Wildfire risk in Apache County: where it is highest, and why
Wildfire risk scores on this page run from 0 to 100, with higher scores meaning more exposure. For Apache County, the middle score across the places we scored is 47.1.
Apache County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.
At a glance
Half of Apache County scores Moderate or worse
We scored 190 points across Apache County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 4% of them come out Very High, while 1% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.
32%
64%
Very High4% · 7 of 190 pointsHigh32% · 60 of 190 pointsModerate64% · 122 of 190 pointsLow1% · 1 of 190 points
Safest end we measured23.7near Chinle · Low
Middle of the county47.1Moderate — half of Apache County is above this
Most exposed end we measured80.8near Alpine · Very High
And the federal models agree it is a fire county
Relatively HighFEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 97.9 / 100
$6.0M / yrFEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively Moderate
0.29%USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 0.81%
5.97 ftUSFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 99% of the county carries burnable fuel
FEMA NRI also rates Apache County: all-hazards risk Relatively Low · social vulnerability Very High · community resilience Very Low · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0060.
Sources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.
What does your Apache County address score?
A county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Local context
What the data says about Apache County
Across the county’s scored places, risk varies a lot: the lowest scored point is 23.7 in Chinle, and the highest is 80.8 in Alpine.
Most scored points fall in the Moderate tier (122 points), followed by High (60 points) and Very High (7 points).
Fire record
Where the fires actually were
The largest fire in this county record is the Wallow fire in 2011, at 538,052 acres.
The most recent large fire is Greer in 2025, at 20,308 acres.
Since 1984, recorded fire perimeters in Apache County add up to 629,096 acres burned. That equals 8.8% of the county, across 127 fire perimeters.
Wallow Fire, 2011 — Apache County.
Photo: U.S. Department of Agriculture
Lance Cheung/Multimedia PhotoJournalist/USDA Photo by Lance Cheung. · Public domainWood Springs 2 Fire, 2020 — Apache County.
Photo: Forest Service Photography · Public domain
127mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984
629,096acres inside those perimeters since 1984
8.8%of the county's area, as a share of 28,923.6 km²
Greer 2025most recent large fire on record
Before 20002000s2010s2020s
Fire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size.
Named fires on record
Wallow Fire2011538,052 acres
Greer Fire202520,308 acres
Wood Springs 2 Fire202012,862 acres
Oak Ridge Fire202511,027 acres
Turkey Fire20109,003 acres
San Juan Fire20147,003 acres
Three Forks Fire20047,742 acres
McDonald Tank Fire20213,549 acres
Perimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Wallow 2011.
Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.
Communities
Where in the county you are matters most
Community medians show clear local differences. Eagar is 60.8 while Chinle is 44.3, so two towns in the same county can sit in different risk tiers.
Springerville (60.5) and Alpine (58.7) are among the higher community medians shown here, while Ganado (35.8) and Saint Michaels (35.2) are among the lower ones.
In the central range, places such as Flat Rock (46.9), Rock Point (47.8), and Tsaile (47.3) cluster near the county’s middle band rather than the extremes.
Eagartown · 4,395 people
60.8 High
Springervillevillage · 1,717 people
60.5 High
Alpinevillage · 146 people
58.7 High
Kinlicheevillage
54.7 High
Nazlinivillage · 505 people
54 High
Houckvillage
53.7 High
Sand Springsvillage
52 High
Hunters Pointvillage
51.2 High
Dennehotsovillage · 746 people
51 High
Red Mesa / Tsé Łichííʼ Dah Azkánívillage
48.9 Moderate
30 more communities in Apache County
Sandersvillage
48.9 Moderate
Rock Pointvillage
47.8 Moderate
Tsailevillage
47.3 Moderate
Flat Rockvillage
46.9 Moderate
Steamboatvillage
46.8 Moderate
Many Farmsvillage
46.6 Moderate
Sawmillvillage
45.4 Moderate
Nahata Dziilvillage
44.6 Moderate
Chinletown · 4,518 people
44.3 Moderate
Window Rocktown · 3,059 people
43.2 Moderate
Lukachukaivillage
42.9 Moderate
Wheatfieldsvillage
42.8 Moderate
Luptonvillage
42.5 Moderate
Chambersvillage
42.2 Moderate
Klagetohvillage
41.7 Moderate
Mexican Watervillage
41.2 Moderate
Rough Rockvillage
41 Moderate
Wide Ruinsvillage
40.9 Moderate
Cornfieldsvillage
40.4 Moderate
Saint Johnstown · 3,480 people
40.3 Moderate
Covevillage
40.2 Moderate
Oak Springsvillage
40.1 Moderate
Round Rockvillage
40.1 Moderate
Salinavillage
40 Moderate
Cottonwoodvillage
39.2 Moderate
Fort Defiancetown · 3,624 people
38.1 Moderate
Burnsidevillage · 494 people
37.9 Moderate
Ganadotown · 1,210 people
35.8 Moderate
Saint Michaelsvillage
35.2 Moderate
Red Rockvillage
33.3 Moderate
The score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale
indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the
community's own record where the source carries one.
