{
  "title": "Wildfire Risk in Monterey County, CA 2026 | Satelife",
  "description": "Wildfire risk in Monterey County spans a wide range across the places we scored. Overall scores run from 16.0 in unincorporated Monterey County to 77.2 near Carmel Valley, with a midpoint of 56.8.",
  "image": "https://satelife.ai/images/wildfire-risk/monterey-county/generated/monterey-county-locator.webp",
  "canonical": "https://satelife.ai/wildfire-risk/california/monterey-county/",
  "content": "[Home](/)›[Wildfire Risk](/wildfire-risk/)›[California](/wildfire-risk/california/)›Monterey County\n\nMonterey County, California\n\n# Wildfire risk in Monterey County: _where it is highest_, and why\n\nWildfire risk in Monterey County spans a wide range across the places we scored. Overall scores run from 16.0 in unincorporated Monterey County to 77.2 near Carmel Valley, with a midpoint of 56.8.\n\n[Score my Monterey County address →](#score-my-address) [How risky is this county? ↓](#risk-at-a-glance)\n\nBefore 20002000s2010s2020sCommunity\n\nMonterey County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.\n\nAt a glance\n\n## Half of Monterey County scores _High_ or worse\n\nWe scored 172 points across Monterey County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 4% of them come out Very High, while 20% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.\n\n54%\n\n22%\n\n20%\n\n**Very High** 4% · 7 of 172 points **High** 54% · 93 of 172 points **Moderate** 22% · 37 of 172 points **Low** 20% · 35 of 172 points\n\nSafest end we measured 16 near unincorporated Monterey County · Low\n\nMiddle of the county 56.8 High — half of Monterey County is above this\n\nMost exposed end we measured 77.2 near Carmel Valley · Very High\n\n### And the federal models agree it is a fire county\n\nRelatively High FEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 98.7 / 100\n\n$17.1M / yr FEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively High\n\n1.37% USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 3.42%\n\n4.76 ft USFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 76% of the county carries burnable fuel\n\nFEMA NRI also rates Monterey County: all-hazards risk Relatively High · social vulnerability Relatively Moderate · community resilience Relatively Low · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0088.\n\nSources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.\n\nWhat does your Monterey County address score?\n\nA county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.\n\nFree to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan\n\nLocal context\n\n## What the data says about _Monterey County_\n\nBy tier count, High is the most common result, with 93 scored points in that tier. Very High appears at 7 points, and FEMA’s National Risk Index rates countywide wildfire risk as \"Relatively High.\"\n\nFire record\n\n## Where the fires _actually were_\n\nWildfire has affected a large share of Monterey County over time. Since 1984, 981,256 acres have burned, and 40.7% of the county has burned in that period. The county record shown here includes 249 fire perimeters since 1984.\n\nThe largest fire listed is Basin Complex (2008), at 163,607 acres. The most recent large fire is Range (2026). Other major fires in the county record include Dolan (2020), at 124,527 acres.\n\n![Soberanes Fire (2016) in Monterey County, California - Photo by Sarah Chmielewski, BLM.](/images/wildfire-risk/monterey-county/photos/pete-fonken-on-soberanes-fire-29686796222.webp)\n\n**Soberanes Fire, 2016** — Monterey County. Photo: blmcalifornia · [Public domain](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Pete_Fonken_on_Soberanes_Fire_\\(29686796222\\).jpg)\n\n![Basin Complex Fire (2008) in Monterey County, California - Big Sur, CA, July 2, 2008, FEMA Administrator R. David Paulison and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger attend a CA Fire briefing. The ](/images/wildfire-risk/monterey-county/photos/fema-36997-photograph-by-adam-dubrowa-taken-on-07-02-2008-in.webp)\n\n**Basin Complex Fire, 2008** — Monterey County. Photo: Adam Dubrowa · [Public domain](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:FEMA_-_36997_-_Photograph_by_Adam_Dubrowa_taken_on_07-02-2008_in_California.jpg)\n\n249 mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984\n\n981,256 acres inside those perimeters since 1984\n\n40.7% of the county's area, as a share of 9,758.9 km²\n\nRange 2026 most recent large fire on record\n\nBefore 20002000s2010s2020s \n\nFire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size.