Wildfire risk in Madera County: where it is highest, and why
Wildfire risk in Madera County spans a wide range from the valley floor to the Sierra foothills. In the places we scored, the lowest overall score was 17.6 in Madera, while the highest was 80.4 near Oakhurst.
Madera County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.
At a glance
Half of Madera County scores High or worse
We scored 156 points across Madera County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 4% of them come out Very High, while 26% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.
49%
21%
26%
Very High4% · 7 of 156 pointsHigh49% · 76 of 156 pointsModerate21% · 33 of 156 pointsLow26% · 40 of 156 points
Safest end we measured17.6near Madera · Low
Middle of the county51.1High — half of Madera County is above this
Most exposed end we measured80.4near Oakhurst · Very High
And the federal models agree it is a fire county
Relatively HighFEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 99.4 / 100
$23.0M / yrFEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively High
0.61%USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 1.63%
3.17 ftUSFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 89% of the county carries burnable fuel
FEMA NRI also rates Madera County: all-hazards risk Relatively High · social vulnerability Relatively High · community resilience Very Low · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0069.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.
What does your Madera County address score?
A county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Local context
What the data says about Madera County
Most scored locations fall in the High tier. There are 76 High locations, and the county also includes Moderate, Low, and 7 Very High locations.
Looking back over recorded fire perimeters, 14.9% of the county has burned since 1984. FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Madera County’s wildfire risk as Relatively High.
Fire record
Where the fires actually were
The largest fire listed for the county is the Ferguson fire (2018), at 97,729 acres.
The most recent large fire is the River fire (2021), at 9,655 acres.
The Creek fire (2020) is also important here: it burned 379,802 acres and was partly in Madera County.
Since 1984, the county has had 149 mapped fire perimeters, and those perimeters together cover 14.9% of the county.
Creek Fire, 2020 — Madera County.
Photo: California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire) · Public domainFerguson Fire, 2018 — Madera County.
Photo: Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC · Public domain
149mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984
204,464acres inside those perimeters since 1984
14.9%of the county's area, as a share of 5,545 km²
River 2021most recent large fire on record
Before 20002000s2010s2020s
Fire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size.
Named fires on record
Creek Fire2020379,802 acres in totalcrossed into the county
Ferguson Fire201897,729 acres
Harlow Fire196143,331 acres
Lions Fire201813,461 acres
French Fire201413,832 acres
Railroad Fire201712,371 acres
River Fire20219,655 acres
Willow Fire20155,701 acres
Perimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Ferguson 2018.
Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.
Communities
Where in the county you are matters most
For buyers and owners comparing towns, the biggest contrast is between the valley communities and the foothill communities. Madera and Chowchilla are lower in wildfire risk, while Oakhurst, North Fork, Bass Lake, and Coarsegold are notably higher.
That split lines up with where steeper terrain, heavier fuels, higher hazard-zone scores, and stronger fire-history scores appear in the county.
Oakhursttown · 5,945 people
72.8 High
North Forkvillage
67.8 High
Bass Lakevillage
63.2 High
Coarsegoldvillage · 4,144 people
62.9 High
Maderacity · 65,706 people
24.2 Low
Chowchillatown · 18,160 people
22.6 Low
The score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale
indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the
community's own record where the source carries one.
Terrain & fuels
Terrain, vegetation and fuels
Terrain is a major part of why risk changes across the county. Terrain scores run from 20.0 near Madera up to 65.0 near North Fork.
Vegetation and fuels show a similar split: 20.0 in Madera and 80.0 in North Fork. That pattern is associated with higher wildfire risk in the foothill and mountain communities.
State hazard-zone scores are much higher around Oakhurst (91.9) than near Madera (10.0).
Past fire footprint scores also separate these areas: near North Fork the score reaches 95.0, compared with 5.0 near Madera.
40median terrain score (max 65 near North Fork)
61.7median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near North Fork)
LANDFIRE existing vegetation type across Madera County — the same fuel data that feeds the
vegetation layer of a Satelife property report.
