{
  "title": "Wildfire Risk in Navajo County, Arizona 2026 | Satelife",
  "description": "Wildfire risk in Navajo County spans a wide range across the places we scored. The county’s middle score is 47.5, with lower-scoring locations down to 21.2 in Snowflake and higher-scoring locations up to 78.2 in Heber–Overgaard, Arizona.",
  "image": "https://satelife.ai/images/wildfire-risk/arizona/navajo-county/generated/navajo-county-locator.webp",
  "canonical": "https://satelife.ai/wildfire-risk/arizona/navajo-county/",
  "content": "[Home](/)›[Wildfire Risk](/wildfire-risk/)›[Arizona](/wildfire-risk/arizona/)›Navajo County\n\nNavajo County, Arizona\n\n# Wildfire risk in Navajo County: _where it is highest_, and why\n\nWildfire risk in Navajo County spans a wide range across the places we scored. The county’s middle score is 47.5, with lower-scoring locations down to 21.2 in Snowflake and higher-scoring locations up to 78.2 in Heber–Overgaard, Arizona.\n\n[Score my Navajo County address →](#score-my-address) [How risky is this county? ↓](#risk-at-a-glance)\n\nBefore 20002000s2010s2020sCommunity\n\nNavajo County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.\n\nAt a glance\n\n## Half of Navajo County scores _Moderate_ or worse\n\nWe scored 197 points across Navajo County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 2% of them come out Very High, while 1% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.\n\n37%\n\n60%\n\n**Very High** 2% · 4 of 197 points **High** 37% · 72 of 197 points **Moderate** 60% · 119 of 197 points **Low** 1% · 2 of 197 points\n\nSafest end we measured 21.2 near Snowflake · Low\n\nMiddle of the county 47.5 Moderate — half of Navajo County is above this\n\nMost exposed end we measured 78.2 near Heber–Overgaard, Arizona · Very High\n\n### And the federal models agree it is a fire county\n\nRelatively High FEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 98.8 / 100\n\n$12.3M / yr FEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively High\n\n0.45% USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 1.54%\n\n5.88 ft USFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 100% of the county carries burnable fuel\n\nFEMA NRI also rates Navajo County: all-hazards risk Relatively Moderate · social vulnerability Very High · community resilience Very Low · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0044.\n\nSources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.\n\nWhat does your Navajo County address score?\n\nA county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.\n\nFree to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan\n\nLocal context\n\n## What the data says about _Navajo County_\n\nMost scored places fall in the Moderate tier (119 points), followed by High (72 points). FEMA’s National Risk Index rates the county’s wildfire risk as Relatively High, and also rates expected annual wildfire loss as Relatively High.\n\nFire record\n\n## Where the fires _actually were_\n\nSince 1984, 510,434 acres have burned in Navajo County, and that equals 8% of the county. Over that same period, there have been 104 mapped fire perimeters.\n\nThe largest fire listed here is Rodeo-Chediski (2002), at 460,563 acres.\n\nThe most recent large fire is Wyrick (2021), at 7,593 acres.