Wildfire risk in Coconino County: where it is highest, and why
Wildfire risk in Coconino County spans a wide range across the places we scored. The overall scores run from 24.4 in Page to 82.4 near Fort Valley, with a county midpoint of 50.8.
Coconino County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.
At a glance
Half of Coconino County scores High or worse
We scored 183 points across Coconino County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 11% of them come out Very High, while 1% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.
11%
39%
49%
Very High11% · 21 of 183 pointsHigh39% · 72 of 183 pointsModerate49% · 89 of 183 pointsLow1% · 1 of 183 points
Safest end we measured24.4near Page · Low
Middle of the county50.8High — half of Coconino County is above this
Most exposed end we measured82.4near Fort Valley · Very High
And the federal models agree it is a fire county
Relatively HighFEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 99.4 / 100
$28.5M / yrFEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively High
0.58%USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 2.02%
6 ftUSFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 99% of the county carries burnable fuel
FEMA NRI also rates Coconino County: all-hazards risk Relatively Moderate · social vulnerability Relatively Moderate · community resilience Relatively Moderate · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0112.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.
What does your Coconino County address score?
A county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Local context
What the data says about Coconino County
Most scored points fall in the Moderate tier (89 points), followed by High (72 points). FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Coconino County’s wildfire risk as Relatively High for the county as a whole.
FEMA also rates the county’s expected annual loss from wildfire as Relatively High, while its all-hazards risk is Relatively Moderate. Those are county-wide FEMA ratings, not neighborhood-level ratings.
Fire record
Where the fires actually were
The largest fire listed for Coconino County is Dragon Bravo (2025), at 145,504 acres.
The most recent large fire is Pocket (2026), at 27,393 acres. That is the most recent large fire in this county record.
Since 1984, there have been 965 recorded fire perimeters in the county. Over that period, 13.6% of the county has burned.
Dragon Bravo Fire, 2025 — Coconino County.
Photo: Dragon Bravo fire photo by M. Quinn and courtesy of the National Park Service. Story by Adam Voiland. · Public domainRafael Fire, 2021 — Coconino County.
Photo: InciWeb · Public domain
965mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984
1,615,296acres inside those perimeters since 1984
13.6%of the county's area, as a share of 48,099.4 km²
Pocket 2026most recent large fire on record
Before 20002000s2010s2020s
Fire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size.
Named fires on record
Dragon Bravo Fire2025145,504 acres
Rafael Fire202178,064 acres
Mangum Fire202071,448 acres
White Sage Fire202558,985 acres
Pocket Fire202627,393 acres
Jack Fire201633,761 acres
Pipeline Fire202226,532 acres
Warm Fire200639,112 acres
Perimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Dragon Bravo 2025.
Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.
Communities
Where in the county you are matters most
Among named communities, some of the higher overall wildfire risk scores are in Munds Park (78.9), Fort Valley (76.9), and Doney Park (73.0).
In other communities, scores are lower, including Fredonia (31.2) and LeChee (37.5). Page is 48.0, closer to the county’s middle range.
Flagstaff is 55.9 and Williams is 57.2, while Sedona is higher at 66.2. So even among larger, familiar places, wildfire risk levels differ meaningfully.
Munds Parkvillage · 1,250 people
78.9 Very High
Fort Valleyvillage · 1,682 people
76.9 Very High
Bellemontvillage · 1,167 people
76.9 Very High
Doney Parkvillage · 5,910 people
73 High
Timberline-Fernwoodvillage · 2,572 people
72.6 High
Tolani Lakevillage
72.6 High
Tusayanvillage · 603 people
69.5 High
Parksvillage · 1,382 people
68.2 High
Bird Springsvillage
66.7 High
Kachina Villagevillage · 2,664 people
66.4 High
23 more communities in Coconino County
Sedonatown · 9,684 people
66.2 High
Williamstown · 3,202 people
57.2 High
Mountain View Ranchesvillage · 1,508 people
56.6 High
Grand Canyon Villagevillage · 1,784 people
56 High
Flagstaffcity · 76,831 people
55.9 High
Mountainairevillage · 1,014 people
52.9 High
Cow Springsvillage
50.8 High
Moenkopivillage · 771 people
50 High
Tuba Citytown · 8,072 people
48.7 Moderate
Kaibetovillage · 1,963 people
48.7 Moderate
Pagecity · 7,422 people
48 Moderate
Coal Mine Mesa / Łeejin Haagéédvillage
47.2 Moderate
Vallevillage · 759 people
46.3 Moderate
Cameronvillage · 734 people
46 Moderate
Inscription Housevillage
45.7 Moderate
Red Lakevillage · 1,680 people
44 Moderate
Tonaleavillage
43.7 Moderate
Supaivillage
42.6 Moderate
Greenehavenvillage · 381 people
42.3 Moderate
Kaibab Estates Westvillage · 1,034 people
41 Moderate
LeCheevillage · 1,443 people
37.5 Moderate
Bitter Springsvillage
36.9 Moderate
Fredoniavillage · 1,323 people
31.2 Moderate
The score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale
indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the
community's own record where the source carries one.