\n\nNamed fires on record\n\n-   **Dolan Fire**2020124,527 acres\n-   **Soberanes Fire**2016132,122 acres\n-   **Basin Complex Fire**2008163,607 acres\n-   **Marble-Cone Fire**1977173,334 acres\n-   **Indians Fire**200876,460 acres\n-   **River Fire**202048,869 acres\n-   **Kirk Fire**199985,835 acres\n-   **Gorda-Rat Fire**198556,158 acres\n\nPerimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Basin Complex 2008. Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.\n\nCommunities\n\n## Where in the county you are _matters most_\n\nIn larger population centers, median wildfire risk is lower in some places: Salinas is 22.4, Monterey is 17.9, and King City is 26.9.\n\nHigher medians appear in Carmel Valley at 62.3, East Garrison at 55.5, and Pine Canyon at 54.7. These place differences line up with the county’s mix of Moderate, High, and Very High tier results.\n\nCarmel Valley village\n\n62.3 _High_\n\nSoledad town · 25,738 people\n\n58.2 _High_\n\nEast Garrison town\n\n55.5 _High_\n\nPine Canyon village · 2,703 people\n\n54.7 _High_\n\nBig Sur Village village\n\n51.6 _High_\n\nGreenfield town · 14,264 people\n\n50 _High_\n\nDel Rey Oaks village · 1,558 people\n\n48.5 _Moderate_\n\nCarmel-by-the-Sea village · 3,928 people\n\n44.9 _Moderate_\n\nElkhorn village\n\n42.9 _Moderate_\n\nPrunedale town · 17,560 people\n\n41.6 _Moderate_\n\n12 more communities in Monterey County\n\nGonzales town · 8,306 people\n\n37.9 _Moderate_\n\nLas Lomas village\n\n36.9 _Moderate_\n\nDel Monte Forest village\n\n32.4 _Moderate_\n\nKing City town · 14,077 people\n\n26.9 _Moderate_\n\nMoss Landing village\n\n26.4 _Moderate_\n\nPajaro village · 3,070 people\n\n23.1 _Low_\n\nSalinas city · 157,380 people\n\n22.4 _Low_\n\nCastroville village\n\n22.1 _Low_\n\nSand City village · 301 people\n\n20.9 _Low_\n\nBoronda village\n\n20 _Low_\n\nMonterey city · 28,803 people\n\n17.9 _Low_\n\nPacific Grove town · 15,090 people\n\n16.1 _Low_\n\nThe score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the community's own record where the source carries one.\n\nTerrain & fuels\n\n## Terrain, vegetation and _fuels_\n\nTerrain-related wildfire risk ranges from 20.0 in unincorporated Monterey County to 65.0 near Pine Canyon. The midpoint is 40.0.\n\nVegetation and fuels vary more: the low end is 5.0 in unincorporated Monterey County and the high end is 80.0 near Pine Canyon. The midpoint is 65.0.\n\n40 median terrain score (max 65 near Pine Canyon)\n\n65 median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near Pine Canyon)\n\n![LANDFIRE existing vegetation type map of Monterey County, California, with the county boundary outlined](/images/wildfire-risk/monterey-county/generated/monterey-county-fuels.webp)\n\nLANDFIRE existing vegetation type across Monterey County — the same fuel data that feeds the vegetation layer of a Satelife property report.\n\nFire weather\n\n## Fire weather across _Monterey County_\n\nFire-weather risk is relatively tight across the county, from 50.5 near Moss Landing to 59.6 near Big Sur Village. The midpoint is 54.1.\n\nFor additional context, the county’s modeled mean annual burn probability is 1.37%, and the 90th-percentile cell is 3.42%. This burn-probability measure is not a fire-weather reading.\n\n50.5 lowest fire-weather score — near Moss Landing\n\n59.6 highest fire-weather score — near Big Sur Village\n\nWhat drives it\n\n## Which part of the risk _moves_, and which doesn't\n\nRisk is not the same from one community to another. Carmel Valley has an overall median of 62.3 and Soledad is 58.2, while Monterey is 17.9.