Wildfire risk in Cochise County: where it is highest, and why
Wildfire risk in Cochise County spans a wide range across the places we scored. The lowest overall score is 26.2 in Douglas, while the highest is 84.3 in Sierra Vista Estates. The middle point is 55.2, so many locations sit in a moderate-to-high band rather than at either extreme.
Cochise County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.
At a glance
Half of Cochise County scores High or worse
We scored 166 points across Cochise County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 4% of them come out Very High, while 20% are Moderate. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.
75%
20%
Very High4% · 7 of 166 pointsHigh75% · 125 of 166 pointsModerate20% · 34 of 166 points
Safest end we measured26.2near Douglas · Moderate
Middle of the county55.2High — half of Cochise County is above this
Most exposed end we measured84.3near Sierra Vista Estates · Very High
And the federal models agree it is a fire county
Relatively HighFEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 99.2 / 100
$19.4M / yrFEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively High
1.05%USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 1.95%
4.76 ftUSFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 88% of the county carries burnable fuel
FEMA NRI also rates Cochise County: all-hazards risk Relatively Moderate · social vulnerability Relatively High · community resilience Very Low · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0089.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.
What does your Cochise County address score?
A county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Local context
What the data says about Cochise County
Most scored locations fall in the High tier, with 125 points there. Moderate has 34 points, and Very High has 7 points. None of the scored points fell in the Low tier.
For county-wide context, FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Cochise County’s wildfire risk as "Relatively High" and its wildfire expected annual loss as "Relatively High." In the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities product, mean annual burn probability is 1.05%, with 1.95% at the 90th-percentile cell.
Fire record
Where the fires actually were
Since 1984, 742,352 acres have burned in Cochise County, and that equals 18.7% of the county. The county record also shows 273 fire perimeters over that period.
The largest fire listed is Horseshoe 2 (2011), at 222,990 acres. Another major fire in the county record is Monument (2011), at 32,074 acres.
The most recent large fire entry is listed as Unknown (9999).
Horseshoe 2 Fire, 2011 — Cochise County.
Photo: ISS Expedition 27 crew · Public domainMonument Fire, 2011 — Cochise County.
Photo: The National Guard · Public domain
273mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984
742,352acres inside those perimeters since 1984
18.7%of the county's area, as a share of 16,042.3 km²
Unknown 9999most recent large fire on record
Before 20002000s2010s2020s
Fire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size.
Named fires on record
Horseshoe 2 Fire2011222,990 acres
Horseshoe2 Fire2011222,954 acres
Monument Fire201132,074 acres
Lizard Fire201715,230 acres
Hog Fire200916,750 acres
Walnut Fire202110,660 acres
Swisshelms Fire201710,954 acres
Rattlesnake Fire199425,147 acres
Perimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Horseshoe 2 2011.
Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.
Communities
Where in the county you are matters most
Among named communities, the higher overall scores include Miracle Valley at 77.4, Huachuca City at 74.8, and Nicksville at 73.6.
On the lower end, Douglas is 38.9 and San Simon is 41.8, while Sierra Vista is closer to the county middle at 56.5. That spread shows why two towns in the same county can still face different wildfire risk conditions.
Miracle Valleyvillage
77.4 Very High
Huachuca Cityvillage · 1,626 people
74.8 High
Nicksvillevillage
73.6 High
Sierra Vista Estatesvillage
69.7 High
Tombstonevillage · 1,571 people
62 High
Bisbeetown
61.7 High
Bensontown
60.4 High
Willcoxtown · 3,769 people
59 High
Sierra Vistacity · 45,308 people
56.5 High
Bowievillage · 449 people
56.4 High
6 more communities in Cochise County
McNealvillage
54.2 High
Pirtlevillevillage · 1,550 people
53.8 High
Whetstonevillage · 3,236 people
51.7 High
Nacovillage
50.3 High
San Simonvillage · 165 people
41.8 Moderate
Douglastown · 16,534 people
38.9 Moderate
The score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale
indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the
community's own record where the source carries one.
