Wildfire risk in Navajo County: where it is highest, and why
Wildfire risk in Navajo County spans a wide range across the places we scored. The county’s middle score is 47.5, with lower-scoring locations down to 21.2 in Snowflake and higher-scoring locations up to 78.2 in Heber–Overgaard, Arizona.
Navajo County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.
At a glance
Half of Navajo County scores Moderate or worse
We scored 197 points across Navajo County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 2% of them come out Very High, while 1% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.
37%
60%
Very High2% · 4 of 197 pointsHigh37% · 72 of 197 pointsModerate60% · 119 of 197 pointsLow1% · 2 of 197 points
Safest end we measured21.2near Snowflake · Low
Middle of the county47.5Moderate — half of Navajo County is above this
Most exposed end we measured78.2near Heber–Overgaard, Arizona · Very High
And the federal models agree it is a fire county
Relatively HighFEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 98.8 / 100
$12.3M / yrFEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively High
0.45%USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 1.54%
5.88 ftUSFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 100% of the county carries burnable fuel
FEMA NRI also rates Navajo County: all-hazards risk Relatively Moderate · social vulnerability Very High · community resilience Very Low · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0044.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.
What does your Navajo County address score?
A county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Local context
What the data says about Navajo County
Most scored places fall in the Moderate tier (119 points), followed by High (72 points). FEMA’s National Risk Index rates the county’s wildfire risk as Relatively High, and also rates expected annual wildfire loss as Relatively High.
Fire record
Where the fires actually were
Since 1984, 510,434 acres have burned in Navajo County, and that equals 8% of the county. Over that same period, there have been 104 mapped fire perimeters.
The largest fire listed here is Rodeo-Chediski (2002), at 460,563 acres.
The most recent large fire is Wyrick (2021), at 7,593 acres.
Rodeo-Chediski Fire, 2002 — Navajo County.
Photo: Sensor: Landsat 7/ETM+
Credit: Image by Jesse Allen, based on data courtesy Landsat 7 Science Team, NASA GSFC. · Public domain
104mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984
510,434acres inside those perimeters since 1984
8.0%of the county's area, as a share of 25,671.1 km²
Wyrick 2021most recent large fire on record
Before 20002000s2010s2020s
Fire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size.
Named fires on record
Rodeo-Chediski Fire2002460,563 acres
Carrizo Fire197155,118 acres
Wyrick Fire20217,593 acres
377 Fire20185,152 acres
Hub Point Fire20185,057 acres
Potato Fire20066,165 acres
Rocky Fire20193,702 acres
Fill Fire20163,246 acres
Perimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Rodeo-Chediski 2002.
Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.
Communities
Where in the county you are matters most
Among the larger named places, Winslow scores higher at 60.1, while Show Low is 50.5 and Snowflake is 44.8. That gives buyers and owners a quick sense that nearby markets can sit in different risk bands.
Several smaller communities score higher than many towns. Heber–Overgaard, Arizona is 67.5 and Oraibi is 68.1, while Kayenta is lower at 38.7.
Oraibivillage
68.1 High
Heber–Overgaard, Arizonavillage
67.5 High
North Forkvillage
60.9 High
Hondahvillage
60.4 High
Winslowtown · 9,005 people
60.1 High
Hotevillavillage
60.1 High
Indian Pinevillage
59.5 High
Turkey Creekvillage
59.5 High
East Fork / Hawúʼishįįhévillage
58.4 High
Bacavivillage
55 High
37 more communities in Navajo County
Pinetop Country Clubvillage
54.6 High
Cibecue / Dishchiiʼ Bikohvillage
54.4 High
Lake of the Woodsvillage
53.6 High
Keams Canyonvillage · 304 people
53.1 High
Rainbow Cityvillage
52.9 High
Kykotsmovivillage
52.1 High
Spider Mound / Yuwehloo Pahkivillage
50.7 High
Show Lowcity · 11,732 people
50.5 High
Whiteriver / Chʼilwózhtown · 4,104 people
50.5 High
Oljato-Monument Valleyvillage
50.4 High
Pinetop-Lakesidevillage · 4,442 people
49.3 Moderate
Low Mountainvillage
48.4 Moderate
Torevavillage
48.1 Moderate
Whippoorwill Springsvillage
48.1 Moderate
Shipaulovi / Supawlavivillage
48 Moderate
Greasewoodvillage
47.6 Moderate
Polaccavillage
46.2 Moderate
Shungopavivillage
46.2 Moderate
Pinonvillage · 1,084 people
46 Moderate
White Conevillage
46 Moderate
Mishongnovivillage
45.6 Moderate
Hard Rock / Tsé Dildǫ́ʼívillage
45.5 Moderate
Snowflaketown · 5,764 people
44.8 Moderate
Seba Dalkaivillage
44.8 Moderate
Black Mesa / Kitsʼiilívillage
43.7 Moderate
Dilkǫǫhvillage
42.3 Moderate
Wagon Wheelvillage
42.2 Moderate
Holbrooktown · 5,154 people
41.4 Moderate
Indian Wellsvillage
41.1 Moderate
Joseph Citytown · 1,386 people
40.5 Moderate
Forest Lake / Tsinyiʼ Beʼekʼidvillage
40.4 Moderate
Jedditovillage
40.1 Moderate
Tees Tohvillage
39.6 Moderate
Shontovillage · 494 people
39.5 Moderate
Kayentatown · 5,189 people
38.7 Moderate
Chilchinbetovillage
38.5 Moderate
Taylorvillage · 3,995 people
30 Moderate
The score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale
indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the
community's own record where the source carries one.
