Wildfire risk in Orange County: where it is highest, and why
Wildfire risk in Orange County spans a wide range across the places we scored. The lowest scored point is 16.1 in San Clemente, the highest is 84.1 in Trabuco Canyon, and the middle score is 35.0.
Orange County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.
At a glance
Half of Orange County scores Moderate or worse
We scored 186 points across Orange County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 19% of them come out Very High, while 40% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.
19%
17%
24%
40%
Very High19% · 36 of 186 pointsHigh17% · 32 of 186 pointsModerate24% · 44 of 186 pointsLow40% · 74 of 186 points
Safest end we measured16.1near San Clemente · Low
Middle of the county35Moderate — half of Orange County is above this
Most exposed end we measured84.1near Trabuco Canyon · Very High
And the federal models agree it is a fire county
Relatively HighFEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 99.8 / 100
$57.6M / yrFEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively High
1.78%USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 6.12%
3.67 ftUSFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 50% of the county carries burnable fuel
FEMA NRI also rates Orange County: all-hazards risk Very High · social vulnerability Relatively Low · community resilience Very Low · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0107.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.
What does your Orange County address score?
A county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Local context
What the data says about Orange County
Looking at the county’s four risk tiers, the biggest group of scored points is in Low (74), followed by Moderate (44).
There are also many higher-risk locations: 32 scored points are in High and 36 are in Very High. Separately, FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Orange County’s wildfire risk as "Relatively High" and its all-hazards risk as "Very High."
Fire record
Where the fires actually were
Since 1984, 235,731 acres have burned in Orange County, and 38.9% of the county has burned at least once in that period. The county records here also show 112 fire perimeters since 1984.
The largest fire named in this set is the Freeway Complex (2008), at 30,305 acres.
The most recent large fire is Airport (2024), at 23,519 acres.
Airport Fire, 2024 — Orange County.
Photo: Forest Service Photography · Public domainGreen River Fire, 1948 — Orange County.
Photo: Forest Service Photography · Public domain
112mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984
235,731acres inside those perimeters since 1984
38.9%of the county's area, as a share of 2,450.7 km²
Airport 2024most recent large fire on record
Before 20002000s2010s2020s
Fire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size.
Named fires on record
Steward Fire195868,106 acres
Airport Fire202423,519 acres
Green River Fire194853,080 acres
Freeway Fire200830,305 acres
Paseo Grande Fire196751,076 acres
Santiago Fire200728,430 acres
Silverado Fire202012,466 acres
Indian Fire198028,940 acres
Perimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Freeway_Complex 2008.
Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.
Communities
Where in the county you are matters most
Among the largest cities, wildfire risk scores are in a similar band: Anaheim is 18.8, Santa Ana is 18.8, and Irvine is 21.0.
Several south county communities sit higher, including Lake Forest at 47.0, Laguna Niguel at 49.5, and San Juan Capistrano at 53.0.
Some of the highest community-level scores are in Ladera Ranch at 74.9, Laguna Woods at 77.7, and Trabuco Canyon at 78.7.
Trabuco Canyonvillage
78.7 Very High
Laguna Woodstown · 18,210 people
77.7 Very High
Ladera Ranchtown · 26,170 people
74.9 High
Villa Parktown · 6,020 people
74.9 High
Coto De Cazavillage · 14,866 people
74.2 High
Rancho Santa Margaritatown · 50,618 people
67.8 High
Yorba Lindatown · 65,314 people
60.1 High
San Juan Capistranotown · 34,839 people
53 High
Laguna Nigueltown · 64,771 people
49.5 Moderate
Lake Foresttown · 76,323 people
47 Moderate
26 more communities in Orange County
Aliso Viejotown · 41,489 people
42 Moderate
San Clementecity · 65,526 people
40.4 Moderate
La Habratown · 59,264 people
38.1 Moderate
Mission Viejocity · 97,156 people
38 Moderate
Laguna Hillstown · 32,156 people
38 Moderate
Laguna Beachtown · 22,991 people
35.9 Moderate
Breatown · 38,585 people
33.6 Moderate
Tustintown · 69,665 people
29 Moderate
Placentiatown · 49,943 people
25.1 Moderate
Costa Mesacity · 109,960 people
21.8 Low
Irvinecity · 256,927 people
21 Low
Seal Beachtown · 24,168 people
20.9 Low
Westminstertown · 89,701 people
19.5 Low
Anaheimcity · 350,742 people
18.8 Low
Santa Anacity · 335,400 people
18.8 Low
Garden Grovecity · 170,883 people
18.8 Low
Buena Parktown · 80,530 people
18.8 Low
Cypresstown · 47,802 people
18.8 Low
La Palmatown · 15,776 people
18.8 Low
Los Alamitostown · 11,449 people
18.8 Low
Huntington Beachcity · 193,366 people
18.7 Low
Fullertoncity · 135,161 people
18.7 Low
Fountain Valleytown · 54,797 people
18.7 Low
Orangecity · 135,070 people
18 Low
Newport Beachtown · 85,186 people
18 Low
Dana Pointtown · 33,351 people
16.1 Low
The score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale
indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the
community's own record where the source carries one.
