{
  "title": "Wildfire Risk in Marin County, CA 2026 | Satelife",
  "description": "Wildfire risk in Marin County varies a lot from place to place. Across the places we scored, the lowest overall score is 12.7 in San Rafael, the highest is 73.2 in Kentfield, and the county middle is 40.2.",
  "image": "https://satelife.ai/images/wildfire-risk/marin-county/generated/marin-county-locator.webp",
  "canonical": "https://satelife.ai/wildfire-risk/california/marin-county/",
  "content": "[Home](/)›[Wildfire Risk](/wildfire-risk/)›[California](/wildfire-risk/california/)›Marin County\n\nMarin County, California\n\n# Wildfire risk in Marin County: _where it is highest_, and why\n\nWildfire risk in Marin County varies a lot from place to place. Across the places we scored, the lowest overall score is 12.7 in San Rafael, the highest is 73.2 in Kentfield, and the county middle is 40.2.\n\n[Score my Marin County address →](#score-my-address) [How risky is this county? ↓](#risk-at-a-glance)\n\nBefore 20002000s2010s2020sCommunity\n\nMarin County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.\n\nAt a glance\n\n## Half of Marin County scores _Moderate_ or worse\n\nWe scored 163 points across Marin County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 37% of them come out High, while 27% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.\n\n37%\n\n36%\n\n27%\n\n**High** 37% · 60 of 163 points **Moderate** 36% · 59 of 163 points **Low** 27% · 44 of 163 points\n\nSafest end we measured 12.7 near San Rafael · Low\n\nMiddle of the county 40.2 Moderate — half of Marin County is above this\n\nMost exposed end we measured 73.2 near Kentfield · High\n\n### And the federal models agree it is a fire county\n\nRelatively Moderate FEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 94.6 / 100\n\n$3.6M / yr FEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively Moderate\n\n0.46% USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 0.82%\n\n2.79 ft USFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 55% of the county carries burnable fuel\n\nFEMA NRI also rates Marin County: all-hazards risk Relatively High · social vulnerability Relatively Low · community resilience Very High · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0026.\n\nSources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.\n\nWhat does your Marin County address score?\n\nA county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.\n\nFree to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan\n\nLocal context\n\n## What the data says about _Marin County_\n\nBy tier, the largest group of scored places falls in High risk (60 points), with nearly as many in Moderate (59) and fewer in Low (44).\n\nFor a countywide benchmark, FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Marin County’s wildfire risk as Relatively Moderate, and its all-hazards risk as Relatively High.\n\nFire record\n\n## Where the fires _actually were_\n\nThe largest named fire in this record is Vision (1995) at 12,361 acres. The most recent large fire is Woodward (2020), which burned 4,907 acres.\n\nSince 1984, Marin County has had 23,655 acres burned across 143 mapped fire perimeters. That equals 4.6% of the county.\n\nOne notable fire that was partly in the county is Anderson (1965), at 4,954 acres.