\n\n![Rodeo-Chediski Fire (2002) in Navajo County, Arizona - Rodeo-Chediski Fire , Arizona, USA. 2002. Original Description: On June 21, 2002, the Rodeo and Chediski Fires in east-central Ari](/images/wildfire-risk/arizona/navajo-county/photos/rodeo-chediski-fire.webp)\n\n**Rodeo-Chediski Fire, 2002** — Navajo County. Photo: Sensor: Landsat 7/ETM+ Credit: Image by Jesse Allen, based on data courtesy Landsat 7 Science Team, NASA GSFC. · [Public domain](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Rodeo-Chediski_Fire.jpg)\n\n104 mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984\n\n510,434 acres inside those perimeters since 1984\n\n8.0% of the county's area, as a share of 25,671.1 km²\n\nWyrick 2021 most recent large fire on record\n\nBefore 20002000s2010s2020s \n\nFire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size.\n\nNamed fires on record\n\n-   **Rodeo-Chediski Fire**2002460,563 acres\n-   **Carrizo Fire**197155,118 acres\n-   **Wyrick Fire**20217,593 acres\n-   **377 Fire**20185,152 acres\n-   **Hub Point Fire**20185,057 acres\n-   **Potato Fire**20066,165 acres\n-   **Rocky Fire**20193,702 acres\n-   **Fill Fire**20163,246 acres\n\nPerimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Rodeo-Chediski 2002. Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.\n\nCommunities\n\n## Where in the county you are _matters most_\n\nAmong the larger named places, Winslow scores higher at 60.1, while Show Low is 50.5 and Snowflake is 44.8. That gives buyers and owners a quick sense that nearby markets can sit in different risk bands.\n\nSeveral smaller communities score higher than many towns. Heber–Overgaard, Arizona is 67.5 and Oraibi is 68.1, while Kayenta is lower at 38.7.\n\nOraibi village\n\n68.1 _High_\n\nHeber–Overgaard, Arizona village\n\n67.5 _High_\n\nNorth Fork village\n\n60.9 _High_\n\nHondah village\n\n60.4 _High_\n\nWinslow town · 9,005 people\n\n60.1 _High_\n\nHotevilla village\n\n60.1 _High_\n\nIndian Pine village\n\n59.5 _High_\n\nTurkey Creek village\n\n59.5 _High_\n\nEast Fork / Hawúʼishįįhé village\n\n58.4 _High_\n\nBacavi village\n\n55 _High_\n\n37 more communities in Navajo County\n\nPinetop Country Club village\n\n54.6 _High_\n\nCibecue / Dishchiiʼ Bikoh village\n\n54.4 _High_\n\nLake of the Woods village\n\n53.6 _High_\n\nKeams Canyon village · 304 people\n\n53.1 _High_\n\nRainbow City village\n\n52.9 _High_\n\nKykotsmovi village\n\n52.1 _High_\n\nSpider Mound / Yuwehloo Pahki village\n\n50.7 _High_\n\nShow Low city · 11,732 people\n\n50.5 _High_\n\nWhiteriver / Chʼilwózh town · 4,104 people\n\n50.5 _High_\n\nOljato-Monument Valley village\n\n50.4 _High_\n\nPinetop-Lakeside village · 4,442 people\n\n49.3 _Moderate_\n\nLow Mountain village\n\n48.4 _Moderate_\n\nToreva village\n\n48.1 _Moderate_\n\nWhippoorwill Springs village\n\n48.1 _Moderate_\n\nShipaulovi / Supawlavi village\n\n48 _Moderate_\n\nGreasewood village\n\n47.6 _Moderate_\n\nPolacca village\n\n46.2 _Moderate_\n\nShungopavi village\n\n46.2 _Moderate_\n\nPinon village · 1,084 people\n\n46 _Moderate_\n\nWhite Cone village\n\n46 _Moderate_\n\nMishongnovi village\n\n45.6 _Moderate_\n\nHard Rock / Tsé Dildǫ́ʼí village\n\n45.5 _Moderate_\n\nSnowflake town · 5,764 people\n\n44.8 _Moderate_\n\nSeba Dalkai village\n\n44.8 _Moderate_\n\nBlack Mesa / Kitsʼiilí village\n\n43.7 _Moderate_\n\nDilkǫǫh village\n\n42.3 _Moderate_\n\nWagon Wheel village\n\n42.2 _Moderate_\n\nHolbrook town · 5,154 people\n\n41.4 _Moderate_\n\nIndian Wells village\n\n41.1 _Moderate_\n\nJoseph City town · 1,386 people\n\n40.5 _Moderate_\n\nForest Lake / Tsinyiʼ Beʼekʼid village\n\n40.4 _Moderate_\n\nJeddito village\n\n40.1 _Moderate_\n\nTees Toh village\n\n39.6 _Moderate_\n\nShonto village · 494 people\n\n39.5 _Moderate_\n\nKayenta town · 5,189 people\n\n38.7 _Moderate_\n\nChilchinbeto village\n\n38.5 _Moderate_\n\nTaylor village · 3,995 people\n\n30 _Moderate_\n\nThe score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the community's own record where the source carries one.