{
  "title": "Wildfire Risk in Santa Cruz County, CA 2026 | Satelife",
  "description": "Wildfire risk in Santa Cruz County spans a wide range, with higher scores concentrated in some inland and mountain communities and lower scores in several coastal neighborhoods. Across the places we scored, the county’s midpoint is 49.8, and the largest count of scored points falls in the High tier",
  "image": "https://satelife.ai/images/wildfire-risk/santa-cruz-county/generated/santa-cruz-county-locator.webp",
  "canonical": "https://satelife.ai/wildfire-risk/california/santa-cruz-county/",
  "content": "[Home](/)›[Wildfire Risk](/wildfire-risk/)›[California](/wildfire-risk/california/)›Santa Cruz County\n\nSanta Cruz County, California\n\n# Wildfire risk in Santa Cruz County: _where it is highest_, and why\n\nWildfire risk in Santa Cruz County spans a wide range, with higher scores concentrated in some inland and mountain communities and lower scores in several coastal neighborhoods. Across the places we scored, the county’s midpoint is 49.8, and the largest count of scored points falls in the High tier (83 points).\n\n[Score my Santa Cruz County address →](#score-my-address) [How risky is this county? ↓](#risk-at-a-glance)\n\nBefore 20002000s2010s2020sCommunity\n\nSanta Cruz County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.\n\nAt a glance\n\n## Half of Santa Cruz County scores _Moderate_ or worse\n\nWe scored 180 points across Santa Cruz County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 3% of them come out Very High, while 28% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.\n\n46%\n\n22%\n\n28%\n\n**Very High** 3% · 6 of 180 points **High** 46% · 83 of 180 points **Moderate** 22% · 40 of 180 points **Low** 28% · 51 of 180 points\n\nSafest end we measured 8.7 near Twin Lakes · Low\n\nMiddle of the county 49.8 Moderate — half of Santa Cruz County is above this\n\nMost exposed end we measured 78.4 near Brookdale · Very High\n\n### And the federal models agree it is a fire county\n\nRelatively Moderate FEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 97.3 / 100\n\n$9.0M / yr FEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively High\n\n0.20% USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 0.41%\n\n1.76 ft USFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 59% of the county carries burnable fuel\n\nFEMA NRI also rates Santa Cruz County: all-hazards risk Relatively High · social vulnerability Relatively Low · community resilience Relatively High · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0045.\n\nSources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.\n\nWhat does your Santa Cruz County address score?\n\nA county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.\n\nFree to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan\n\nLocal context\n\n## What the data says about _Santa Cruz County_\n\nFEMA’s National Risk Index rates Santa Cruz County’s wildfire risk as Relatively Moderate, while its wildfire expected annual loss rating is Relatively High. In the separate USFS burn-probability model, the countywide mean annual burn probability is 0.20%, and 59.2% of the county is in places that can burn.\n\nFire record\n\n## Where the fires _actually were_\n\nThe largest fire listed for Santa Cruz County is the Lockheed fire in 2009 at 7,783 acres. It is also the most recent large fire.\n\nSince 1984, recorded fire perimeters in and around the county account for 18,510 burned acres, which is 4.9% of the county, across 39 perimeters.\n\nOther notable fires in this record include the Lexington fire in 1985 at 13,128 acres (partly in the county) and the Summit fire in 2008 at 4,175 acres.