Terrain & fuels
Terrain, vegetation and fuels
Terrain is one contributor to how risk changes by location. The terrain score is 20.0 in San Clemente and reaches 65.0 in Coto De Caza.
Vegetation and fuels also vary sharply by place, from 5.0 in San Clemente to 80.0 in Laguna Niguel. In general, places with heavier fuels are associated with higher wildfire risk scores.
20median terrain score (max 65 near Coto De Caza)
20median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near Laguna Niguel)
Fire weather
Fire weather across Orange County
Fire weather was measured across the county, and it is elevated in most places we scored. It ranges from 59.8 in Newport Beach to 67.5 in Huntington Beach.
The middle fire-weather score is 59.9, so the weather-related exposure signal is fairly tight countywide even while total wildfire risk differs a lot from one community to another.
59.8lowest fire-weather score — near Newport Beach
67.5highest fire-weather score — near Huntington Beach
What drives it
Which part of the risk moves, and which doesn't
Wildfire risk is not even across Orange County. Across the places we scored, it runs from 16.1 in San Clemente up to 84.1 in Trabuco Canyon.
Higher scores show up in several foothill and canyon-edge communities, including Rancho Santa Margarita at 67.8 and Yorba Linda at 60.1.
Lower scores appear in parts of the coastal/plain area, including Newport Beach at 18.0 and Fountain Valley at 18.7.
Each bar is what one part of the score covers across Orange County, on the same 0–100 scale.
A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same
almost everywhere.
Terrain
20–65highest near Coto De Caza
Vegetation & fuels
5–80highest near Laguna Niguel
Hazard zone
10–98.4highest near Coto De Caza
Fire history
5–95highest near Laguna Niguel
Fire weather
59.8–67.5highest near Huntington Beach
Overall score
16.1–84.1highest near Trabuco Canyon
The tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50,
Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.
Show every number behind these bars
Layer
Min
Median
Max
Lowest place
Highest place
Points
Terrain
20
20
65
San Clemente
Coto De Caza
186
Vegetation & fuels
5
20
80
San Clemente
Laguna Niguel
185
Hazard zone
10
10
98.4
San Clemente
Coto De Caza
186
Fire history
5
70
95
San Clemente
Laguna Niguel
186
Fire weather
59.8
59.9
67.5
Newport Beach
Huntington Beach
186
Composite
16.1
35
84.1
San Clemente
Trabuco Canyon
186
Independently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at 1.78% (90th percentile cell: 6.12%), with a mean conditional flame length of 3.67 ft. 50% of the 21,074 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.
Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).
CAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at 41 of the 186 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas. At 18 of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead; at the remaining 23 the hazard weight is renormalised away rather than scored as low.
186 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 100%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.
For a property
What a county range means for one address
Building-level wildfire characteristics were not measured at all for this county in this scoring set.
For place-based property context, hazard-zone scores range from 10.0 in San Clemente to 98.4 in Coto De Caza.
Fire-history scores are often high: the middle score is 70.0, and the maximum is 95.0 in Laguna Niguel.
A separate USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities model reports a mean annual burn probability of 1.78% for the county, with a 90th-percentile cell at 6.12%. It also indicates that 49.9% of the county can burn.
Across 186 sampled points in Orange County, the score runs from
16.1 to 84.1 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers.
A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.
Find out where your Orange County parcel sits
Slope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Coverage
ZIP codes we cover in Orange County
Every one of the 107 ZIP areas that touch Orange County — we run address-level
reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside
each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and not a score for any
property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.
Frequently asked questions about Orange County wildfire risk
What does FEMA’s "Relatively High" wildfire rating mean here?
It is FEMA National Risk Index’s county-wide rating for Orange County, not a neighborhood score. In this case, FEMA rates both wildfire risk and expected annual wildfire loss as "Relatively High."
Which fire is the biggest, and which one is the most recent large fire?
In these records, the largest named fire is the Freeway Complex (2008) at 30,305 acres. The most recent large fire is Airport (2024) at 23,519 acres.
Why can two communities in the same county have very different wildfire risk scores?
The score combines several place-based factors that vary locally, including terrain, vegetation/fuels, hazard-zone level, and fire history. That is why communities like Newport Beach (18.0) and Trabuco Canyon (78.7) can be far apart.
Does a Low score mean a property has no wildfire risk?
No. A Low tier means lower relative exposure than other scored places in the county, not zero risk.
This page is generated from a Orange County data pack assembled on 2026-08-18 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the
county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a
substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's
underwriting judgement.
Data versions: fema_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.
What does your parcel look like, layer by layer?
A county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.
