Wildfire risk in Pima County: where it is highest, and why
Wildfire risk in Pima County varies widely from place to place. Across the places we scored, the lowest score is 25.5 at Pascua Pueblo, while the highest is 80.7 near Sasabe.
Pima County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.
At a glance
Half of Pima County scores Moderate or worse
We scored 176 points across Pima County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 3% of them come out Very High, while 56% are Moderate. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.
41%
56%
Very High3% · 5 of 176 pointsHigh41% · 72 of 176 pointsModerate56% · 99 of 176 points
Safest end we measured25.5near Pascua Pueblo · Moderate
Middle of the county47.8Moderate — half of Pima County is above this
Most exposed end we measured80.7near Sasabe · Very High
And the federal models agree it is a fire county
Relatively HighFEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 99.7 / 100
$37.6M / yrFEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively High
0.36%USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 1.05%
3.81 ftUSFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 83% of the county carries burnable fuel
FEMA NRI also rates Pima County: all-hazards risk Relatively High · social vulnerability Relatively Moderate · community resilience Relatively Low · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0043.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.
What does your Pima County address score?
A county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Local context
What the data says about Pima County
Most scored locations fall in the Moderate tier, with 99 points there and 72 in High.
A smaller set of places are in Very High, with 5 points in that tier and no locations in Low.
For countywide context, FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Pima County’s wildfire risk as "Relatively High."
Fire record
Where the fires actually were
Fire has been a meaningful part of the county’s history. Since 1984, 564,850 acres have burned, which is 9.6% of Pima County, across 235 mapped fire perimeters.
The largest fire listed here is the Bighorn fire in 2020, at 119,541 acres. The most recent large fire is Gallineta in 2023.
Other large fires in the county records include Aspen at 69,370 acres and Sawmill at 47,027 acres.
Bighorn Fire, 2020 — Pima County.
Photo: Pierre Markuse from Hamm, Germany · CC BY 2.0Sawmill Fire, 2017 — Pima County.
Photo: Southwest Area Incident Management Team · Public domain
235mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984
564,850acres inside those perimeters since 1984
9.6%of the county's area, as a share of 23,713.8 km²
Gallineta 2023most recent large fire on record
Before 20002000s2010s2020s
Fire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size.
Named fires on record
Bighorn Fire2020119,541 acres
Sawmill Fire201747,027 acres
Aspen Fire200369,370 acres
Contreras Fire202229,482 acres
Burro Fire201727,238 acres
Bullock Fire200228,957 acres
Encinos Fire202014,983 acres
Brown Fire201615,408 acres
Perimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Bighorn 2020.
Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.
Communities
Where in the county you are matters most
Tucson, the largest city at 550,306 people, has a typical wildfire-risk score of 33.2, while Oro Valley is higher at 49.5.
Marana is 44.3 and Sahuarita is 32.9, with Vail at 45.5.
Ajo is 42.8, and Sells / Komkcʼeḍ ʼe-Wa:ʼosidk is 47.0.
Among smaller villages shown here, Wahak Hotrontk is 56.9 and Haivana Nakya is 54.9.
Sasabevillage · 54 people
66.1 High
Wahak Hotrontkvillage
56.9 High
Haivana Nakyavillage
54.9 High
San Miguelvillage
51.2 High
Green Valleytown
50 High
Gu Vovillage
50 High
Oro Valleytown · 47,070 people
49.5 Moderate
Pascua Pueblovillage
48.1 Moderate
Hickiwanvillage
47.4 Moderate
Corona de Tucsonvillage · 5,675 people
47.3 Moderate
16 more communities in Pima County
Sells / Komkcʼeḍ ʼe-Wa:ʼosidktown
47 Moderate
Topawa / Ḍo Bawuivillage
46.4 Moderate
Santa Rosa / Kaij Mekvillage
45.8 Moderate
Vailvillage · 13,604 people
45.5 Moderate
Maranatown · 62,302 people
44.3 Moderate
Pisinemovillage
44.1 Moderate
San Xavier / Wa:kvillage
44 Moderate
Ajotown · 3,039 people
42.8 Moderate
Catalinavillage · 7,551 people
42.7 Moderate
Picture Rocksvillage · 9,551 people
42.2 Moderate
Avra Valleyvillage · 5,569 people
41.9 Moderate
Lukevillevillage
41.5 Moderate
Whyvillage
35.2 Moderate
South Tucsonvillage · 5,571 people
33.6 Moderate
Tucsoncity · 550,306 people
33.2 Moderate
Sahuaritatown · 25,259 people
32.9 Moderate
The score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale
indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the
community's own record where the source carries one.