\n\nTerrain & fuels\n\n## Terrain, vegetation and _fuels_\n\nTerrain scores are fairly tight in Navajo County, from 55.0 near Turkey Creek to 65.0 near Cibecue / Dishchiiʼ Bikoh. That points to some topographic variation, but not an extreme countywide spread.\n\nVegetation and fuels show a bigger split. This factor is as low as 20.0 in Winslow and reaches 80.0 in Snowflake, with a county middle value of 75.4.\n\n55 median terrain score (max 65 near Cibecue / Dishchiiʼ Bikoh)\n\n75.4 median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near Snowflake)\n\nFire weather\n\n## Fire weather across _Navajo County_\n\nFire weather was not measured at the sampled points in Navajo County. The other four indicators on this page were, and the bars below show what they found.\n\nWhat drives it\n\n## Which part of the risk _moves_, and which doesn't\n\nRisk is not the same from one part of the county to another. In the hazard-zone factor, scores run from 10.0 near Holbrook to 94.3 near Lake of the Woods.\n\nRecent and past burn patterns also vary sharply by location. In the fire-history factor, scores range from 5.0 near Turkey Creek to 95.0 in Heber–Overgaard, Arizona.\n\nEach bar is what one part of the score covers across Navajo County, on the same 0–100 scale. A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same almost everywhere.\n\nTerrain\n\n55–65 highest near Cibecue / Dishchiiʼ Bikoh\n\nVegetation & fuels\n\n20–80 highest near Snowflake\n\nHazard zone\n\n10–94.3 highest near Lake of the Woods\n\nFire history\n\n5–95 highest near Heber–Overgaard, Arizona\n\nOverall score\n\n21.2–78.2 highest near Heber–Overgaard, Arizona\n\nThe tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50, Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.\n\nShow every number behind these bars\n\nLayer\n\nMin\n\nMedian\n\nMax\n\nLowest place\n\nHighest place\n\nPoints\n\nTerrain\n\n55\n\n55\n\n65\n\nnear Turkey Creek\n\nnear Cibecue / Dishchiiʼ Bikoh\n\n194\n\nVegetation & fuels\n\n20\n\n75.4\n\n80\n\nWinslow\n\nSnowflake\n\n197\n\nHazard zone\n\n10\n\n38\n\n94.3\n\nnear Holbrook\n\nnear Lake of the Woods\n\n197\n\nFire history\n\n5\n\n5\n\n95\n\nnear Turkey Creek\n\nHeber–Overgaard, Arizona\n\n197\n\nComposite\n\n21.2\n\n47.5\n\n78.2\n\nSnowflake\n\nHeber–Overgaard, Arizona\n\n197\n\nIndependently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at **0.45%** (90th percentile cell: **1.54%**), with a mean conditional flame length of **5.88 ft**. **100%** of the 32,287 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.\n\nSource: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).\n\nCAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at **197** of the 197 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas, and most of this county is state or federal land. At **172** of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead; at the remaining 25 the hazard weight is renormalised away rather than scored as low.\n\n197 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 90%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.\n\nFor a property\n\n## What a county range means for _one address_\n\nFor individual properties, expect a mixed pattern rather than one single county number. Only 4 scored points fell in the Very High tier, and 2 fell in Low, with most locations between those ends.\n\nA countywide fire-weather score was not measured at all for Navajo County.\n\nA separate U.S. Forest Service wildfire model reports a mean annual burn probability of 0.45%, with a 90th-percentile cell at 1.54%. It also indicates that 99.5% of the county is in places that can burn.\n\nAcross 197 sampled points in Navajo County, the score runs from 21.2 to 78.2 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers. A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.