Terrain & fuels
Terrain, vegetation and fuels
Terrain scores are fairly tight in Navajo County, from 55.0 near Turkey Creek to 65.0 near Cibecue / Dishchiiʼ Bikoh. That points to some topographic variation, but not an extreme countywide spread.
Vegetation and fuels show a bigger split. This factor is as low as 20.0 in Winslow and reaches 80.0 in Snowflake, with a county middle value of 75.4.
55median terrain score (max 65 near Cibecue / Dishchiiʼ Bikoh)
75.4median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near Snowflake)
Fire weather
Fire weather across Navajo County
Fire weather was not measured at the sampled points in Navajo County. The other four
indicators on this page were, and the bars below show what they found.
What drives it
Which part of the risk moves, and which doesn't
Risk is not the same from one part of the county to another. In the hazard-zone factor, scores run from 10.0 near Holbrook to 94.3 near Lake of the Woods.
Recent and past burn patterns also vary sharply by location. In the fire-history factor, scores range from 5.0 near Turkey Creek to 95.0 in Heber–Overgaard, Arizona.
Each bar is what one part of the score covers across Navajo County, on the same 0–100 scale.
A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same
almost everywhere.
Terrain
55–65highest near Cibecue / Dishchiiʼ Bikoh
Vegetation & fuels
20–80highest near Snowflake
Hazard zone
10–94.3highest near Lake of the Woods
Fire history
5–95highest near Heber–Overgaard, Arizona
Overall score
21.2–78.2highest near Heber–Overgaard, Arizona
The tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50,
Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.
Show every number behind these bars
Layer
Min
Median
Max
Lowest place
Highest place
Points
Terrain
55
55
65
near Turkey Creek
near Cibecue / Dishchiiʼ Bikoh
194
Vegetation & fuels
20
75.4
80
Winslow
Snowflake
197
Hazard zone
10
38
94.3
near Holbrook
near Lake of the Woods
197
Fire history
5
5
95
near Turkey Creek
Heber–Overgaard, Arizona
197
Composite
21.2
47.5
78.2
Snowflake
Heber–Overgaard, Arizona
197
Independently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at 0.45% (90th percentile cell: 1.54%), with a mean conditional flame length of 5.88 ft. 100% of the 32,287 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.
Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).
CAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at 197 of the 197 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas, and most of this county is state or federal land. At 172 of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead; at the remaining 25 the hazard weight is renormalised away rather than scored as low.
197 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 90%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.
For a property
What a county range means for one address
For individual properties, expect a mixed pattern rather than one single county number. Only 4 scored points fell in the Very High tier, and 2 fell in Low, with most locations between those ends.
A countywide fire-weather score was not measured at all for Navajo County.
A separate U.S. Forest Service wildfire model reports a mean annual burn probability of 0.45%, with a 90th-percentile cell at 1.54%. It also indicates that 99.5% of the county is in places that can burn.
Across 197 sampled points in Navajo County, the score runs from
21.2 to 78.2 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers.
A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.
Find out where your Navajo County parcel sits
Slope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Coverage
ZIP codes we cover in Navajo County
Every one of the 38 ZIP areas that touch Navajo County — we run address-level
reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside
each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and not a score for any
property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.
Frequently asked questions about Navajo County wildfire risk
How much of Navajo County has burned since 1984?
8% of the county has burned since 1984, totaling 510,434 acres.
What is the largest fire listed for this county?
Rodeo-Chediski (2002) is the largest listed fire, at 460,563 acres.
What is the most recent large fire listed?
Wyrick (2021) is the most recent large fire listed, at 7,593 acres.
Is fire weather included in these county scores?
No. A countywide fire-weather score was not measured for Navajo County. The page does include a separate U.S. Forest Service burn-probability estimate, which is different from fire weather.
This page is generated from a Navajo County data pack assembled on 2026-09-05 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the
county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a
substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's
underwriting judgement.
Data versions: fema_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.
What does your parcel look like, layer by layer?
A county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.