\n\n![Lockheed Fire (2009) in Santa Cruz County, California - Red outlines mark the locations where the satellite detected active fire. A narrow but dense plume of smoke slices across the mout](/images/wildfire-risk/santa-cruz-county/photos/lockheed-fire-santa-cruz-mountains.webp)\n\n**Lockheed Fire, 2009** — Santa Cruz County. Photo: Jeff Schmaltz · [Public domain](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lockheed_Fire,_Santa_Cruz_Mountains.jpg)\n\n![Summit Fire (2008) in Santa Cruz County, California - SANTA CRUZ, Calif., (May 25, 2008) William Sorensen (left) and Petty Officer Scott P. McIntire of Coast Guard Training Center Peta](/images/wildfire-risk/santa-cruz-county/photos/coast-guard-training-center-petaluma-fights-summit-fire-dvid.webp)\n\n**Summit Fire, 2008** — Santa Cruz County. Photo: Chief Petty Officer Alan Haraf · [Public domain](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Coast_Guard_Training_Center_Petaluma_Fights_Summit_Fire_DVIDS1087342.jpg)\n\n39 mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984\n\n18,510 acres inside those perimeters since 1984\n\n4.9% of the county's area, as a share of 1,522.3 km²\n\nLockheed 2009 most recent large fire on record\n\nBefore 20002000s2010s2020s \n\nFire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size.\n\nNamed fires on record\n\n-   **Lockheed Fire**20097,783 acres\n-   **Summit Fire**20084,175 acres\n-   **Lincoln Hill Fire**19623,236 acres\n-   **Lexington Fire**198513,128 acres in totalcrossed into the county\n-   **Newell Creek #2 Fire**19591,327 acres\n-   **Rocha Vmp Escape #2 Fire**19841,240 acres\n-   **Loma Fire**2009669 acres\n-   **Trabing Fire**2008594 acres\n\nPerimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · largest on record: Lockheed 2009. Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.\n\nCommunities\n\n## Where in the county you are _matters most_\n\nAmong named communities, the higher overall wildfire risk scores are in mountain and inland areas such as Brookdale (74.7) and Boulder Creek (67.0). Lower scores appear in places like Watsonville (13.4) and Santa Cruz (16.7).\n\nOther communities sit in the middle-to-higher range, including Felton at 57.8 and Aptos Hills-Larkin Valley at 56.6, while some coastal communities like Seacliff are lower at 22.6.\n\nBrookdale village\n\n74.7 _High_\n\nBoulder Creek town · 4,923 people\n\n67 _High_\n\nBonny Doon village\n\n66 _High_\n\nDay Valley village\n\n60.6 _High_\n\nParadise Park village\n\n58.8 _High_\n\nFelton village\n\n57.8 _High_\n\nAptos Hills-Larkin Valley village\n\n56.6 _High_\n\nSummit West village\n\n56.6 _High_\n\nCorralitos village\n\n53.1 _High_\n\nLompico village\n\n51.9 _High_\n\n20 more communities in Santa Cruz County\n\nHappy Valley village\n\n50.1 _High_\n\nSummit village\n\n49.1 _Moderate_\n\nScotts Valley town · 11,150 people\n\n48.6 _Moderate_\n\nAmesti village\n\n44.2 _Moderate_\n\nBen Lomond village\n\n42.6 _Moderate_\n\nDavenport village\n\n37.1 _Moderate_\n\nInterlaken village\n\n36.9 _Moderate_\n\nSoquel village\n\n22.8 _Low_\n\nSeacliff village\n\n22.6 _Low_\n\nLa Selva Beach village\n\n21.9 _Low_\n\nPajaro Dunes village\n\n21.9 _Low_\n\nRio Del Mar village\n\n18.9 _Low_\n\nSeascape village\n\n17.6 _Low_\n\nSanta Cruz city · 64,220 people\n\n16.7 _Low_\n\nWatsonville city\n\n13.4 _Low_\n\nWatsonville town · 51,199 people\n\n13.4 _Low_\n\nCapitola town · 9,507 people\n\n13.4 _Low_\n\nLive Oak town · 8,392 people\n\n13.4 _Low_\n\nOpal Cliffs village\n\n8.7 _Low_\n\nTwin Lakes village\n\n8.7 _Low_\n\nThe score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the community's own record where the source carries one.\n\nTerrain & fuels\n\n## Terrain, vegetation and _fuels_\n\nTerrain scores run from 5.0 at Pajaro Dunes up to 65.0 at Corralitos, with a midpoint of 40.0. That spread is associated with meaningful place-to-place differences in wildfire exposure.\n\nVegetation and fuels are generally elevated in many inland spots, from 5.0 near Twin Lakes up to 80.0 in Bonny Doon. Hazard-zone scores are also high in many places, with a county midpoint of 70.0 and a high of 90.0 near Bonny Doon.\n\nFire-history scores range from 5.0 near Twin Lakes to 95.0 in Davenport, showing that prior fire footprint is much heavier in some locations than others.