\n\nOther communities sit in between, but still vary. Prunedale is 41.6 and Carmel-by-the-Sea is 44.9, while nearby Pacific Grove is lower at 16.1.\n\nEach bar is what one part of the score covers across Monterey County, on the same 0–100 scale. A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same almost everywhere.\n\nTerrain\n\n20–65 highest near Pine Canyon\n\nVegetation & fuels\n\n5–80 highest near Pine Canyon\n\nHazard zone\n\n10–91.8 highest near Pine Canyon\n\nFire history\n\n5–95 highest near Big Sur Village\n\nFire weather\n\n50.5–59.6 highest near Big Sur Village\n\nOverall score\n\n16–77.2 highest near Carmel Valley\n\nThe tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50, Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.\n\nShow every number behind these bars\n\nLayer\n\nMin\n\nMedian\n\nMax\n\nLowest place\n\nHighest place\n\nPoints\n\nTerrain\n\n20\n\n40\n\n65\n\nunincorporated Monterey County\n\nnear Pine Canyon\n\n172\n\nVegetation & fuels\n\n5\n\n65\n\n80\n\nunincorporated Monterey County\n\nnear Pine Canyon\n\n172\n\nHazard zone\n\n10\n\n68.2\n\n91.8\n\nunincorporated Monterey County\n\nnear Pine Canyon\n\n172\n\nFire history\n\n5\n\n20\n\n95\n\nunincorporated Monterey County\n\nnear Big Sur Village\n\n172\n\nFire weather\n\n50.5\n\n54.1\n\n59.6\n\nnear Moss Landing\n\nnear Big Sur Village\n\n172\n\nComposite\n\n16\n\n56.8\n\n77.2\n\nunincorporated Monterey County\n\nnear Carmel Valley\n\n172\n\nIndependently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at **1.37%** (90th percentile cell: **3.42%**), with a mean conditional flame length of **4.76 ft**. **76%** of the 18,842 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.\n\nSource: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).\n\nCAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at **56** of the 172 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas. At **27** of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead; at the remaining 29 the hazard weight is renormalised away rather than scored as low.\n\n172 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 100%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.\n\nFor a property\n\n## What a county range means for _one address_\n\nBuilding-specific features were not measured for this county page, so property context here comes from nearby wildfire-risk conditions.\n\nHazard-zone risk ranges from 10.0 in unincorporated Monterey County to 91.8 near Pine Canyon, with a midpoint of 68.2.\n\nFire-history risk ranges from 5.0 in unincorporated Monterey County to 95.0 near Big Sur Village, with a midpoint of 20.0. Countywide, 75.6% of Monterey County is in areas that can burn.\n\nAcross 172 sampled points in Monterey County, the score runs from 16 to 77.2 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers. A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.\n\nFind out where your Monterey County parcel sits\n\nSlope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.\n\nFree to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan\n\nCoverage\n\n## ZIP codes we cover in Monterey County\n\nEvery one of the 39 ZIP areas that touch Monterey County — we run address-level reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and **not** a score for any property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.\n\n**High** 13 ZIPs\n\n-   [93928 Pine Canyon73](/wildfire-risk/zip/93928/)\n-   [93932 Pine Canyon71](/wildfire-risk/zip/93932/)\n-   [93954 King City70](/wildfire-risk/zip/93954/)\n-   [93925 Gonzales69](/wildfire-risk/zip/93925/)\n-   [93924 Carmel Valley68](/wildfire-risk/zip/93924/)\n-   [93426 67](/wildfire-risk/zip/93426/)\n-   [93450 King City66](/wildfire-risk/zip/93450/)\n-   [93927 Greenfield65](/wildfire-risk/zip/93927/)\n-   [93210 65](/wildfire-risk/zip/93210/)\n-   [93923 Carmel Valley63](/wildfire-risk/zip/93923/)\n-   [93920 Big Sur Village63](/wildfire-risk/zip/93920/)\n-   [93451 