Wildfire risk in Marin County: where it is highest, and why
Wildfire risk in Marin County varies a lot from place to place. Across the places we scored, the lowest overall score is 12.7 in San Rafael, the highest is 73.2 in Kentfield, and the county middle is 40.2.
Marin County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.
At a glance
Half of Marin County scores Moderate or worse
We scored 163 points across Marin County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 37% of them come out High, while 27% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.
37%
36%
27%
High37% · 60 of 163 pointsModerate36% · 59 of 163 pointsLow27% · 44 of 163 points
Safest end we measured12.7near San Rafael · Low
Middle of the county40.2Moderate — half of Marin County is above this
Most exposed end we measured73.2near Kentfield · High
And the federal models agree it is a fire county
Relatively ModerateFEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 94.6 / 100
$3.6M / yrFEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively Moderate
0.46%USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 0.82%
2.79 ftUSFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 55% of the county carries burnable fuel
FEMA NRI also rates Marin County: all-hazards risk Relatively High · social vulnerability Relatively Low · community resilience Very High · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0026.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.
What does your Marin County address score?
A county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Local context
What the data says about Marin County
By tier, the largest group of scored places falls in High risk (60 points), with nearly as many in Moderate (59) and fewer in Low (44).
For a countywide benchmark, FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Marin County’s wildfire risk as Relatively Moderate, and its all-hazards risk as Relatively High.
Fire record
Where the fires actually were
The largest named fire in this record is Vision (1995) at 12,361 acres. The most recent large fire is Woodward (2020), which burned 4,907 acres.
Since 1984, Marin County has had 23,655 acres burned across 143 mapped fire perimeters. That equals 4.6% of the county.
One notable fire that was partly in the county is Anderson (1965), at 4,954 acres.
143mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984
23,655acres inside those perimeters since 1984
4.6%of the county's area, as a share of 2,102.7 km²
Woodward 2020most recent large fire on record
Before 20002000s2010s2020s
Fire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size.
Named fires on record
Uknown Fire192331,769 acres
Vision Fire199512,361 acres
Woodward Fire20204,907 acres
Uknown Fire19173,573 acres
Anderson Fire19654,954 acres in totalcrossed into the county
Devils Gulch Fire19171,543 acres
Uknown Fire19371,098 acres
Freitas Ranch Fire19171,007 acres
Perimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Vision 1995.
Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.
Communities
Where in the county you are matters most
Among larger communities, Novato stands out with a higher median wildfire risk score of 49.8, while San Rafael is much lower at 12.7.
Several southern and central towns cluster in the 30s, including Mill Valley at 35.3, Larkspur at 35.5, and Sausalito at 36.7.
Some smaller communities score higher, including Fairfax at 60.2 and Point Reyes Station at 53.5.
Fairfaxtown · 7,120 people
60.2 High
Point Reyes Stationvillage
53.5 High
Novatotown · 51,518 people
49.8 Moderate
Sausalitotown · 7,207 people
36.7 Moderate
Larkspurtown · 11,746 people
35.5 Moderate
Mill Valleytown · 13,323 people
35.3 Moderate
Belvederevillage · 2,073 people
33.7 Moderate
Tiburontown · 9,146 people
31 Moderate
Rossvillage · 2,300 people
31 Moderate
San Anselmotown · 12,043 people
29.4 Moderate
3 more communities in Marin County
Kentfieldvillage
27.7 Moderate
Corte Maderatown · 9,313 people
18.7 Low
San Rafaelcity · 58,704 people
12.7 Low
The score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale
indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the
community's own record where the source carries one.
Terrain & fuels
Terrain, vegetation and fuels
Terrain contributes unevenly to wildfire risk in Marin County. Terrain scores run from 5.0 in Mill Valley up to 40.0 in Sausalito, with a middle value of 20.0.
Vegetation and fuels show an even wider spread, from 5.0 in Mill Valley to 80.0 in Sausalito, with a middle value of 42.3. Higher vegetation-and-fuels scores are associated with higher overall wildfire risk in some locations.