Terrain & fuels
Terrain, vegetation and fuels
Terrain contributes to risk in many parts of the county. Terrain scores run from 40.0 in Lukeville to 65.0 near Sasabe.
Vegetation and fuels also contribute strongly in many places, with 80.0 in San Miguel and 20.0 in South Tucson.
Where terrain and fuels are both higher, wildfire risk is generally higher as well.
65median terrain score (max 65 near Sasabe)
80median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near San Miguel)
Fire weather
Fire weather across Pima County
Fire weather could not be measured across Pima County.
It was measured at one place, near Sasabe, where the score was 65.7. That single reading is not enough to describe fire weather in other parts of the county.
Separately, a U.S. Forest Service wildfire model reports a mean annual burn probability of 0.36% for the county, with 1.05% at the 90th percentile cell.
In that same model, 82.5% of the county is in places that can burn.
Fire weather was measured at 1 of the 176 sampled points
(near Sasabe, 65.7) — too
few to publish as a county range, so no high/low is shown here.
What drives it
Which part of the risk moves, and which doesn't
Risk is not the same across communities. Sasabe has a typical score of 66.1, while Tucson is lower at 33.2.
Green Valley is at 50.0 and Oro Valley at 49.5, while Marana is at 44.3.
On the lower end among named places, Why is 35.2 and South Tucson is 33.6.
Each bar is what one part of the score covers across Pima County, on the same 0–100 scale.
A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same
almost everywhere.
Terrain
40–65highest near Sasabe
Vegetation & fuels
20–80highest near San Miguel
Hazard zone
10–75.4highest near Marana
Fire history
5–95highest near Sasabe
Fire weather
65.7 at one pointhighest near Sasabe
Overall score
25.5–80.7highest near Sasabe
The tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50,
Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.
Show every number behind these bars
Layer
Min
Median
Max
Lowest place
Highest place
Points
Terrain
40
65
65
Lukeville
near Sasabe
176
Vegetation & fuels
20
80
80
South Tucson
San Miguel
176
Hazard zone
10
32.3
75.4
near Sasabe
Marana
176
Fire history
5
5
95
San Miguel
near Sasabe
176
Fire weather*
—
—
65.7
—
near Sasabe
1
Composite
25.5
47.8
80.7
Pascua Pueblo
near Sasabe
176
*Fire weather returned a reading at only 1 of the 176 sampled points. The one
value measured is shown under Max with the place beside it; there is no county range to
report, so the other columns are left blank.
Independently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at 0.36% (90th percentile cell: 1.05%), with a mean conditional flame length of 3.81 ft. 83% of the 29,015 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.
Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).
CAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at 176 of the 176 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas, and most of this county is state or federal land. At 137 of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead; at the remaining 39 the hazard weight is renormalised away rather than scored as low.
176 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 90%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.
For a property
What a county range means for one address
Property-level context can change quickly inside the same county. Hazard-zone scores range from 75.4 in Marana to 10.0 near Sasabe.
Fire-history scores are also uneven: near Sasabe is 95.0, while San Miguel is 5.0.
For countywide framing, FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Pima County’s wildfire expected annual loss as "Relatively High," and the U.S. Forest Service model shows a mean conditional flame length of 3.81 feet.
Across 176 sampled points in Pima County, the score runs from
25.5 to 80.7 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers.
A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.
Find out where your Pima County parcel sits
Slope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Coverage
ZIP codes we cover in Pima County
Every one of the 65 ZIP areas that touch Pima County — we run address-level
reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside
each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and not a score for any
property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.
Frequently asked questions about Pima County wildfire risk
How much of Pima County has burned since 1984?
A total of 564,850 acres has burned since 1984, which equals 9.6% of the county.
What are the most important recent fire names to know here?
The largest listed fire is Bighorn (2020) at 119,541 acres. The most recent large fire is Gallineta (2023).
Is wildfire risk mostly low across the county?
No. Most scored locations are in Moderate (99 points), and many are in High (72 points).
Do we have fire-weather scores for the whole county?
No. Fire weather was measured at only one location, near Sasabe, with a score of 65.7, so it could not be measured across the county.
What does FEMA say about countywide wildfire risk?
FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Pima County’s wildfire risk as "Relatively High" and its wildfire expected annual loss as "Relatively High."
This page is generated from a Pima County data pack assembled on 2026-09-05 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the
county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a
substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's
underwriting judgement.
Data versions: fema_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.
What does your parcel look like, layer by layer?
A county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.
![Bighorn Fire (2020) in Pima County, Arizona - Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data [2020], processed by <a href=" https://twitter.com/Pierre_Markuse " rel="noreferrer](/images/wildfire-risk/arizona/pima-county/photos/bighorn-fire-arizona-usa-june-18th-2020-50022001048.webp)
