Lake County, California

Wildfire risk in Lake County: where it is highest, and why

Wildfire risk in Lake County is generally elevated across the places we scored. The county’s middle score is 71.3, with results ranging from 17.6 in Lucerne to 84.1 in Spring Valley.

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Lake County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.

At a glance

Half of Lake County scores High or worse

We scored 161 points across Lake County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 39% of them come out Very High, while 2% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.

39%

54%

Very High 39% · 62 of 161 points High 54% · 87 of 161 points Moderate 6% · 9 of 161 points Low 2% · 3 of 161 points

Safest end we measured 17.6 near Lucerne · Low

Middle of the county 71.3 High — half of Lake County is above this

Most exposed end we measured 84.1 near Spring Valley · Very High

And the federal models agree it is a fire county

Relatively High FEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 99.1 / 100

$20.3M / yr FEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively High

1.88% USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 4.00%

6.19 ft USFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 95% of the county carries burnable fuel

FEMA NRI also rates Lake County: all-hazards risk Relatively Moderate · social vulnerability Relatively High · community resilience Relatively Low · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0169.

Sources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.

What does your Lake County address score?

A county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.

Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan

Local context

What the data says about Lake County

Most scored points fell in the High tier (87 points), followed by Very High (62 points). That pattern lines up with a county that has seen repeated fire activity over time.

Fire record

Where the fires actually were

Lake County has had 157 mapped fire perimeters since 1984, and 738,119 acres have burned in that period. In total, 87.2% of the county has burned since 1984.

The largest fire listed here is the Ranch Fire in 2018 at 410,202 acres. It is also the most recent large fire in this county record.

Other major fires tied to Lake County include the Doe Fire (2020), which burned 589,835 acres and was partly in the county, and the Valley Fire (2015), which burned 76,085 acres and destroyed 1,955 structures. The Rocky Fire (2015), River Fire (2018), Pawnee Fire (2018), Jerusalem Fire (2015), and Fork Fire (1996, partly in county) are also part of the county’s fire history.

Ranch Fire (2018) in Lake County, California - In a year of record-breaking fires, California scored another record on August 7, 2018, when the Mendocino Complex burst into the — **Ranch Fire, 2018** — Lake County. Photo: MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC · Public domain

Valley Fire (2015) in Lake County, California - The original finding aid described this as: Date Taken: 2015-09-25 00:19:10 UTC Photographer name: Adam DuBrowa City/State: Angele — **Valley Fire, 2015** — Lake County. Photo: Department of Homeland Security. Federal Emergency Management Agency. Public Affairs Division. 3/1/2003 · Public domain

157 mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984

738,119 acres inside those perimeters since 1984

87.2% of the county's area, as a share of 3,424.3 km²

Ranch 2018 most recent large fire on record

Named fires on record

Ranch Fire2018410,202 acres
Valley Fire201576,085 acres1,955 structures destroyed
Doe Fire2020589,835 acres in totalcrossed into the county
Rocky Fire201569,438 acres
River Fire201848,920 acres
Fork Fire199683,057 acres in totalcrossed into the county
Jerusalem Fire201525,118 acres
Pawnee Fire201815,197 acres

Perimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Ranch 2018. Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.

Communities

Where in the county you are matters most

Community-level results show meaningful differences around the county. Spring Valley (79.4), Cobb (78.6), and Midlakes (76.1) are among the higher-scored places listed here.

Lower-scored communities include Lucerne at 58.9 and Lakeport at 63.3, while Clearlake is higher at 73.9. These gaps are large enough that two homes in different towns can sit in clearly different wildfire-risk contexts.

Spring Valley village · 964 people

79.4 Very High

Cobb town · 1,778 people

78.6 Very High

Kelseyville village · 3,382 people

76.5 Very High

Midlakes village

76.1 Very High

Clearlake town · 16,636 people

73.9 High

Middletown village

72.6 High

Clearlake Oaks village · 2,551 people

72 High

Upper Lake village

68.5 High

Nice village · 2,929 people

68.2 High

Lakeport town · 5,026 people

63.3 High

1 more communities in Lake County

Lucerne village · 3,266 people

58.9 High

The score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the community's own record where the source carries one.

Terrain & fuels

Terrain, vegetation and fuels

Terrain scores in Lake County are mostly on the higher side, with a county middle value of 65.0. In the places scored, terrain runs from 40.0 in Middletown to 65.0 in Cobb.

Vegetation and fuels vary much more. That score ranges from 5.0 in Clearlake Oaks to 80.0 in Middletown, with a county middle value of 74.5.