Fire weather
Fire weather across Madera County
Fire-weather scores were measured across the county, and they are tightly grouped. They range from 54.3 near Bass Lake to 56.2 near Madera, so this factor is fairly similar from place to place.
A separate USFS wildfire model reports a mean annual burn probability of 0.61%, with a 90th-percentile cell value of 1.63%. It also indicates 89.1% of the county can burn.
54.3lowest fire-weather score — near Bass Lake
56.2highest fire-weather score — near Madera
What drives it
Which part of the risk moves, and which doesn't
Risk differs a lot by community. Madera (24.2) and Chowchilla (22.6) sit on the lower end of county scores, while Oakhurst is much higher at 72.8.
Other foothill communities are also elevated: North Fork is 67.8, Coarsegold is 62.9, and Bass Lake is 63.2.
At the countywide extremes, the highest scored location is near Oakhurst at 80.4, and the lowest is in Madera at 17.6.
Each bar is what one part of the score covers across Madera County, on the same 0–100 scale.
A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same
almost everywhere.
Terrain
20–65highest near North Fork
Vegetation & fuels
20–80highest near North Fork
Hazard zone
10–91.9highest near Oakhurst
Fire history
5–95highest near North Fork
Fire weather
54.3–56.2highest near Madera
Overall score
17.6–80.4highest near Oakhurst
The tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50,
Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.
Show every number behind these bars
Layer
Min
Median
Max
Lowest place
Highest place
Points
Terrain
20
40
65
near Madera
near North Fork
156
Vegetation & fuels
20
61.7
80
Madera
North Fork
156
Hazard zone
10
47.5
91.9
near Madera
Oakhurst
156
Fire history
5
30
95
near Madera
near North Fork
156
Fire weather
54.3
56
56.2
near Bass Lake
near Madera
156
Composite
17.6
51.1
80.4
Madera
near Oakhurst
156
Independently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at 0.61% (90th percentile cell: 1.63%), with a mean conditional flame length of 3.17 ft. 89% of the 14,655 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.
Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).
CAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at 57 of the 156 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas. At 55 of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead; at the remaining 2 the hazard weight is renormalised away rather than scored as low.
156 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 100%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.
For a property
What a county range means for one address
At property scale, Madera County includes all four address-style risk tiers. The largest group of scored locations is High (76), and there are also Low (40) and Very High (7) locations, with Moderate locations in between.
For countywide context, FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Madera County as Relatively High for wildfire risk and Relatively High for expected annual loss from wildfire. FEMA also rates social vulnerability as Relatively High and community resilience as Very Low.
Across 156 sampled points in Madera County, the score runs from
17.6 to 80.4 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers.
A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.
Find out where your Madera County parcel sits
Slope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Coverage
ZIP codes we cover in Madera County
Every one of the 32 ZIP areas that touch Madera County — we run address-level
reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside
each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and not a score for any
property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.
Frequently asked questions about Madera County wildfire risk
What is the most recent large fire I should know about in Madera County?
The most recent large fire is the River fire (2021), which burned 9,655 acres.
How much of Madera County has burned?
14.9% of the county has burned since 1984, based on mapped fire perimeters.
Are wildfire risks similar across Madera County?
No. Scores are much lower in Madera and Chowchilla, and much higher in foothill communities like Oakhurst, North Fork, Bass Lake, and Coarsegold.
Is fire weather the main difference between places in this county?
Fire-weather scores are very similar across the county (54.3 to 56.2). Bigger place-to-place differences show up in terrain, vegetation/fuels, hazard-zone scores, and fire history.
How does FEMA rate the county overall?
FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Madera County as Relatively High for wildfire risk, Relatively High for wildfire expected annual loss, and Very Low for community resilience.
This page is generated from a Madera County data pack assembled on 2026-08-18 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the
county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a
substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's
underwriting judgement.
Data versions: fema_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.
What does your parcel look like, layer by layer?
A county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.