Terrain & fuels
Terrain, vegetation and fuels
Fire weather was not measured at all in the county results shown here.
What was measured does show terrain differences: terrain scores run from 55.0 near Nicksville to 65.0 at Naco, with the middle value at 65.0.
Vegetation and fuels vary more. Scores go from 20.0 in Douglas to 80.0 near Douglas, and the middle value is 73.1. In practical terms, fuels are one of the stronger contributors to why nearby places can have different wildfire risk.
65median terrain score (max 65 near Naco)
73.1median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near Douglas)
Fire weather
Fire weather across Cochise County
Fire weather was not measured at the sampled points in Cochise County. The other four
indicators on this page were, and the bars below show what they found.
What drives it
Which part of the risk moves, and which doesn't
Risk is not uniform across Cochise County. In the places scored, Douglas is at the low end with 26.2, while Sierra Vista Estates is at the high end with 84.3.
Hazard-zone scores also vary sharply by location, from 10.0 near Nicksville to 95.4 in Sierra Vista Estates. The middle hazard-zone value is 49.6.
Fire-history scores show a similar spread: 5.0 in Naco and 95.0 near Nicksville, with a middle value of 30.0.
Each bar is what one part of the score covers across Cochise County, on the same 0–100 scale.
A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same
almost everywhere.
Terrain
55–65highest near Naco
Vegetation & fuels
20–80highest near Douglas
Hazard zone
10–95.4highest near Sierra Vista Estates
Fire history
5–95highest near Nicksville
Overall score
26.2–84.3highest near Sierra Vista Estates
The tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50,
Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.
Show every number behind these bars
Layer
Min
Median
Max
Lowest place
Highest place
Points
Terrain
55
65
65
near Nicksville
Naco
166
Vegetation & fuels
20
73.1
80
Douglas
near Douglas
166
Hazard zone
10
49.6
95.4
near Nicksville
Sierra Vista Estates
166
Fire history
5
30
95
Naco
near Nicksville
166
Composite
26.2
55.2
84.3
Douglas
Sierra Vista Estates
166
Independently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at 1.05% (90th percentile cell: 1.95%), with a mean conditional flame length of 4.76 ft. 88% of the 39,806 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.
Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).
CAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at 166 of the 166 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas, and most of this county is state or federal land. At 141 of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead; at the remaining 25 the hazard weight is renormalised away rather than scored as low.
166 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 90%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.
For a property
What a county range means for one address
For property-level context, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities product indicates 87.9% of Cochise County can burn. It reports a mean annual burn probability of 1.05% and a mean conditional flame length of 4.76 feet.
County-wide community conditions in FEMA’s National Risk Index are also relevant when comparing properties: social vulnerability is rated "Relatively High" and community resilience is rated "Very Low." FEMA’s all-hazards county rating is "Relatively Moderate."
Across 166 sampled points in Cochise County, the score runs from
26.2 to 84.3 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers.
A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.
Find out where your Cochise County parcel sits
Slope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Coverage
ZIP codes we cover in Cochise County
Every one of the 29 ZIP areas that touch Cochise County — we run address-level
reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside
each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and not a score for any
property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.
Frequently asked questions about Cochise County wildfire risk
Does Cochise County have any Low-tier wildfire risk areas?
In the places scored here, no points fell in the Low tier. Most points are in High, with smaller counts in Moderate and Very High.
What are the key fires to know in this county?
The largest listed fire is Horseshoe 2 (2011) at 222,990 acres. The most recent large fire entry is shown as Unknown (9999).
Was fire weather included in these county scores?
No. Fire weather was not measured at all in the county results shown here.
Is FEMA’s rating a score for my neighborhood?
No. FEMA’s National Risk Index ratings are county-wide ratings. For Cochise County, FEMA rates wildfire risk as "Relatively High."
This page is generated from a Cochise County data pack assembled on 2026-09-05 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the
county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a
substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's
underwriting judgement.
Data versions: fema_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.
What does your parcel look like, layer by layer?
A county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.
