 41,114 people
16.7 Low
Menlo Park town · 33,780 people
14.6 Low
Daly City city · 101,005 people
13.4 Low
Atherton town · 6,914 people
13.4 Low
East Palo Alto town · 32,784 people
11.7 Low
Broadmoor village · 4,176 people
11.7 Low
Foster City town · 30,567 people
6.7 Low
Burlingame town · 27,573 people
6.7 Low
Brisbane town · 4,282 people
6.7 Low
Moss Beach village
5 Low

The score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the community's own record where the source carries one.

Terrain & fuels

Terrain, vegetation and fuels

Fire weather was not measured at all in this county.

Terrain scores are higher around La Honda, where the highest scored terrain value is 65.0, and lower near Pescadero at 5.0.

Vegetation and fuels also vary sharply: the highest scored value is 80.0 in Pescadero, while the lowest is 5.0 near Pescadero. Those differences are associated with the county’s place-to-place wildfire risk variation.

20 median terrain score (max 65 near La Honda)
20 median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near Pescadero)
Fire weather

Fire weather across San Mateo County

Fire weather was not measured at the sampled points in San Mateo County. The other four indicators on this page were, and the bars below show what they found.

What drives it

Which part of the risk moves, and which doesn't

Wildfire risk is not uniform across San Mateo County. In Pescadero, the overall score ranges from 5.0 up to 70.0 in the places we scored.

At the community level, higher typical scores appear in Woodside (57.9), Portola Valley (55.0), and Half Moon Bay (50.0).

Lower typical scores appear in Foster City and Burlingame (both 6.7), with East Palo Alto at 11.7.

Each bar is what one part of the score covers across San Mateo County, on the same 0–100 scale. A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same almost everywhere.

Terrain
5–65 highest near La Honda
Vegetation & fuels
5–80 highest near Pescadero
Hazard zone
10–90 highest near Pescadero
Fire history
5–80 highest near Pescadero
Overall score
5–70 highest near Pescadero

The tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50, Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.

Show every number behind these bars
Layer Min Median Max Lowest place Highest place Points
Terrain 5 20 65 Pescadero La Honda 178
Vegetation & fuels 5 20 80 near Pescadero Pescadero 178
Hazard zone 10 10 90 near Pescadero Pescadero 178
Fire history 5 5 80 near Pescadero Pescadero 178
Composite 5 20.4 70 Pescadero Pescadero 178

Independently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at 0.17% (90th percentile cell: 0.36%), with a mean conditional flame length of 1.94 ft. 44% of the 23,374 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.

Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).

CAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at 42 of the 178 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas. The USFS grid could not read any of them either, so the hazard weight is renormalised away rather than scored as low.

178 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 90%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.

For a property

What a county range means for one address

Hazard-zone scores are mostly low in the places we scored, with a middle value of 10.0. The highest scored hazard-zone value reaches 90.0 in Pescadero.

Fire-history scores are also low in many locations (middle value 5.0), but they climb to 80.0 in Pescadero.

A separate countywide model from the U.S. Forest Service reports mean annual burn probability of 0.17% and a 90th-percentile cell value of 0.36%. It also shows 44.2% of the county in areas that can burn.

FEMA’s National Risk Index rates San Mateo County’s wildfire risk as Relatively Moderate and expected annual wildfire loss as Relatively Moderate. In that same index, all-hazards risk is Relatively High, social vulnerability is Relatively Low, and community resilience is Very High.

Across 178 sampled points in San Mateo County, the score runs from 5 to 70 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers. A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.

Find out where your San Mateo County parcel sits

Slope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.

Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan

Coverage

ZIP codes we cover in San Mateo County

Every one of the 42 ZIP areas that touch San Mateo County — we run address-level reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and not a score for any property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.

Grouped from 29 of 42 ZIP areas — the rest had no sample point fall inside them. The community shown is the nearest mapped place to the ZIP's centre.

ZIP areas are Census 2020 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas intersecting the county boundary.

Where to go next

San Mateo County wildfire risk in context

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about San Mateo County wildfire risk

Has much of San Mateo County burned since 1984?

No. The record here shows 2,063 acres burned since 1984, which is 0.4% of the county.

What is the most recent large fire named for the county?

The most recent large fire named for San Mateo County is Whipple (2023).

What fire is listed as the largest in the county summary?

The county summary names Cloverdale Vmp (2010) as the largest, at 404 acres, and marks it as outside the county.

Were fire-weather conditions included in these county scores?

No. Fire weather was not measured at all in this county.

Which communities show higher and lower typical scores?

Higher typical scores include Woodside (57.9) and Portola Valley (55.0). Lower typical scores include Foster City and Burlingame (both 6.7).

This page is generated from a San Mateo County data pack assembled on 2026-08-18 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's underwriting judgement. Data versions: fema_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.

What does your parcel look like, layer by layer?

A county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.

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