20median terrain score (max 40 near Sausalito)
42.3median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near Sausalito)
Fire weather
Fire weather across Marin County
Fire weather was measured across the county, and it is consistently elevated compared with some other factors. Scores run from 60.2 in Novato to 74.1 near Point Reyes Station, with a middle value of 67.0.
Separate from fire weather, a national modeled burn-probability product estimates mean annual burn probability at 0.46%, with higher-end cells at 0.82%. It also shows 55.4% of the county in areas that can burn.
60.2lowest fire-weather score — near Novato
74.1highest fire-weather score — near Point Reyes Station
What drives it
Which part of the risk moves, and which doesn't
Risk is not uniform inside the county. The lowest scored location is in San Rafael at 12.7, while the highest scored location is in Kentfield at 73.2.
Community medians also spread out: Fairfax is at 60.2, Point Reyes Station is at 53.5, and Novato is at 49.8. Those are all well above San Rafael’s median of 12.7.
Each bar is what one part of the score covers across Marin County, on the same 0–100 scale.
A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same
almost everywhere.
Terrain
5–40highest near Sausalito
Vegetation & fuels
5–80highest near Sausalito
Hazard zone
10–90highest near Kentfield
Fire history
5–95highest near Sausalito
Fire weather
60.2–74.1highest near Point Reyes Station
Overall score
12.7–73.2highest near Kentfield
The tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50,
Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.
Show every number behind these bars
Layer
Min
Median
Max
Lowest place
Highest place
Points
Terrain
5
20
40
Mill Valley
Sausalito
163
Vegetation & fuels
5
42.3
80
Mill Valley
Sausalito
163
Hazard zone
10
40
90
Mill Valley
Kentfield
163
Fire history
5
20
95
Mill Valley
Sausalito
163
Fire weather
60.2
67
74.1
Novato
near Point Reyes Station
163
Composite
12.7
40.2
73.2
San Rafael
Kentfield
163
Independently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at 0.46% (90th percentile cell: 0.82%), with a mean conditional flame length of 2.79 ft. 55% of the 23,434 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.
Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).
CAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at 65 of the 163 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas. At 24 of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead; at the remaining 41 the hazard weight is renormalised away rather than scored as low.
163 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 100%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.
For a property
What a county range means for one address
This county page does not measure the condition of an individual home or lot.
What it does include are place-based factors tied to property exposure. Hazard zone scores range from 10.0 in Mill Valley to 90.0 in Kentfield, with a middle value of 40.0.
It also includes local fire history as a contributor to risk: scores range from 5.0 in Mill Valley to 95.0 in Sausalito, with a middle value of 20.0.
Across 163 sampled points in Marin County, the score runs from
12.7 to 73.2 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers.
A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.
Find out where your Marin County parcel sits
Slope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Coverage
ZIP codes we cover in Marin County
Every one of the 34 ZIP areas that touch Marin County — we run address-level
reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside
each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and not a score for any
property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.
Frequently asked questions about Marin County wildfire risk
What is the single most important fire to know here?
By size in this record, it is the Vision fire (1995) at 12,361 acres. The most recent large fire is Woodward (2020), at 4,907 acres.
How much of Marin County has burned in recent decades?
Since 1984, 23,655 acres have burned, which is 4.6% of the county.
Are all Marin communities at similar wildfire risk?
No. The places scored range from low values like San Rafael (12.7 median) to higher values like Fairfax (60.2 median).
Is this page giving a fire-weather forecast?
No. It reports wildfire risk conditions and contributors. Fire weather is one contributor, with scores from 60.2 to 74.1 in the places measured.
How does FEMA rate Marin County overall?
FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Marin County’s wildfire risk as Relatively Moderate, and its expected annual wildfire loss rating is also Relatively Moderate.
This page is generated from a Marin County data pack assembled on 2026-08-19 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the
county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a
substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's
underwriting judgement.
Data versions: fema_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.
What does your parcel look like, layer by layer?
A county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.
