{
  "title": "Wildfire Risk in Santa Cruz County, Arizona 2026 | Satelife",
  "description": "Wildfire risk in Santa Cruz County varies a lot by location. In the places we scored, the overall score runs from 38.5 in Nogales to 83.1 near Rio Rico, with a county midpoint of 67.2.",
  "image": "https://satelife.ai/images/wildfire-risk/arizona/santa-cruz-county/generated/santa-cruz-county-locator.webp",
  "canonical": "https://satelife.ai/wildfire-risk/arizona/santa-cruz-county/",
  "content": "[Home](/)›[Wildfire Risk](/wildfire-risk/)›[Arizona](/wildfire-risk/arizona/)›Santa Cruz County\n\nSanta Cruz County, Arizona\n\n# Wildfire risk in Santa Cruz County: _where it is highest_, and why\n\nWildfire risk in Santa Cruz County varies a lot by location. In the places we scored, the overall score runs from 38.5 in Nogales to 83.1 near Rio Rico, with a county midpoint of 67.2.\n\n[Score my Santa Cruz County address →](#score-my-address) [How risky is this county? ↓](#risk-at-a-glance)\n\nBefore 20002000s2010s2020sCommunity\n\nSanta Cruz County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.\n\nAt a glance\n\n## Half of Santa Cruz County scores _High_ or worse\n\nWe scored 160 points across Santa Cruz County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 19% of them come out Very High, while 10% are Moderate. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.\n\n19%\n\n71%\n\n10%\n\n**Very High** 19% · 31 of 160 points **High** 71% · 113 of 160 points **Moderate** 10% · 16 of 160 points\n\nSafest end we measured 38.5 near Nogales · Moderate\n\nMiddle of the county 67.2 High — half of Santa Cruz County is above this\n\nMost exposed end we measured 83.1 near Rio Rico · Very High\n\n### And the federal models agree it is a fire county\n\nRelatively High FEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 98.1 / 100\n\n$7.9M / yr FEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively High\n\n1.37% USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 2.29%\n\n4.27 ft USFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 69% of the county carries burnable fuel\n\nFEMA NRI also rates Santa Cruz County: all-hazards risk Relatively Moderate · social vulnerability Very High · community resilience Very Low · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0129.\n\nSources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.\n\nWhat does your Santa Cruz County address score?\n\nA county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.\n\nFree to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan\n\nLocal context\n\n## What the data says about _Santa Cruz County_\n\nMost scored locations land in the High tier: 113 points were High, compared with 31 in Very High. No scored points were in the Low tier.\n\nFEMA’s National Risk Index rates Santa Cruz County’s wildfire risk as Relatively High, and its wildfire expected annual loss as Relatively High. FEMA also rates the county’s overall all-hazards risk as Relatively Moderate.\n\nFire record\n\n## Where the fires _actually were_\n\nSince 1984, 335,792 acres have burned in Santa Cruz County fire perimeters, and 42.6% of the county has burned over that period. The record shown here includes 184 fire perimeters since 1984.\n\nThe largest fire listed is Murphy (2011) at 70,739 acres. Other large fires in the list include Ryan (2002) at 38,155 acres and Florida (2005) at 23,209 acres.\n\nThe most recent large fire is Ranch (2025). Other recent fires in the county record include Tonto Canyon (2022), San Rafael (2022), and Beehive (2023).\n\n184 mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984\n\n335,792 acres inside those perimeters since 1984\n\n42.6% of the county's area, as a share of 3,192.1 km²\n\nRanch 2025 most recent large fire on record\n\nBefore 20002000s2010s2020s \n\nFire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size.\n\nNamed fires on record\n\n-   **Murphy Fire**201170,739 acres\n-   **Ryan Fire**200238,155 acres\n-   **Florida Fire**200523,209 acres\n-   **Tonto Canyon Fire**202213,562 acres\n-   **San Rafael Fire**202211,620 acres\n-   **Beehive Fire**202310,745 acres\n-   **Alamo Fire**20219,430 acres\n-   **Soldier Basin Fire**201310,773 acres\n\nPerimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Murphy 2011. Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.\n\nCommunities\n\n## Where in the county you are _matters most_\n\nAmong the named communities, higher overall scores appear in Kino Springs and Elgin. Kino Springs is at 74.6, and Elgin is at 70.1.\n\nA middle group includes Sonoita at 62.6, Patagonia at 62.5, and Tubac at 60.6. These are still elevated, just below the highest community values listed.\n\nLower listed community values include Nogales at 49.7 and Amado at 50.5. Rio Rico (54.9), Beyerville (54.8), and Tumacacori-Carmen (56.5) sit between those lower values and the county’s higher-scoring communities.\n\nKino Springs village\n\n74.6 _High_\n\nElgin village\n\n70.1 _High_\n\nSonoita village\n\n62.6 _High_\n\nPatagonia city\n\n62.5 _High_\n\nTubac village\n\n60.6 _High_\n\nTumacacori-Carmen village\n\n56.5 _High_\n\nRio Rico village\n\n54.9 _High_\n\nBeyerville village\n\n54.8 _High_\n\nAmado village\n\n50.5 _High_\n\nNogales city\n\n49.7 _Moderate_\n\nThe score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the community's own record where the source carries one.\n\nTerrain & fuels\n\n## Terrain, vegetation and _fuels_\n\nTerrain-related wildfire risk is elevated in much of the county and does not vary as sharply as some other factors. The terrain score ranges from 55.0 near Nogales to 65.0 in Nogales.\n\nVegetation and fuels show a wider spread. This score runs from 44.0 in Nogales to 80.0 near Nogales, with a county midpoint of 69.6.\n\nFire weather was not measured for this county in the places we scored.\n\n65 median terrain score (max 65 near Nogales)\n\n69.6 median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near Nogales)\n\nFire weather\n\n## Fire weather across _Santa Cruz County_\n\nFire weather was not measured at the sampled points in Santa Cruz County. The other four indicators on this page were, and the bars below show what they found.\n\nWhat drives it\n\n## Which part of the risk _moves_, and which doesn't\n\nAcross the county, scores are not uniform. The lowest scored point is in Nogales at 38.5, while the highest scored point is near Rio Rico at 83.1.\n\nHazard-zone scoring also swings widely by location, from 10.0 near Nogales to 90.9 near Rio Rico. Fire-history scoring ranges from 5.0 in Nogales to 95.0 near Nogales, which shows very different prior-burn exposure from one area to another.\n\nEach bar is what one part of the score covers across Santa Cruz County, on the same 0–100 scale. A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same almost everywhere.\n\nTerrain\n\n55–65 highest near Nogales\n\nVegetation & fuels\n\n44–80 highest near Nogales\n\nHazard zone\n\n10–90.9 highest near Rio Rico\n\nFire history\n\n5–95 highest near Nogales\n\nOverall score\n\n38.5–83.1 highest near Rio Rico\n\nThe tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50, Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.\n\nShow every number behind these bars\n\nLayer\n\nMin\n\nMedian\n\nMax\n\nLowest place\n\nHighest place\n\nPoints\n\nTerrain\n\n55\n\n65\n\n65\n\nnear Nogales\n\nNogales\n\n160\n\nVegetation & fuels\n\n44\n\n69.6\n\n80\n\nNogales\n\nnear Nogales\n\n160\n\nHazard zone\n\n10\n\n55.5\n\n90.9\n\nnear Nogales\n\nnear Rio Rico\n\n160\n\nFire history\n\n5\n\n90\n\n95\n\nNogales\n\nnear Nogales\n\n160\n\nComposite\n\n38.5\n\n67.2\n\n83.1\n\nNogales\n\nnear Rio Rico\n\n160\n\nIndependently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at **1.37%** (90th percentile cell: **2.29%**), with a mean conditional flame length of **4.27 ft**. **69%** of the 33,336 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.\n\nSource: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).\n\nCAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at **160** of the 160 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas, and most of this county is state or federal land. At **112** of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead; at the remaining 48 the hazard weight is renormalised away rather than scored as low.\n\n160 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 90%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.