--- title: "Wildfire Risk in Stanislaus County, CA 2026 | Satelife" description: "Wildfire risk in Stanislaus County spans a wide range across the places we scored. The lowest overall score is 13.4 in Turlock, while the highest is 77.9 near Patterson, with a county midpoint of 28.9." image: "https://satelife.ai/images/wildfire-risk/stanislaus-county/generated/stanislaus-county-locator.webp" canonical: "https://satelife.ai/wildfire-risk/california/stanislaus-county/" --- [Home](/)›[Wildfire Risk](/wildfire-risk/)›[California](/wildfire-risk/california/)›Stanislaus County Stanislaus County, California # Wildfire risk in Stanislaus County: _where it is highest_, and why Wildfire risk in Stanislaus County spans a wide range across the places we scored. The lowest overall score is 13.4 in Turlock, while the highest is 77.9 near Patterson, with a county midpoint of 28.9. [Score my Stanislaus County address →](#score-my-address) [How risky is this county? ↓](#risk-at-a-glance) Before 20002000s2010s2020sCommunity Stanislaus County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail. At a glance ## Half of Stanislaus County scores _Moderate_ or worse We scored 162 points across Stanislaus County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 1% of them come out Very High, while 48% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you. 35% 17% 48% **Very High** 1% · 2 of 162 points **High** 35% · 56 of 162 points **Moderate** 17% · 27 of 162 points **Low** 48% · 77 of 162 points Safest end we measured 13.4 near Turlock · Low Middle of the county 28.9 Moderate — half of Stanislaus County is above this Most exposed end we measured 77.9 near Patterson · Very High ### And the federal models agree it is a fire county Relatively Moderate FEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 95 / 100 $3.7M / yr FEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively Moderate 0.92% USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 2.27% 3.22 ft USFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 86% of the county carries burnable fuel FEMA NRI also rates Stanislaus County: all-hazards risk Relatively High · social vulnerability Relatively Low · community resilience Relatively Low · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0060. Sources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it. What does your Stanislaus County address score? A county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it. Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan Local context ## What the data says about _Stanislaus County_ Looking at the four address-report tiers, Low is the most common tier, with 77 scored points. Very High appears at 2 points, while High and Moderate make up much of the rest. For county-wide context, FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Stanislaus County’s wildfire risk as Relatively Moderate, and its all-hazards risk as Relatively High. Fire record ## Where the fires _actually were_ Since 1984, 116,839 acres have burned in Stanislaus County fire perimeters, and 12.1% of the county has burned in that period. The county records 100 fire perimeters since 1984. The largest fire listed for the county is Canyon (2006), at 34,218 acres. The most recent large fire is 2-2 (2025), at 3,463 acres. The Lick fire also stands out at 47,748 acres and was partly in Stanislaus County. 100 mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984 116,839 acres inside those perimeters since 1984 12.1% of the county's area, as a share of 3,906.1 km² 2-2 2025 most recent large fire on record Before 20002000s2010s2020s Fire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size. Named fires on record - **Canyon Fire**200634,218 acres - **Waverly Fire**201811,760 acres - **Annie Fire**200318,210 acres - **Lick Fire**200747,748 acres in totalcrossed into the county - **Bird\_1 Fire**20037,876 acres - **2-2 Fire**20253,463 acres - **Del\_Puerto\_2 Fire**20035,909 acres - **Bollinger Ridge Fire**196132,866 acres in totalcrossed into the county Perimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Canyon 2006. Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records. Communities ## Where in the county you are _matters most_ In the larger cities, Modesto scores lower at 14.5 than Turlock at 18.8. Ceres is close to Turlock at 19.2. Among towns, Oakdale is notably higher at 28.9, while Patterson is 22.8 and Newman is 21.1. In smaller places, Empire is lower at 16.1, while Waterford is 20.6 and Riverdale Park is 19.6. Oakdale town · 19,296 people 28.9 _Moderate_ Patterson town · 20,413 people 22.8 _Low_ Newman town · 10,224 people 21.1 _Low_ Waterford village · 8,812 people 20.6 _Low_ Riverdale Park village · 1,128 people 19.6 _Low_ Hughson village · 6,640 people 19.3 _Low_ Ceres town · 45,417 people 19.2 _Low_ Turlock city · 72,740 people 18.8 _Low_ Denair village · 4,404 people 18.6 _Low_ Riverbank town · 22,678 people 17.5 _Low_ 2 more communities in Stanislaus County Empire village · 4,189 people 16.1 _Low_ Modesto city · 211,266 people 14.5 _Low_ The score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the community's own record where the source carries one. Terrain & fuels ## Terrain, vegetation and _fuels_ Fire weather was not measured for Stanislaus County. Terrain scores are mostly at the low end, with a county midpoint of 20.0 and a high of 65.0 near Patterson. Vegetation and fuels vary more than terrain. The midpoint is 46.0, and the high reaches 80.0 near Patterson. 20 median terrain score (max 65 near Patterson) 46 median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near Patterson) Fire weather ## Fire weather across _Stanislaus County_ Fire weather was not measured at the sampled points in Stanislaus County. The other four indicators on this page were, and the bars below show what they found. What drives it ## Which part of the risk _moves_, and which doesn't Risk is not even across the county. The highest overall score, 77.9, is near Patterson, while the lowest, 13.4, is in Turlock. By tier counts, Low shows up most often with 77 points, and High is also common at 56 points. Among named communities, Oakdale has a higher central score at 28.9, while Modesto is lower at 14.5. Patterson sits between them at 22.8. Each bar is what one part of the score covers across Stanislaus County, on the same 0–100 scale. A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same almost everywhere. Terrain 20–65 highest near Patterson Vegetation & fuels 20–80 highest near Patterson Hazard zone 10–90 highest near Newman Fire history 5–95 highest near Patterson Overall score 13.4–77.9 highest near Patterson The tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50, Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them. Show every number behind these bars Layer Min Median Max Lowest place Highest place Points Terrain 20 20 65 Newman near Patterson 162 Vegetation & fuels 20 46 80 Turlock near Patterson 162 Hazard zone 10 10 90 Newman near Newman 162 Fire history 5 5 95 near Newman near Patterson 162 Composite 13.4 28.9 77.9 Turlock near Patterson 162 Independently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at **0.92%** (90th percentile cell: **2.27%**), with a mean conditional flame length of **3.22 ft**. **86%** of the 15,470 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all. Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent). CAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at **1** of the 162 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas. At **1** of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead. 162 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 90%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states. For a property ## What a county range means for _one address_ Two location-based factors can differ a lot even within the same county. The hazard-zone score runs from 10.0 up to 90.0, with both ends appearing around Newman. Past-fire pattern scores also spread widely, from 5.0 near Newman to 95.0 near Patterson. For a separate county-wide model, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities product shows a mean annual burn probability of 0.92%, and a 90th-percentile cell value of 2.27%. It also indicates that 86.3% of the county can burn under that model. Across 162 sampled points in Stanislaus County, the score runs from 13.4 to 77.9 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers. A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at. Find out where your Stanislaus County parcel sits Slope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county. Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan Coverage ## ZIP codes we cover in Stanislaus County Every one of the 41 ZIP areas that touch Stanislaus County — we run address-level reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and **not** a score for any property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers. **High** 2 ZIPs - [95363 Patterson62](/wildfire-risk/zip/95363/) - [95230 Oakdale51](/wildfire-risk/zip/95230/) **Moderate** 5 ZIPs - [95361 Oakdale41](/wildfire-risk/zip/95361/) - [95329 Waterford39](/wildfire-risk/zip/95329/) - [95386 Waterford34](/wildfire-risk/zip/95386/) - [95387 Patterson29](/wildfire-risk/zip/95387/) - [95322 Newman27](/wildfire-risk/zip/95322/) **Low** 17 ZIPs - [95307 Ceres23](/wildfire-risk/zip/95307/) - [95385 Riverdale Park22](/wildfire-risk/zip/95385/) - [95323 Waterford20](/wildfire-risk/zip/95323/) - [95358 Riverdale Park20](/wildfire-risk/zip/95358/) - [95357 Empire20](/wildfire-risk/zip/95357/) - [95313 Patterson19](/wildfire-risk/zip/95313/) - [95316 Denair19](/wildfire-risk/zip/95316/) - [95360 Newman19](/wildfire-risk/zip/95360/) - [95380 Turlock19](/wildfire-risk/zip/95380/) - [95367 Riverbank19](/wildfire-risk/zip/95367/) - [95320 Riverbank18](/wildfire-risk/zip/95320/) - [95356 Riverbank18](/wildfire-risk/zip/95356/) - [95326 Hughson17](/wildfire-risk/zip/95326/) - [95355 Empire15](/wildfire-risk/zip/95355/) - [95319 Empire13](/wildfire-risk/zip/95319/) - [95354 Modesto13](/wildfire-risk/zip/95354/) - [95382 Turlock13](/wildfire-risk/zip/95382/) **No sampled point inside** 17 ZIPs [94550](/wildfire-risk/zip/94550/) · [95023](/wildfire-risk/zip/95023/) · [95135](/wildfire-risk/zip/95135/) · [95228 Oakdale](/wildfire-risk/zip/95228/) · [95236 Oakdale](/wildfire-risk/zip/95236/) · [95303 Denair](/wildfire-risk/zip/95303/) · [95304 Riverdale Park](/wildfire-risk/zip/95304/) · [95324 Turlock](/wildfire-risk/zip/95324/) · [95327 Oakdale](/wildfire-risk/zip/95327/) · [95328 Hughson](/wildfire-risk/zip/95328/) · [95337 Riverdale Park](/wildfire-risk/zip/95337/) · [95350 Modesto](/wildfire-risk/zip/95350/) · [95351 Modesto](/wildfire-risk/zip/95351/) · [95366 Riverbank](/wildfire-risk/zip/95366/) · [95368 Modesto](/wildfire-risk/zip/95368/) · [95369 Waterford](/wildfire-risk/zip/95369/) · [95374 Newman](/wildfire-risk/zip/95374/) Grouped from 24 of 41 ZIP areas — the rest had no sample point fall inside them. The community shown is the nearest mapped place to the ZIP's centre. ZIP areas are Census 2020 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas intersecting the county boundary. Where to go next ## Stanislaus County wildfire risk _in context_ [California wildfire risk The statewide picture and every county page we publish](/wildfire-risk/california/) [Wildfire risk by state Every state and county we cover](/wildfire-risk/) [How Satelife calculates wildfire risk Data sources, layers, score composition, honest limits](/wildfire-risk/methodology/) [Create a wildfire evacuation plan Zones, egress routes, refuge areas](/wildfire-evacuation-plan/) [Run a report for a Stanislaus County address PDF + score + mitigation plan](/#cta) FAQ ## Frequently asked questions about _Stanislaus County wildfire risk_ Is wildfire risk the same everywhere in Stanislaus County? No. Scores range from 13.4 in Turlock to 77.9 near Patterson, so location within the county is associated with meaningful differences in wildfire risk. What does FEMA say about Stanislaus County? FEMA’s National Risk Index rates the county’s wildfire risk as Relatively Moderate. It rates the county’s all-hazards risk as Relatively High. How much of the county has burned? 12.1% of Stanislaus County has burned since 1984, totaling 116,839 acres within mapped fire perimeters. What are the key fires to know here? The largest fire listed for the county is Canyon (2006), at 34,218 acres. The most recent large fire is 2-2 (2025), at 3,463 acres. Was fire weather included in these county scores? No. Fire weather was not measured for Stanislaus County in this scoring set. This page is generated from a Stanislaus County data pack assembled on 2026-08-18 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's underwriting judgement. Data versions: fema\_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc\_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020. ## What does _your parcel_ look like, layer by layer? A county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan. [Start with your address →](/#cta) [![PRR](/images/prr.png)](/ficha-de-website-voucher-satelife.pdf) © 2024–2026 Satelife, Lda. All rights reserved. Satelife reports are for informational purposes only and do not constitute insurance, financial, or legal advice.