{
  "title": "Wildfire Risk in Lake County, CA 2026 | Satelife",
  "description": "Wildfire risk in Lake County is generally elevated across the places we scored. The county’s middle score is 71.3, with results ranging from 17.6 in Lucerne to 84.1 in Spring Valley.",
  "image": "https://satelife.ai/images/wildfire-risk/lake-county/generated/lake-county-locator.webp",
  "canonical": "https://satelife.ai/wildfire-risk/california/lake-county/",
  "content": "[Home](/)›[Wildfire Risk](/wildfire-risk/)›[California](/wildfire-risk/california/)›Lake County\n\nLake County, California\n\n# Wildfire risk in Lake County: _where it is highest_, and why\n\nWildfire risk in Lake County is generally elevated across the places we scored. The county’s middle score is 71.3, with results ranging from 17.6 in Lucerne to 84.1 in Spring Valley.\n\n[Score my Lake County address →](#score-my-address) [How risky is this county? ↓](#risk-at-a-glance)\n\nBefore 20002000s2010s2020sCommunity\n\nLake County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.\n\nAt a glance\n\n## Half of Lake County scores _High_ or worse\n\nWe scored 161 points across Lake County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 39% of them come out Very High, while 2% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.\n\n39%\n\n54%\n\n**Very High** 39% · 62 of 161 points **High** 54% · 87 of 161 points **Moderate** 6% · 9 of 161 points **Low** 2% · 3 of 161 points\n\nSafest end we measured 17.6 near Lucerne · Low\n\nMiddle of the county 71.3 High — half of Lake County is above this\n\nMost exposed end we measured 84.1 near Spring Valley · Very High\n\n### And the federal models agree it is a fire county\n\nRelatively High FEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 99.1 / 100\n\n$20.3M / yr FEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively High\n\n1.88% USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 4.00%\n\n6.19 ft USFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 95% of the county carries burnable fuel\n\nFEMA NRI also rates Lake County: all-hazards risk Relatively Moderate · social vulnerability Relatively High · community resilience Relatively Low · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0169.\n\nSources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.\n\nWhat does your Lake County address score?\n\nA county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.\n\nFree to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan\n\nLocal context\n\n## What the data says about _Lake County_\n\nMost scored points fell in the High tier (87 points), followed by Very High (62 points). That pattern lines up with a county that has seen repeated fire activity over time.\n\nFire record\n\n## Where the fires _actually were_\n\nLake County has had 157 mapped fire perimeters since 1984, and 738,119 acres have burned in that period. In total, 87.2% of the county has burned since 1984.\n\nThe largest fire listed here is the Ranch Fire in 2018 at 410,202 acres. It is also the most recent large fire in this county record.\n\nOther major fires tied to Lake County include the Doe Fire (2020), which burned 589,835 acres and was partly in the county, and the Valley Fire (2015), which burned 76,085 acres and destroyed 1,955 structures. The Rocky Fire (2015), River Fire (2018), Pawnee Fire (2018), Jerusalem Fire (2015), and Fork Fire (1996, partly in county) are also part of the county’s fire history.\n\n![Ranch Fire (2018) in Lake County, California - In a year of record-breaking fires, California scored another record on August 7, 2018, when the Mendocino Complex burst into the ](/images/wildfire-risk/lake-county/photos/california-wildfires-modis-2018-08-08.webp)\n\n**Ranch Fire, 2018** — Lake County. Photo: MODIS Land Rapid Response Team, NASA GSFC · [Public domain](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:California_Wildfires_\\(MODIS_2018-08-08\\).jpg)\n\n![Valley Fire (2015) in Lake County, California - The original finding aid described this as: Date Taken: 2015-09-25 00:19:10 UTC Photographer name: Adam DuBrowa City/State: Angele](/images/wildfire-risk/lake-county/photos/angeles-cam-ca-september-25-2015-fema-region-ix-administrato.webp)\n\n**Valley Fire, 2015** — Lake County. Photo: Department of Homeland Security. Federal Emergency Management Agency. Public Affairs Division. 3/1/2003 · [Public domain](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Angeles_Cam,_CA-_September_25,_2015-FEMA_Region_IX_Administrator_Robert_Fenton_discusses_software_innovations_and_communications_at_the_Incident_Command_Post_with_Calfire_Department_-_DPLA_-_461c34f6e7766d148782f6a8ba399742.JPG)\n\n157 mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984\n\n738,119 acres inside those perimeters since 1984\n\n87.2% of the county's area, as a share of 3,424.3 km²\n\nRanch 2018 most recent large fire on record\n\nBefore 20002000s2010s2020s \n\nFire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size.