\n\n![Vision Fire (1995) in Marin County, California - Point Reyes National Seashore , in California . A forest burned by the Vision Fire in 1995 slopes down to Drakes Bay.](/images/wildfire-risk/marin-county/photos/point-reyes-burned-forest.webp)\n\n**Vision Fire, 1995** — Marin County. Photo: Smack ( talk ) · [Public domain](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Point_Reyes_burned_forest.jpg)\n\n![Woodward Fire (2020) in Marin County, California - Smoke rises from a forested ridge in the distance into a partly cloudy sky. Marin County and the San Francisco Bay Area experience](/images/wildfire-risk/marin-county/photos/woodward-fire-fires-revive-during-hot-and-dry-weather-septem.webp)\n\n**Woodward Fire, 2020** — Marin County. Photo: NPS Photo · [Public domain](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Woodward_Fire_-_Fires_Revive_during_Hot_and_Dry_Weather_-_September_28,_2020_-_5-39_pm_\\(7dd11866-8158-4fe1-a227-c329ea9afd83\\).jpg)\n\n143 mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984\n\n23,655 acres inside those perimeters since 1984\n\n4.6% of the county's area, as a share of 2,102.7 km²\n\nWoodward 2020 most recent large fire on record\n\nBefore 20002000s2010s2020s \n\nFire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size.\n\nNamed fires on record\n\n-   **Uknown Fire**192331,769 acres\n-   **Vision Fire**199512,361 acres\n-   **Woodward Fire**20204,907 acres\n-   **Uknown Fire**19173,573 acres\n-   **Anderson Fire**19654,954 acres in totalcrossed into the county\n-   **Devils Gulch Fire**19171,543 acres\n-   **Uknown Fire**19371,098 acres\n-   **Freitas Ranch Fire**19171,007 acres\n\nPerimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Vision 1995. Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.\n\nCommunities\n\n## Where in the county you are _matters most_\n\nAmong larger communities, Novato stands out with a higher median wildfire risk score of 49.8, while San Rafael is much lower at 12.7.\n\nSeveral southern and central towns cluster in the 30s, including Mill Valley at 35.3, Larkspur at 35.5, and Sausalito at 36.7.\n\nSome smaller communities score higher, including Fairfax at 60.2 and Point Reyes Station at 53.5.\n\nFairfax town · 7,120 people\n\n60.2 _High_\n\nPoint Reyes Station village\n\n53.5 _High_\n\nNovato town · 51,518 people\n\n49.8 _Moderate_\n\nSausalito town · 7,207 people\n\n36.7 _Moderate_\n\nLarkspur town · 11,746 people\n\n35.5 _Moderate_\n\nMill Valley town · 13,323 people\n\n35.3 _Moderate_\n\nBelvedere village · 2,073 people\n\n33.7 _Moderate_\n\nTiburon town · 9,146 people\n\n31 _Moderate_\n\nRoss village · 2,300 people\n\n31 _Moderate_\n\nSan Anselmo town · 12,043 people\n\n29.4 _Moderate_\n\n3 more communities in Marin County\n\nKentfield village\n\n27.7 _Moderate_\n\nCorte Madera town · 9,313 people\n\n18.7 _Low_\n\nSan Rafael city · 58,704 people\n\n12.7 _Low_\n\nThe score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the community's own record where the source carries one.\n\nTerrain & fuels\n\n## Terrain, vegetation and _fuels_\n\nTerrain contributes unevenly to wildfire risk in Marin County. Terrain scores run from 5.0 in Mill Valley up to 40.0 in Sausalito, with a middle value of 20.0.\n\nVegetation and fuels show an even wider spread, from 5.0 in Mill Valley to 80.0 in Sausalito, with a middle value of 42.3. Higher vegetation-and-fuels scores are associated with higher overall wildfire risk in some locations.\n\n20 median terrain score (max 40 near Sausalito)\n\n42.3 median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near Sausalito)\n\nFire weather\n\n## Fire weather across _Marin County_\n\nFire weather was measured across the county, and it is consistently elevated compared with some other factors. Scores run from 60.2 in Novato to 74.1 near Point Reyes Station, with a middle value of 67.0.\n\nSeparate from fire weather, a national modeled burn-probability product estimates mean annual burn probability at 0.46%, with higher-end cells at 0.82%. It also shows 55.4% of the county in areas that can burn.\n\n60.2 lowest fire-weather score — near Novato\n\n74.1 highest fire-weather score — near Point Reyes Station\n\nWhat drives it\n\n## Which part of the risk _moves_, and which doesn't\n\nRisk is not uniform inside the county. The lowest scored location is in San Rafael at 12.7, while the highest scored location is in Kentfield at 73.2.