65 median terrain score (max 65 near Cobb)

74.5 median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near Middletown)

Fire weather

Fire weather across Lake County

Fire weather was measured across the county, and scores are consistently elevated. Values run from 53.8 near Upper Lake to 65.2 in Spring Valley, with a middle value of 63.1.

A separate national model from the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities project reports a mean annual burn probability of 1.88% for Lake County, with a 90th-percentile cell at 4.00%. It also indicates that 95% of the county can burn.

53.8 lowest fire-weather score — near Upper Lake

65.2 highest fire-weather score — near Spring Valley

What drives it

Which part of the risk moves, and which doesn't

Risk is not uniform across Lake County. Among named communities, Spring Valley is at 79.4 while Lucerne is at 58.9, showing a wide local spread.

Several other communities cluster on the higher side, including Cobb at 78.6 and Kelseyville at 76.5, while Lakeport is lower at 63.3. For buyers and owners, that means neighborhood-level differences can be substantial even within the same county.

Each bar is what one part of the score covers across Lake County, on the same 0–100 scale. A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same almost everywhere.

Terrain

40–65 highest near Cobb

Vegetation & fuels

5–80 highest near Middletown

Hazard zone

10–96.3 highest near Spring Valley

Fire history

5–95 highest near Middletown

Fire weather

53.8–65.2 highest near Spring Valley

Overall score

17.6–84.1 highest near Spring Valley

The tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50, Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.

Show every number behind these bars

Layer	Min	Median	Max	Lowest place	Highest place	Points
Terrain	40	65	65	Middletown	Cobb	161
Vegetation & fuels	5	74.5	80	Clearlake Oaks	Middletown	161
Hazard zone	10	90	96.3	Clearlake	Spring Valley	161
Fire history	5	80	95	Lucerne	Middletown	161
Fire weather	53.8	63.1	65.2	near Upper Lake	Spring Valley	161
Composite	17.6	71.3	84.1	Lucerne	Spring Valley	161

Independently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at 1.88% (90th percentile cell: 4.00%), with a mean conditional flame length of 6.19 ft. 95% of the 20,828 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.

Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).

CAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at 62 of the 161 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas. At 62 of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead.

161 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 100%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.

For a property

What a county range means for one address

Two property-relevant factors are especially high in many parts of Lake County: hazard zone and past fire activity. Hazard-zone scores range from 10.0 in Clearlake to 96.3 in Spring Valley, with a county middle value of 90.0.

Fire-history scores show a similar pattern of elevated exposure over time. They range from 5.0 in Lucerne to 95.0 in Middletown, and the county middle value is 80.0.

FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Lake County’s wildfire risk as "Relatively High" and its wildfire expected annual loss as "Relatively High." FEMA also rates overall all-hazards risk as "Relatively Moderate," social vulnerability as "Relatively High," and community resilience as "Relatively Low."

Across 161 sampled points in Lake County, the score runs from 17.6 to 84.1 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers. A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.

Find out where your Lake County parcel sits

Slope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.

Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan

Coverage

ZIP codes we cover in Lake County

Every one of the 25 ZIP areas that touch Lake County — we run address-level reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and not a score for any property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.

Very High 4 ZIPs

High 10 ZIPs

No sampled point inside 11 ZIPs

94515 Middletown · 94558 · 94567 Middletown · 95425 Kelseyville · 95435 Kelseyville · 95448 Cobb · 95449 Lakeport · 95482 Midlakes · 95939 · 95979 Spring Valley · 95987 Spring Valley

Grouped from 14 of 25 ZIP areas — the rest had no sample point fall inside them. The community shown is the nearest mapped place to the ZIP's centre.

ZIP areas are Census 2020 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas intersecting the county boundary.

Where to go next

Lake County wildfire risk in context

California wildfire risk The statewide picture and every county page we publish Wildfire risk by state Every state and county we cover How Satelife calculates wildfire risk Data sources, layers, score composition, honest limits Create a wildfire evacuation plan Zones, egress routes, refuge areas Run a report for a Lake County address PDF + score + mitigation plan

FAQ

Frequently asked questions about Lake County wildfire risk

What do these wildfire scores mean?

They are 0–100 scores for wildfire risk, where higher numbers mean more exposure.

Is wildfire risk about the same everywhere in Lake County?

No. In the places scored, results range from 17.6 in Lucerne to 84.1 in Spring Valley.

What is the largest and most recent large fire in this county record?

Both are the Ranch Fire (2018), at 410,202 acres.

How much of Lake County has burned since 1984?

87.2% of the county has burned since 1984.

How does FEMA rate wildfire risk for Lake County?

FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Lake County wildfire risk as "Relatively High" and wildfire expected annual loss as "Relatively High."