\n\nNamed fires on record\n\n-   **Ranch Fire**2018410,202 acres\n-   **Valley Fire**201576,085 acres1,955 structures destroyed\n-   **Doe Fire**2020589,835 acres in totalcrossed into the county\n-   **Rocky Fire**201569,438 acres\n-   **River Fire**201848,920 acres\n-   **Fork Fire**199683,057 acres in totalcrossed into the county\n-   **Jerusalem Fire**201525,118 acres\n-   **Pawnee Fire**201815,197 acres\n\nPerimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Ranch 2018. Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.\n\nCommunities\n\n## Where in the county you are _matters most_\n\nCommunity-level results show meaningful differences around the county. Spring Valley (79.4), Cobb (78.6), and Midlakes (76.1) are among the higher-scored places listed here.\n\nLower-scored communities include Lucerne at 58.9 and Lakeport at 63.3, while Clearlake is higher at 73.9. These gaps are large enough that two homes in different towns can sit in clearly different wildfire-risk contexts.\n\nSpring Valley village · 964 people\n\n79.4 _Very High_\n\nCobb town · 1,778 people\n\n78.6 _Very High_\n\nKelseyville village · 3,382 people\n\n76.5 _Very High_\n\nMidlakes village\n\n76.1 _Very High_\n\nClearlake town · 16,636 people\n\n73.9 _High_\n\nMiddletown village\n\n72.6 _High_\n\nClearlake Oaks village · 2,551 people\n\n72 _High_\n\nUpper Lake village\n\n68.5 _High_\n\nNice village · 2,929 people\n\n68.2 _High_\n\nLakeport town · 5,026 people\n\n63.3 _High_\n\n1 more communities in Lake County\n\nLucerne village · 3,266 people\n\n58.9 _High_\n\nThe score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the community's own record where the source carries one.\n\nTerrain & fuels\n\n## Terrain, vegetation and _fuels_\n\nTerrain scores in Lake County are mostly on the higher side, with a county middle value of 65.0. In the places scored, terrain runs from 40.0 in Middletown to 65.0 in Cobb.\n\nVegetation and fuels vary much more. That score ranges from 5.0 in Clearlake Oaks to 80.0 in Middletown, with a county middle value of 74.5.\n\n65 median terrain score (max 65 near Cobb)\n\n74.5 median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near Middletown)\n\nFire weather\n\n## Fire weather across _Lake County_\n\nFire weather was measured across the county, and scores are consistently elevated. Values run from 53.8 near Upper Lake to 65.2 in Spring Valley, with a middle value of 63.1.\n\nA separate national model from the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities project reports a mean annual burn probability of 1.88% for Lake County, with a 90th-percentile cell at 4.00%. It also indicates that 95% of the county can burn.\n\n53.8 lowest fire-weather score — near Upper Lake\n\n65.2 highest fire-weather score — near Spring Valley\n\nWhat drives it\n\n## Which part of the risk _moves_, and which doesn't\n\nRisk is not uniform across Lake County. Among named communities, Spring Valley is at 79.4 while Lucerne is at 58.9, showing a wide local spread.\n\nSeveral other communities cluster on the higher side, including Cobb at 78.6 and Kelseyville at 76.5, while Lakeport is lower at 63.3. For buyers and owners, that means neighborhood-level differences can be substantial even within the same county.\n\nEach bar is what one part of the score covers across Lake County, on the same 0–100 scale. A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same almost everywhere.\n\nTerrain\n\n40–65 highest near Cobb\n\nVegetation & fuels\n\n5–80 highest near Middletown\n\nHazard zone\n\n10–96.3 highest near Spring Valley\n\nFire history\n\n5–95 highest near Middletown\n\nFire weather\n\n53.8–65.2 highest near Spring Valley\n\nOverall score\n\n17.6–84.1 highest near Spring Valley\n\nThe tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50, Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.\n\nShow every number behind these bars\n\nLayer\n\nMin\n\nMedian\n\nMax\n\nLowest place\n\nHighest place\n\nPoints\n\nTerrain\n\n40\n\n65\n\n65\n\nMiddletown\n\nCobb\n\n161\n\nVegetation & fuels\n\n5\n\n74.5\n\n80\n\nClearlake Oaks\n\nMiddletown\n\n161\n\nHazard zone\n\n10\n\n90\n\n96.3\n\nClearlake\n\nSpring Valley\n\n161\n\nFire history\n\n5\n\n80\n\n95\n\nLucerne\n\nMiddletown\n\n161\n\nFire weather\n\n53.8\n\n63.1\n\n65.2\n\nnear Upper Lake\n\nSpring Valley\n\n161\n\nComposite\n\n17.6\n\n71.3\n\n84.1\n\nLucerne\n\nSpring Valley\n\n161\n\nIndependently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at **1.88%** (90th percentile cell: **4.00%**), with a mean conditional flame length of **6.19 ft**. **95%** of the 20,828 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.\n\nSource: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).\n\nCAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at **62** of the 161 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas. At **62** of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead.\n\n161 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 100%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.