\n\nCommunity medians also spread out: Fairfax is at 60.2, Point Reyes Station is at 53.5, and Novato is at 49.8. Those are all well above San Rafael’s median of 12.7.\n\nEach bar is what one part of the score covers across Marin County, on the same 0–100 scale. A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same almost everywhere.\n\nTerrain\n\n5–40 highest near Sausalito\n\nVegetation & fuels\n\n5–80 highest near Sausalito\n\nHazard zone\n\n10–90 highest near Kentfield\n\nFire history\n\n5–95 highest near Sausalito\n\nFire weather\n\n60.2–74.1 highest near Point Reyes Station\n\nOverall score\n\n12.7–73.2 highest near Kentfield\n\nThe tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50, Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.\n\nShow every number behind these bars\n\nLayer\n\nMin\n\nMedian\n\nMax\n\nLowest place\n\nHighest place\n\nPoints\n\nTerrain\n\n5\n\n20\n\n40\n\nMill Valley\n\nSausalito\n\n163\n\nVegetation & fuels\n\n5\n\n42.3\n\n80\n\nMill Valley\n\nSausalito\n\n163\n\nHazard zone\n\n10\n\n40\n\n90\n\nMill Valley\n\nKentfield\n\n163\n\nFire history\n\n5\n\n20\n\n95\n\nMill Valley\n\nSausalito\n\n163\n\nFire weather\n\n60.2\n\n67\n\n74.1\n\nNovato\n\nnear Point Reyes Station\n\n163\n\nComposite\n\n12.7\n\n40.2\n\n73.2\n\nSan Rafael\n\nKentfield\n\n163\n\nIndependently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at **0.46%** (90th percentile cell: **0.82%**), with a mean conditional flame length of **2.79 ft**. **55%** of the 23,434 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.\n\nSource: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).\n\nCAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at **65** of the 163 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas. At **24** of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead; at the remaining 41 the hazard weight is renormalised away rather than scored as low.\n\n163 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 100%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.\n\nFor a property\n\n## What a county range means for _one address_\n\nThis county page does not measure the condition of an individual home or lot.\n\nWhat it does include are place-based factors tied to property exposure. Hazard zone scores range from 10.0 in Mill Valley to 90.0 in Kentfield, with a middle value of 40.0.\n\nIt also includes local fire history as a contributor to risk: scores range from 5.0 in Mill Valley to 95.0 in Sausalito, with a middle value of 20.0.\n\nAcross 163 sampled points in Marin County, the score runs from 12.7 to 73.2 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers. A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.\n\nFind out where your Marin County parcel sits\n\nSlope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.\n\nFree to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan\n\nCoverage\n\n## ZIP codes we cover in Marin County\n\nEvery one of the 34 ZIP areas that touch Marin County — we run address-level reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and **not** a score for any property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.\n\n**High** 14 ZIPs\n\n-   [94924 Fairfax69](/wildfire-risk/zip/94924/)\n-   [94970 Kentfield66](/wildfire-risk/zip/94970/)\n-   [94950 Point Reyes Station61](/wildfire-risk/zip/94950/)\n-   [94941 Kentfield60](/wildfire-risk/zip/94941/)\n-   [94930 Fairfax60](/wildfire-risk/zip/94930/)\n-   [94949 Novato59](/wildfire-risk/zip/94949/)\n-   [94956 Point Reyes Station58](/wildfire-risk/zip/94956/)\n-   [94933 Fairfax56](/wildfire-risk/zip/94933/)\n-   [94946 Point Reyes Station55](/wildfire-risk/zip/94946/)\n-   [94940 Point Reyes Station55](/wildfire-risk/zip/94940/)\n-   [94938 Point Reyes Station52](/wildfire-risk/zip/94938/)\n-   [94952 Point Reyes Station52](/wildfire-risk/zip/94952/)\n-   [94937 Point Reyes Station51](/wildfire-risk/zip/94937/)\n-   [94965 Sausalito50](/wildfire-risk/zip/94965/)\n\n**Moderate** 11 ZIPs\n\n-   [94929 Point Reyes Station49](/wildfire-risk/zip/94929/)\n-   [94947 Novato45](/wildfire-risk/zip/94947/)\n-   [94971 Point Reyes Station44](/wildfire-risk/zip/94971/)\n-   [94960 Fairfax38](/wildfire-risk/zip/94960/)\n-   [94920 Tiburon36](/wildfire-risk/zip/94920/)\n-   [94903 Fairfax31](/wildfire-risk/zip/94903/)\n-   [94939 Larkspur31](/wildfire-risk/zip/94939/)\n-   [94901 San Rafael31](/wildfire-risk/zip/94901/)\n-   [94957 Ross29](/wildfire-risk/zip/94957/)\n-   [94945 Novato29](/wildfire-risk/zip/94945/)\n-   [94904 Kentfield28](/wildfire-risk/zip/94904/)\n\n**Low** 1 ZIP\n\n-   [94925 Corte Madera19](/wildfire-risk/zip/94925/)\n\n**No sampled point inside** 8 ZIPs\n\n[94801 Tiburon](/wildfire-risk/zip/94801/) · [94923 Point Reyes Station](/wildfire-risk/zip/94923/) · [94954 Novato](/wildfire-risk/zip/94954/) · [94963 Fairfax](/wildfire-risk/zip/94963/) · [94964 Corte Madera](/wildfire-risk/zip/94964/) · [94972 Point Reyes Station](/wildfire-risk/zip/94972/) · [94973 Fairfax](/wildfire-risk/zip/94973/) · [95476 Novato](/wildfire-risk/zip/95476/)\n\nGrouped from 26 of 34 ZIP areas — the rest had no sample point fall inside them. The community shown is the nearest mapped place to the ZIP's centre.\n\nZIP areas are Census 2020 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas intersecting the county boundary.\n\nWhere to go next\n\n## Marin County wildfire risk _in context_\n\n[California wildfire risk The statewide picture and every county page we publish](/wildfire-risk/california/) [Wildfire risk by state Every state and county we cover](/wildfire-risk/) [How Satelife calculates wildfire risk Data sources, layers, score composition, honest limits](/wildfire-risk/methodology/) [Create a wildfire evacuation plan Zones, egress routes, refuge areas](/wildfire-evacuation-plan/) [Run a report for a Marin County address PDF + score + mitigation plan](/#cta)\n\nFAQ\n\n## Frequently asked questions about _Marin County wildfire risk_\n\nWhat is the single most important fire to know here?\n\nBy size in this record, it is the Vision fire (1995) at 12,361 acres. The most recent large fire is Woodward (2020), at 4,907 acres.\n\nHow much of Marin County has burned in recent decades?\n\nSince 1984, 23,655 acres have burned, which is 4.6% of the county.\n\nAre all Marin communities at similar wildfire risk?\n\nNo. The places scored range from low values like San Rafael (12.7 median) to higher values like Fairfax (60.2 median).\n\nIs this page giving a fire-weather forecast?\n\nNo. It reports wildfire risk conditions and contributors. Fire weather is one contributor, with scores from 60.2 to 74.1 in the places measured.\n\nHow does FEMA rate Marin County overall?\n\nFEMA’s National Risk Index rates Marin County’s wildfire risk as Relatively Moderate, and its expected annual wildfire loss rating is also Relatively Moderate.\n\nThis page is generated from a Marin County data pack assembled on 2026-08-19 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's underwriting judgement. Data versions: fema\\_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc\\_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.\n\n## What does _your parcel_ look like, layer by layer?\n\nA county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.\n\n[Start with your address →](/#cta)\n\n[![PRR](/images/prr.png)](/ficha-de-website-voucher-satelife.pdf)\n\n© 2024–2026 Satelife, Lda. All rights reserved.\n\nSatelife reports are for informational purposes only and do not constitute insurance, financial, or legal advice."
}