\n\n40 median terrain score (max 65 near Corralitos)\n\n59.1 median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near Bonny Doon)\n\nFire weather\n\n## Fire weather across _Santa Cruz County_\n\nFire weather could only be measured at a handful of points in this county, not across the county. It was measured at 8 of 180 scored points, and the reported score there is 58.1 near Twin Lakes.\n\nCountywide, the available model output here is burn probability, not fire weather: the mean annual burn probability is 0.20%, and the 90th-percentile cell value is 0.41%.\n\nFire weather was measured at 8 of the 180 sampled points (near Twin Lakes, 58.1) — too few to publish as a county range, so no high/low is shown here.\n\nWhat drives it\n\n## Which part of the risk _moves_, and which doesn't\n\nWildfire risk is not uniform across the county. The lowest scored location is Twin Lakes at 8.7, while the highest is Brookdale at 78.4, with a county midpoint of 49.8.\n\nBy tier counts, High is the most common tier with 83 scored points, compared with 51 in Low. Moderate and Very High are also present in the county.\n\nEach bar is what one part of the score covers across Santa Cruz County, on the same 0–100 scale. A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same almost everywhere.\n\nTerrain\n\n5–65 highest near Corralitos\n\nVegetation & fuels\n\n5–80 highest near Bonny Doon\n\nHazard zone\n\n10–90 highest near Bonny Doon\n\nFire history\n\n5–95 highest near Davenport\n\nFire weather\n\n58.1 at one point highest near Twin Lakes\n\nOverall score\n\n8.7–78.4 highest near Brookdale\n\nThe tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50, Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.\n\nShow every number behind these bars\n\nLayer\n\nMin\n\nMedian\n\nMax\n\nLowest place\n\nHighest place\n\nPoints\n\nTerrain\n\n5\n\n40\n\n65\n\nPajaro Dunes\n\nCorralitos\n\n180\n\nVegetation & fuels\n\n5\n\n59.1\n\n80\n\nnear Twin Lakes\n\nBonny Doon\n\n180\n\nHazard zone\n\n10\n\n70\n\n90\n\nnear Twin Lakes\n\nnear Bonny Doon\n\n180\n\nFire history\n\n5\n\n20\n\n95\n\nnear Twin Lakes\n\nDavenport\n\n180\n\nFire weather\\*\n\n—\n\n—\n\n58.1\n\n—\n\nnear Twin Lakes\n\n8\n\nComposite\n\n8.7\n\n49.8\n\n78.4\n\nTwin Lakes\n\nBrookdale\n\n180\n\n\\*Fire weather returned a reading at only 8 of the 180 sampled points. The one value measured is shown under Max with the place beside it; there is no county range to report, so the other columns are left blank.\n\nIndependently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at **0.20%** (90th percentile cell: **0.41%**), with a mean conditional flame length of **1.76 ft**. **59%** of the 19,085 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.\n\nSource: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).\n\nCAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at **35** of the 180 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas. At **1** of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead; at the remaining 34 the hazard weight is renormalised away rather than scored as low.\n\n180 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 90%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.\n\nFor a property\n\n## What a county range means for _one address_\n\nProperty-by-property building-condition factors were not measured at all.\n\nWhat is available is place-based wildfire risk around a property. For example, nearby location patterns range from low scores such as Twin Lakes at 8.7 to much higher scores such as Brookdale at 78.4, so a specific address’s surroundings can differ sharply even within one county.\n\nYou can also use local context from hazard-zone and fire-history patterns: hazard-zone scores reach 90.0 near Bonny Doon, and fire-history scores reach 95.0 in Davenport.\n\nAcross 180 sampled points in Santa Cruz County, the score runs from 8.7 to 78.4 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers. A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.\n\nFind out where your Santa Cruz County parcel sits\n\nSlope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.