\n\nFor a property\n\n## What a county range means for _one address_\n\nTwo property-relevant factors are especially high in many parts of Lake County: hazard zone and past fire activity. Hazard-zone scores range from 10.0 in Clearlake to 96.3 in Spring Valley, with a county middle value of 90.0.\n\nFire-history scores show a similar pattern of elevated exposure over time. They range from 5.0 in Lucerne to 95.0 in Middletown, and the county middle value is 80.0.\n\nFEMA’s National Risk Index rates Lake County’s wildfire risk as \"Relatively High\" and its wildfire expected annual loss as \"Relatively High.\" FEMA also rates overall all-hazards risk as \"Relatively Moderate,\" social vulnerability as \"Relatively High,\" and community resilience as \"Relatively Low.\"\n\nAcross 161 sampled points in Lake County, the score runs from 17.6 to 84.1 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers. A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.\n\nFind out where your Lake County parcel sits\n\nSlope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.\n\nFree to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan\n\nCoverage\n\n## ZIP codes we cover in Lake County\n\nEvery one of the 25 ZIP areas that touch Lake County — we run address-level reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and **not** a score for any property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.\n\n**Very High** 4 ZIPs\n\n-   [95426 Cobb80](/wildfire-risk/zip/95426/)\n-   [95451 Kelseyville77](/wildfire-risk/zip/95451/)\n-   [95443 Clearlake Oaks77](/wildfire-risk/zip/95443/)\n-   [95457 Clearlake75](/wildfire-risk/zip/95457/)\n\n**High** 10 ZIPs\n\n-   [95423 Spring Valley75](/wildfire-risk/zip/95423/)\n-   [95461 Middletown74](/wildfire-risk/zip/95461/)\n-   [95469 Midlakes73](/wildfire-risk/zip/95469/)\n-   [95493 Midlakes71](/wildfire-risk/zip/95493/)\n-   [95453 Lakeport71](/wildfire-risk/zip/95453/)\n-   [95422 Clearlake70](/wildfire-risk/zip/95422/)\n-   [95485 Upper Lake69](/wildfire-risk/zip/95485/)\n-   [95467 Middletown69](/wildfire-risk/zip/95467/)\n-   [95464 Nice65](/wildfire-risk/zip/95464/)\n-   [95458 Lucerne54](/wildfire-risk/zip/95458/)\n\n**No sampled point inside** 11 ZIPs\n\n[94515 Middletown](/wildfire-risk/zip/94515/) · [94558](/wildfire-risk/zip/94558/) · [94567 Middletown](/wildfire-risk/zip/94567/) · [95425 Kelseyville](/wildfire-risk/zip/95425/) · [95435 Kelseyville](/wildfire-risk/zip/95435/) · [95448 Cobb](/wildfire-risk/zip/95448/) · [95449 Lakeport](/wildfire-risk/zip/95449/) · [95482 Midlakes](/wildfire-risk/zip/95482/) · [95939](/wildfire-risk/zip/95939/) · [95979 Spring Valley](/wildfire-risk/zip/95979/) · [95987 Spring Valley](/wildfire-risk/zip/95987/)\n\nGrouped from 14 of 25 ZIP areas — the rest had no sample point fall inside them. The community shown is the nearest mapped place to the ZIP's centre.\n\nZIP areas are Census 2020 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas intersecting the county boundary.\n\nWhere to go next\n\n## Lake County wildfire risk _in context_\n\n[California wildfire risk The statewide picture and every county page we publish](/wildfire-risk/california/) [Wildfire risk by state Every state and county we cover](/wildfire-risk/) [How Satelife calculates wildfire risk Data sources, layers, score composition, honest limits](/wildfire-risk/methodology/) [Create a wildfire evacuation plan Zones, egress routes, refuge areas](/wildfire-evacuation-plan/) [Run a report for a Lake County address PDF + score + mitigation plan](/#cta)\n\nFAQ\n\n## Frequently asked questions about _Lake County wildfire risk_\n\nWhat do these wildfire scores mean?\n\nThey are 0–100 scores for wildfire risk, where higher numbers mean more exposure.\n\nIs wildfire risk about the same everywhere in Lake County?\n\nNo. In the places scored, results range from 17.6 in Lucerne to 84.1 in Spring Valley.\n\nWhat is the largest and most recent large fire in this county record?\n\nBoth are the Ranch Fire (2018), at 410,202 acres.\n\nHow much of Lake County has burned since 1984?\n\n87.2% of the county has burned since 1984.\n\nHow does FEMA rate wildfire risk for Lake County?\n\nFEMA’s National Risk Index rates Lake County wildfire risk as \"Relatively High\" and wildfire expected annual loss as \"Relatively High.\"\n\nThis page is generated from a Lake County data pack assembled on 2026-08-18 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's underwriting judgement. Data versions: fema\\_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc\\_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.\n\n## What does _your parcel_ look like, layer by layer?\n\nA county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.\n\n[Start with your address →](/#cta)\n\n[![PRR](/images/prr.png)](/ficha-de-website-voucher-satelife.pdf)\n\n© 2024–2026 Satelife, Lda. All rights reserved.\n\nSatelife reports are for informational purposes only and do not constitute insurance, financial, or legal advice."
}