Wildfire risk in Monterey County: where it is highest, and why
Wildfire risk in Monterey County spans a wide range across the places we scored. Overall scores run from 16.0 in unincorporated Monterey County to 77.2 near Carmel Valley, with a midpoint of 56.8.
Monterey County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.
At a glance
Half of Monterey County scores High or worse
We scored 172 points across Monterey County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 4% of them come out Very High, while 20% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.
54%
22%
20%
Very High4% · 7 of 172 pointsHigh54% · 93 of 172 pointsModerate22% · 37 of 172 pointsLow20% · 35 of 172 points
Safest end we measured16near unincorporated Monterey County · Low
Middle of the county56.8High — half of Monterey County is above this
Most exposed end we measured77.2near Carmel Valley · Very High
And the federal models agree it is a fire county
Relatively HighFEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 98.7 / 100
$17.1M / yrFEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively High
1.37%USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 3.42%
4.76 ftUSFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 76% of the county carries burnable fuel
FEMA NRI also rates Monterey County: all-hazards risk Relatively High · social vulnerability Relatively Moderate · community resilience Relatively Low · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0088.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.
What does your Monterey County address score?
A county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Local context
What the data says about Monterey County
By tier count, High is the most common result, with 93 scored points in that tier. Very High appears at 7 points, and FEMA’s National Risk Index rates countywide wildfire risk as "Relatively High."
Fire record
Where the fires actually were
Wildfire has affected a large share of Monterey County over time. Since 1984, 981,256 acres have burned, and 40.7% of the county has burned in that period. The county record shown here includes 249 fire perimeters since 1984.
The largest fire listed is Basin Complex (2008), at 163,607 acres. The most recent large fire is Range (2026). Other major fires in the county record include Dolan (2020), at 124,527 acres.
Soberanes Fire, 2016 — Monterey County.
Photo: blmcalifornia · Public domainBasin Complex Fire, 2008 — Monterey County.
Photo: Adam Dubrowa · Public domain
249mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984
981,256acres inside those perimeters since 1984
40.7%of the county's area, as a share of 9,758.9 km²
Range 2026most recent large fire on record
Before 20002000s2010s2020s
Fire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size.
Named fires on record
Dolan Fire2020124,527 acres
Soberanes Fire2016132,122 acres
Basin Complex Fire2008163,607 acres
Marble-Cone Fire1977173,334 acres
Indians Fire200876,460 acres
River Fire202048,869 acres
Kirk Fire199985,835 acres
Gorda-Rat Fire198556,158 acres
Perimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Basin Complex 2008.
Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.
Communities
Where in the county you are matters most
In larger population centers, median wildfire risk is lower in some places: Salinas is 22.4, Monterey is 17.9, and King City is 26.9.
Higher medians appear in Carmel Valley at 62.3, East Garrison at 55.5, and Pine Canyon at 54.7. These place differences line up with the county’s mix of Moderate, High, and Very High tier results.
Carmel Valleyvillage
62.3 High
Soledadtown · 25,738 people
58.2 High
East Garrisontown
55.5 High
Pine Canyonvillage · 2,703 people
54.7 High
Big Sur Villagevillage
51.6 High
Greenfieldtown · 14,264 people
50 High
Del Rey Oaksvillage · 1,558 people
48.5 Moderate
Carmel-by-the-Seavillage · 3,928 people
44.9 Moderate
Elkhornvillage
42.9 Moderate
Prunedaletown · 17,560 people
41.6 Moderate
12 more communities in Monterey County
Gonzalestown · 8,306 people
37.9 Moderate
Las Lomasvillage
36.9 Moderate
Del Monte Forestvillage
32.4 Moderate
King Citytown · 14,077 people
26.9 Moderate
Moss Landingvillage
26.4 Moderate
Pajarovillage · 3,070 people
23.1 Low
Salinascity · 157,380 people
22.4 Low
Castrovillevillage
22.1 Low
Sand Cityvillage · 301 people
20.9 Low
Borondavillage
20 Low
Montereycity · 28,803 people
17.9 Low
Pacific Grovetown · 15,090 people
16.1 Low
The score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale
indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the
community's own record where the source carries one.
Terrain & fuels
Terrain, vegetation and fuels
Terrain-related wildfire risk ranges from 20.0 in unincorporated Monterey County to 65.0 near Pine Canyon. The midpoint is 40.0.