62](/wildfire-risk/zip/93451/)\n-   [93960 Soledad59](/wildfire-risk/zip/93960/)\n\n**Moderate** 11 ZIPs\n\n-   [93930 King City49](/wildfire-risk/zip/93930/)\n-   [93953 Del Monte Forest49](/wildfire-risk/zip/93953/)\n-   [93908 Salinas43](/wildfire-risk/zip/93908/)\n-   [93906 Boronda41](/wildfire-risk/zip/93906/)\n-   [93940 Carmel Valley41](/wildfire-risk/zip/93940/)\n-   [93933 East Garrison37](/wildfire-risk/zip/93933/)\n-   [93921 Carmel-by-the-Sea36](/wildfire-risk/zip/93921/)\n-   [95076 Pajaro35](/wildfire-risk/zip/95076/)\n-   [95039 Moss Landing33](/wildfire-risk/zip/95039/)\n-   [93907 Prunedale31](/wildfire-risk/zip/93907/)\n-   [95012 Castroville31](/wildfire-risk/zip/95012/)\n\n**Low** 5 ZIPs\n\n-   [93926 Gonzales24](/wildfire-risk/zip/93926/)\n-   [93905 Salinas22](/wildfire-risk/zip/93905/)\n-   [93955 Sand City21](/wildfire-risk/zip/93955/)\n-   [93950 Pacific Grove18](/wildfire-risk/zip/93950/)\n-   [93901 Salinas17](/wildfire-risk/zip/93901/)\n\n**No sampled point inside** 10 ZIPs\n\n[93446](/wildfire-risk/zip/93446/) · [93452](/wildfire-risk/zip/93452/) · [93461](/wildfire-risk/zip/93461/) · [93943 Monterey](/wildfire-risk/zip/93943/) · [93944 Monterey](/wildfire-risk/zip/93944/) · [93962 Salinas](/wildfire-risk/zip/93962/) · [95004 Las Lomas](/wildfire-risk/zip/95004/) · [95023 Prunedale](/wildfire-risk/zip/95023/) · [95043 Greenfield](/wildfire-risk/zip/95043/) · [95045 Prunedale](/wildfire-risk/zip/95045/)\n\nGrouped from 29 of 39 ZIP areas — the rest had no sample point fall inside them. The community shown is the nearest mapped place to the ZIP's centre.\n\nZIP areas are Census 2020 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas intersecting the county boundary.\n\nWhere to go next\n\n## Monterey County wildfire risk _in context_\n\n[California wildfire risk The statewide picture and every county page we publish](/wildfire-risk/california/) [Wildfire risk by state Every state and county we cover](/wildfire-risk/) [How Satelife calculates wildfire risk Data sources, layers, score composition, honest limits](/wildfire-risk/methodology/) [Create a wildfire evacuation plan Zones, egress routes, refuge areas](/wildfire-evacuation-plan/) [Run a report for a Monterey County address PDF + score + mitigation plan](/#cta)\n\nFAQ\n\n## Frequently asked questions about _Monterey County wildfire risk_\n\nDoes Monterey County mostly fall into High wildfire risk tiers?\n\nYes. High is the most common tier in the county results, with 93 scored points. Very High appears at 7 points.\n\nWhat were the biggest and most recent large fires listed for Monterey County?\n\nThe largest fire listed is Basin Complex (2008), at 163,607 acres. The most recent large fire is Range (2026).\n\nHow does FEMA rate Monterey County for wildfire?\n\nFEMA’s National Risk Index rates Monterey County’s wildfire risk as \"Relatively High\" and its wildfire expected annual loss as \"Relatively High.\"\n\nAre fire weather and burn probability the same thing on this page?\n\nNo. Fire weather is shown separately, and the modeled burn probability is a different measure. The county mean annual burn probability is 1.37%.\n\nDo nearby communities have similar wildfire risk levels?\n\nNot always. For example, Pacific Grove is 16.1 while Carmel Valley is 62.3, so community-level medians can differ a lot within the same county.\n\nThis page is generated from a Monterey County data pack assembled on 2026-08-18 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's underwriting judgement. Data versions: fema\\_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc\\_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.\n\n## What does _your parcel_ look like, layer by layer?\n\nA county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.\n\n[Start with your address →](/#cta)\n\n[![PRR](/images/prr.png)](/ficha-de-website-voucher-satelife.pdf)\n\n© 2024–2026 Satelife, Lda. All rights reserved.\n\nSatelife reports are for informational purposes only and do not constitute insurance, financial, or legal advice."
}