Terrain & fuels
Terrain, vegetation and fuels
Terrain scores are relatively tight in this county, with a midpoint of 55.0 and a high of 65.0 near Bird Springs. This suggests terrain contributes to risk in many areas rather than only one corner of the county.
Vegetation and fuels vary more. The midpoint is 74.2, with a low of 20.0 in Flagstaff and a high of 80.0 in unincorporated Coconino County.
Fire weather was not measured for this county in the places we scored.
Fire weather was not measured at the sampled points in Coconino County. The other four
indicators on this page were, and the bars below show what they found.
What drives it
Which part of the risk moves, and which doesn't
Risk is not uniform across Coconino County. At the low end of the places we scored is Page at 24.4, while the high end reaches 82.4 near Fort Valley.
By tier counts, Moderate is the most common level (89 points), and only 1 point is in Low. Very High appears too, with 21 points, so higher-exposure pockets are part of the county pattern.
Each bar is what one part of the score covers across Coconino County, on the same 0–100 scale.
A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same
almost everywhere.
Terrain
55–65highest near Bird Springs
Vegetation & fuels
20–80highest near unincorporated Coconino County
Hazard zone
10–97.5highest near unincorporated Coconino County
Fire history
5–95highest near Munds Park
Overall score
24.4–82.4highest near Fort Valley
The tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50,
Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.
Show every number behind these bars
Layer
Min
Median
Max
Lowest place
Highest place
Points
Terrain
55
55
65
unincorporated Coconino County
near Bird Springs
183
Vegetation & fuels
20
74.2
80
Flagstaff
unincorporated Coconino County
183
Hazard zone
10
36.8
97.5
near Bird Springs
unincorporated Coconino County
183
Fire history
5
5
95
unincorporated Coconino County
Munds Park
183
Composite
24.4
50.8
82.4
Page
near Fort Valley
183
Independently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at 0.58% (90th percentile cell: 2.02%), with a mean conditional flame length of 6 ft. 99% of the 27,001 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.
Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).
CAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at 183 of the 183 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas, and most of this county is state or federal land. At 140 of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead; at the remaining 43 the hazard weight is renormalised away rather than scored as low.
183 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 90%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.
For a property
What a county range means for one address
Hazard-zone scores cover a broad span in Coconino County, from 10.0 near Bird Springs up to 97.5 in unincorporated Coconino County. The county midpoint is 36.8.
Fire-history scores are low in many places, with both the minimum and midpoint at 5.0, but they rise to 95.0 in Munds Park. That pattern shows past-burn exposure is concentrated in specific locations.
In the U.S. Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities model, mean annual burn probability is 0.58%, and the 90th-percentile cell is 2.02%. Also, 99.3% of the county is in areas that can burn.
That same model reports a mean conditional flame length of 6.0 feet, which is another county-level indicator of potential fire behavior where burning occurs.
Across 183 sampled points in Coconino County, the score runs from
24.4 to 82.4 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers.
A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.
Find out where your Coconino County parcel sits
Slope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Coverage
ZIP codes we cover in Coconino County
Every one of the 41 ZIP areas that touch Coconino County — we run address-level
reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside
each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and not a score for any
property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.
Frequently asked questions about Coconino County wildfire risk
Does a higher score mean higher wildfire risk?
Yes. Scores run from 0 to 100, and higher scores mean greater wildfire exposure.
What does FEMA say about wildfire risk in Coconino County?
FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Coconino County’s wildfire risk as Relatively High, and its expected annual loss from wildfire as Relatively High.
How much of Coconino County has burned since 1984?
13.6% of the county has burned since 1984.
What are the key recent fires to know in this county?
The largest listed fire is Dragon Bravo (2025) at 145,504 acres. The most recent large fire is Pocket (2026) at 27,393 acres.
Is fire weather included here?
No. Fire weather was not measured for this county in the places we scored.
This page is generated from a Coconino County data pack assembled on 2026-09-05 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the
county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a
substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's
underwriting judgement.
Data versions: fema_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.
What does your parcel look like, layer by layer?
A county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.