Vegetation and fuels vary more: the low end is 5.0 in unincorporated Monterey County and the high end is 80.0 near Pine Canyon. The midpoint is 65.0.
40median terrain score (max 65 near Pine Canyon)
65median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near Pine Canyon)
LANDFIRE existing vegetation type across Monterey County — the same fuel data that feeds the
vegetation layer of a Satelife property report.
Fire weather
Fire weather across Monterey County
Fire-weather risk is relatively tight across the county, from 50.5 near Moss Landing to 59.6 near Big Sur Village. The midpoint is 54.1.
For additional context, the county’s modeled mean annual burn probability is 1.37%, and the 90th-percentile cell is 3.42%. This burn-probability measure is not a fire-weather reading.
50.5lowest fire-weather score — near Moss Landing
59.6highest fire-weather score — near Big Sur Village
What drives it
Which part of the risk moves, and which doesn't
Risk is not the same from one community to another. Carmel Valley has an overall median of 62.3 and Soledad is 58.2, while Monterey is 17.9.
Other communities sit in between, but still vary. Prunedale is 41.6 and Carmel-by-the-Sea is 44.9, while nearby Pacific Grove is lower at 16.1.
Each bar is what one part of the score covers across Monterey County, on the same 0–100 scale.
A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same
almost everywhere.
Terrain
20–65highest near Pine Canyon
Vegetation & fuels
5–80highest near Pine Canyon
Hazard zone
10–91.8highest near Pine Canyon
Fire history
5–95highest near Big Sur Village
Fire weather
50.5–59.6highest near Big Sur Village
Overall score
16–77.2highest near Carmel Valley
The tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50,
Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.
Show every number behind these bars
Layer
Min
Median
Max
Lowest place
Highest place
Points
Terrain
20
40
65
unincorporated Monterey County
near Pine Canyon
172
Vegetation & fuels
5
65
80
unincorporated Monterey County
near Pine Canyon
172
Hazard zone
10
68.2
91.8
unincorporated Monterey County
near Pine Canyon
172
Fire history
5
20
95
unincorporated Monterey County
near Big Sur Village
172
Fire weather
50.5
54.1
59.6
near Moss Landing
near Big Sur Village
172
Composite
16
56.8
77.2
unincorporated Monterey County
near Carmel Valley
172
Independently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at 1.37% (90th percentile cell: 3.42%), with a mean conditional flame length of 4.76 ft. 76% of the 18,842 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.
Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).
CAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at 56 of the 172 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas. At 27 of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead; at the remaining 29 the hazard weight is renormalised away rather than scored as low.
172 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 100%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.
For a property
What a county range means for one address
Building-specific features were not measured for this county page, so property context here comes from nearby wildfire-risk conditions.
Hazard-zone risk ranges from 10.0 in unincorporated Monterey County to 91.8 near Pine Canyon, with a midpoint of 68.2.
Fire-history risk ranges from 5.0 in unincorporated Monterey County to 95.0 near Big Sur Village, with a midpoint of 20.0. Countywide, 75.6% of Monterey County is in areas that can burn.
Across 172 sampled points in Monterey County, the score runs from
16 to 77.2 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers.
A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.
Find out where your Monterey County parcel sits
Slope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Coverage
ZIP codes we cover in Monterey County
Every one of the 39 ZIP areas that touch Monterey County — we run address-level
reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside
each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and not a score for any
property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.
Frequently asked questions about Monterey County wildfire risk
Does Monterey County mostly fall into High wildfire risk tiers?
Yes. High is the most common tier in the county results, with 93 scored points. Very High appears at 7 points.
What were the biggest and most recent large fires listed for Monterey County?
The largest fire listed is Basin Complex (2008), at 163,607 acres. The most recent large fire is Range (2026).
How does FEMA rate Monterey County for wildfire?
FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Monterey County’s wildfire risk as "Relatively High" and its wildfire expected annual loss as "Relatively High."
Are fire weather and burn probability the same thing on this page?
No. Fire weather is shown separately, and the modeled burn probability is a different measure. The county mean annual burn probability is 1.37%.
Do nearby communities have similar wildfire risk levels?
Not always. For example, Pacific Grove is 16.1 while Carmel Valley is 62.3, so community-level medians can differ a lot within the same county.
This page is generated from a Monterey County data pack assembled on 2026-08-18 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the
county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a
substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's
underwriting judgement.
Data versions: fema_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.
What does your parcel look like, layer by layer?
A county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.