\n\nFree to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan\n\nCoverage\n\n## ZIP codes we cover in Santa Cruz County\n\nEvery one of the 25 ZIP areas that touch Santa Cruz County — we run address-level reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and **not** a score for any property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.\n\n**High** 8 ZIPs\n\n-   [95007 Brookdale68](/wildfire-risk/zip/95007/)\n-   [95017 Boulder Creek66](/wildfire-risk/zip/95017/)\n-   [95006 Boulder Creek65](/wildfire-risk/zip/95006/)\n-   [95064 Paradise Park58](/wildfire-risk/zip/95064/)\n-   [95033 Summit57](/wildfire-risk/zip/95033/)\n-   [95060 Felton54](/wildfire-risk/zip/95060/)\n-   [95018 Ben Lomond51](/wildfire-risk/zip/95018/)\n-   [95073 Happy Valley51](/wildfire-risk/zip/95073/)\n\n**Moderate** 5 ZIPs\n\n-   [95076 Interlaken50](/wildfire-risk/zip/95076/)\n-   [95066 Scotts Valley49](/wildfire-risk/zip/95066/)\n-   [95005 Ben Lomond48](/wildfire-risk/zip/95005/)\n-   [95065 Happy Valley44](/wildfire-risk/zip/95065/)\n-   [95003 Day Valley41](/wildfire-risk/zip/95003/)\n\n**Low** 2 ZIPs\n\n-   [95010 Capitola13](/wildfire-risk/zip/95010/)\n-   [95062 Live Oak13](/wildfire-risk/zip/95062/)\n\n**No sampled point inside** 10 ZIPs\n\n[94020 Boulder Creek](/wildfire-risk/zip/94020/) · [94060 Boulder Creek](/wildfire-risk/zip/94060/) · [95004 Watsonville](/wildfire-risk/zip/95004/) · [95019 Amesti](/wildfire-risk/zip/95019/) · [95020 Interlaken](/wildfire-risk/zip/95020/) · [95037 Corralitos](/wildfire-risk/zip/95037/) · [95039 Pajaro Dunes](/wildfire-risk/zip/95039/) · [95041 Felton](/wildfire-risk/zip/95041/) · [95045 Watsonville](/wildfire-risk/zip/95045/) · [95070 Summit West](/wildfire-risk/zip/95070/)\n\nGrouped from 15 of 25 ZIP areas — the rest had no sample point fall inside them. The community shown is the nearest mapped place to the ZIP's centre.\n\nZIP areas are Census 2020 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas intersecting the county boundary.\n\nWhere to go next\n\n## Santa Cruz County wildfire risk _in context_\n\n[California wildfire risk The statewide picture and every county page we publish](/wildfire-risk/california/) [Wildfire risk by state Every state and county we cover](/wildfire-risk/) [How Satelife calculates wildfire risk Data sources, layers, score composition, honest limits](/wildfire-risk/methodology/) [Create a wildfire evacuation plan Zones, egress routes, refuge areas](/wildfire-evacuation-plan/) [Run a report for a Santa Cruz County address PDF + score + mitigation plan](/#cta)\n\nFAQ\n\n## Frequently asked questions about _Santa Cruz County wildfire risk_\n\nWhat is the most recent large fire in Santa Cruz County?\n\nThe most recent large fire listed is Lockheed (2009), which is also the largest in this record at 7,783 acres.\n\nHow much of the county has burned since 1984?\n\n18,510 acres have burned since 1984, equal to 4.9% of Santa Cruz County.\n\nDoes every part of the county have a fire-weather score?\n\nNo. Fire weather was only measured at a handful of points (8 of 180), with a reported value of 58.1 near Twin Lakes, so it was not measured across the county.\n\nWhat does FEMA say about wildfire risk here?\n\nFEMA’s National Risk Index rates Santa Cruz County’s wildfire risk as Relatively Moderate and its wildfire expected annual loss as Relatively High.\n\nThis page is generated from a Santa Cruz County data pack assembled on 2026-08-19 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's underwriting judgement. Data versions: fema\\_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc\\_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.\n\n## What does _your parcel_ look like, layer by layer?\n\nA county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.\n\n[Start with your address →](/#cta)\n\n[![PRR](/images/prr.png)](/ficha-de-website-voucher-satelife.pdf)\n\n© 2024–2026 Satelife, Lda. All rights reserved.\n\nSatelife reports are for informational purposes only and do not constitute insurance, financial, or legal advice."
}