Terrain & fuels
Terrain, vegetation and fuels
Fire weather was not measured at all for Apache County on this page.
What was measured countywide includes terrain, where scores run from 30.0 near Eagar to 65.0 at Sand Springs, with a middle value of 55.0.
Vegetation and fuels are generally elevated in this county’s scores, with a middle value of 74.0, peaking at 80.0 near Springerville and dropping to 20.0 in Chinle.
Hazard-zone scores span from 10.0 to 96.1 in unincorporated Apache County, and fire-history scores run from 5.0 to 95.0, with the high point near Alpine. These factors contribute to why nearby places can score differently.
55median terrain score (max 65 near Sand Springs)
74median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near Springerville)
Fire weather
Fire weather across Apache County
Fire weather was not measured at the sampled points in Apache County. The other four
indicators on this page were, and the bars below show what they found.
What drives it
Which part of the risk moves, and which doesn't
Risk is not one single county number in day-to-day terms; it shifts by location. In the communities listed here, Eagar (60.8) and Springerville (60.5) sit near the higher end.
Fort Defiance (38.1), Saint Johns (40.3), and Window Rock (43.2) are lower than those eastern mountain communities.
Several villages also score on the higher side, including Alpine (58.7), Kinlichee (54.7), and Nazlini (54.0).
Each bar is what one part of the score covers across Apache County, on the same 0–100 scale.
A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same
almost everywhere.
Terrain
30–65highest near Sand Springs
Vegetation & fuels
20–80highest near Springerville
Hazard zone
10–96.1highest near unincorporated Apache County
Fire history
5–95highest near Alpine
Overall score
23.7–80.8highest near Alpine
The tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50,
Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.
Show every number behind these bars
Layer
Min
Median
Max
Lowest place
Highest place
Points
Terrain
30
55
65
near Eagar
Sand Springs
186
Vegetation & fuels
20
74
80
Chinle
near Springerville
190
Hazard zone
10
32.9
96.1
unincorporated Apache County
unincorporated Apache County
190
Fire history
5
5
95
unincorporated Apache County
near Alpine
190
Composite
23.7
47.1
80.8
Chinle
Alpine
190
Independently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at 0.29% (90th percentile cell: 0.81%), with a mean conditional flame length of 5.97 ft. 99% of the 34,292 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.
Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).
CAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at 190 of the 190 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas, and most of this county is state or federal land. At 157 of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead; at the remaining 33 the hazard weight is renormalised away rather than scored as low.
190 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 90%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.
For a property
What a county range means for one address
For countywide context, the U.S. Forest Service wildfire-risk model lists mean annual burn probability as 0.29, with a 90th-percentile cell value of 0.81. This is a modeled burn-probability product, not fire weather.
That same model indicates 99.4% of Apache County can burn, and lists mean conditional flame length at 5.97 feet.
FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Apache County’s wildfire risk as Relatively High, and its wildfire expected annual loss as Relatively Moderate.
FEMA also rates the county’s all-hazards risk as Relatively Low, with social vulnerability rated Very High and community resilience rated Very Low.
Across 190 sampled points in Apache County, the score runs from
23.7 to 80.8 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers.
A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.
Find out where your Apache County parcel sits
Slope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.
Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan
Coverage
ZIP codes we cover in Apache County
Every one of the 51 ZIP areas that touch Apache County — we run address-level
reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside
each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and not a score for any
property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.
Frequently asked questions about Apache County wildfire risk
What is the largest fire listed for Apache County?
Wallow (2011) is the largest listed fire, at 538,052 acres.
What is the most recent large fire listed?
Greer (2025) is the most recent large fire listed, at 20,308 acres.
Was fire weather measured across Apache County here?
No. Fire weather was not measured at all on this page for Apache County.
How much of Apache County has burned since 1984?
8.8% of the county has burned since 1984, totaling 629,096 acres across 127 recorded fire perimeters.
Are FEMA ratings local to each town?
No. FEMA’s National Risk Index ratings shown here apply to Apache County as a whole, not to individual towns or neighborhoods.
This page is generated from a Apache County data pack assembled on 2026-09-05 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the
county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a
substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's
underwriting judgement.
Data versions: fema_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.
What does your parcel look like, layer by layer?
A county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.