\n\nFor a property\n\n## What a county range means for _one address_\n\nFor property-level context, local hazard-zone scores differ sharply even within short distances. The highest listed hazard-zone value is 90.9 near Rio Rico, while a low point of 10.0 appears near Nogales.\n\nPast-fire exposure also differs a lot by place. Fire-history scores range from 5.0 in Nogales to 95.0 near Nogales, with a midpoint of 90.0 across the county’s scored locations.\n\nA separate USFS model reports mean annual burn probability as 1.37% and a 90th-percentile cell value of 2.29%. It also indicates that 68.5% of the county is in areas that can burn.\n\nAcross 160 sampled points in Santa Cruz County, the score runs from 38.5 to 83.1 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers. A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.\n\nFind out where your Santa Cruz County parcel sits\n\nSlope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.\n\nFree to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan\n\nCoverage\n\n## ZIP codes we cover in Santa Cruz County\n\nEvery one of the 13 ZIP areas that touch Santa Cruz County — we run address-level reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and **not** a score for any property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.\n\n**Very High** 1 ZIP\n\n-   [85621 Rio Rico75](/wildfire-risk/zip/85621/)\n\n**High** 8 ZIPs\n\n-   [85611 Elgin69](/wildfire-risk/zip/85611/)\n-   [85624 Patagonia68](/wildfire-risk/zip/85624/)\n-   [85637 Sonoita61](/wildfire-risk/zip/85637/)\n-   [85648 Rio Rico58](/wildfire-risk/zip/85648/)\n-   [85614 Amado57](/wildfire-risk/zip/85614/)\n-   [85640 Tumacacori-Carmen54](/wildfire-risk/zip/85640/)\n-   [85646 Tubac51](/wildfire-risk/zip/85646/)\n-   [85645 Amado51](/wildfire-risk/zip/85645/)\n\n**No sampled point inside** 4 ZIPs\n\n[85601 Tubac](/wildfire-risk/zip/85601/) · [85615](/wildfire-risk/zip/85615/) · [85622 Amado](/wildfire-risk/zip/85622/) · [85633](/wildfire-risk/zip/85633/)\n\nGrouped from 9 of 13 ZIP areas — the rest had no sample point fall inside them. The community shown is the nearest mapped place to the ZIP's centre.\n\nZIP areas are Census 2020 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas intersecting the county boundary.\n\nWhere to go next\n\n## Santa Cruz County wildfire risk _in context_\n\n[Arizona wildfire risk The statewide picture and every county page we publish](/wildfire-risk/arizona/) [Wildfire risk by state Every state and county we cover](/wildfire-risk/) [How Satelife calculates wildfire risk Data sources, layers, score composition, honest limits](/wildfire-risk/methodology/) [Create a wildfire evacuation plan Zones, egress routes, refuge areas](/wildfire-evacuation-plan/) [Run a report for a Santa Cruz County address PDF + score + mitigation plan](/#cta)\n\nFAQ\n\n## Frequently asked questions about _Santa Cruz County wildfire risk_\n\nWhat is the largest fire listed for Santa Cruz County?\n\nThe largest listed fire is Murphy (2011), at 70,739 acres.\n\nWhat is the most recent large fire?\n\nThe most recent large fire is Ranch (2025).\n\nDoes most of the county score in High or Very High risk tiers?\n\nMost scored locations are in the High tier (113 points), with another 31 points in Very High.\n\nWas fire weather measured countywide here?\n\nNo. Fire weather was not measured for this county in the places we scored.\n\nHow does FEMA rate wildfire risk for the county overall?\n\nFEMA’s National Risk Index rates Santa Cruz County’s wildfire risk as Relatively High, and its wildfire expected annual loss as Relatively High.\n\nThis page is generated from a Santa Cruz County data pack assembled on 2026-09-05 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's underwriting judgement. Data versions: fema\\_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc\\_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.\n\n## What does _your parcel_ look like, layer by layer?\n\nA county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.\n\n[Start with your address →](/#cta)\n\n[![PRR](/images/prr.png)](/ficha-de-website-voucher-satelife.pdf)\n\n© 2024–2026 Satelife, Lda. All rights reserved.\n\nSatelife reports are for informational purposes only and do not constitute insurance, financial, or legal advice."
}