\n\nFind out where your Navajo County parcel sits\n\nSlope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.\n\nFree to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan\n\nCoverage\n\n## ZIP codes we cover in Navajo County\n\nEvery one of the 38 ZIP areas that touch Navajo County — we run address-level reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and **not** a score for any property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.\n\n**High** 13 ZIPs\n\n-   [85923 Heber–Overgaard, Arizona72](/wildfire-risk/zip/85923/)\n-   [85902 Wagon Wheel70](/wildfire-risk/zip/85902/)\n-   [85911 Cibecue / Dishchiiʼ Bikoh64](/wildfire-risk/zip/85911/)\n-   [85933 Heber–Overgaard, Arizona63](/wildfire-risk/zip/85933/)\n-   [86030 Hotevilla62](/wildfire-risk/zip/86030/)\n-   [85928 Heber–Overgaard, Arizona62](/wildfire-risk/zip/85928/)\n-   [85930 Hondah60](/wildfire-risk/zip/85930/)\n-   [85941 Rainbow City59](/wildfire-risk/zip/85941/)\n-   [85934 Show Low59](/wildfire-risk/zip/85934/)\n-   [85901 Show Low56](/wildfire-risk/zip/85901/)\n-   [85935 Pinetop Country Club54](/wildfire-risk/zip/85935/)\n-   [86520 Whippoorwill Springs52](/wildfire-risk/zip/86520/)\n-   [84536 Oljato-Monument Valley50](/wildfire-risk/zip/84536/)\n\n**Moderate** 17 ZIPs\n\n-   [86039 Hard Rock / Tsé Dildǫ́ʼí50](/wildfire-risk/zip/86039/)\n-   [86042 Polacca49](/wildfire-risk/zip/86042/)\n-   [86047 Winslow49](/wildfire-risk/zip/86047/)\n-   [86032 Joseph City48](/wildfire-risk/zip/86032/)\n-   [86034 Jeddito47](/wildfire-risk/zip/86034/)\n-   [86043 Shungopavi47](/wildfire-risk/zip/86043/)\n-   [86505 Greasewood47](/wildfire-risk/zip/86505/)\n-   [86025 Holbrook46](/wildfire-risk/zip/86025/)\n-   [86044 Shonto45](/wildfire-risk/zip/86044/)\n-   [86510 Forest Lake / Tsinyiʼ Beʼekʼid45](/wildfire-risk/zip/86510/)\n-   [86031 Indian Wells44](/wildfire-risk/zip/86031/)\n-   [85937 Snowflake44](/wildfire-risk/zip/85937/)\n-   [85929 Pinetop-Lakeside43](/wildfire-risk/zip/85929/)\n-   [86033 Kayenta42](/wildfire-risk/zip/86033/)\n-   [86054 Shonto41](/wildfire-risk/zip/86054/)\n-   [86503 Black Mesa / Kitsʼiilí39](/wildfire-risk/zip/86503/)\n-   [85912 Taylor39](/wildfire-risk/zip/85912/)\n\n**No sampled point inside** 8 ZIPs\n\n[84531 Oljato-Monument Valley](/wildfire-risk/zip/84531/) · [85924 Snowflake](/wildfire-risk/zip/85924/) · [85926 Turkey Creek](/wildfire-risk/zip/85926/) · [85939 Taylor](/wildfire-risk/zip/85939/) · [85942 Holbrook](/wildfire-risk/zip/85942/) · [86028 Holbrook](/wildfire-risk/zip/86028/) · [86029 Holbrook](/wildfire-risk/zip/86029/) · [86502](/wildfire-risk/zip/86502/)\n\nGrouped from 30 of 38 ZIP areas — the rest had no sample point fall inside them. The community shown is the nearest mapped place to the ZIP's centre.\n\nZIP areas are Census 2020 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas intersecting the county boundary.\n\nWhere to go next\n\n## Navajo County wildfire risk _in context_\n\n[Arizona wildfire risk The statewide picture and every county page we publish](/wildfire-risk/arizona/) [Wildfire risk by state Every state and county we cover](/wildfire-risk/) [How Satelife calculates wildfire risk Data sources, layers, score composition, honest limits](/wildfire-risk/methodology/) [Create a wildfire evacuation plan Zones, egress routes, refuge areas](/wildfire-evacuation-plan/) [Run a report for a Navajo County address PDF + score + mitigation plan](/#cta)\n\nFAQ\n\n## Frequently asked questions about _Navajo County wildfire risk_\n\nHow much of Navajo County has burned since 1984?\n\n8% of the county has burned since 1984, totaling 510,434 acres.\n\nWhat is the largest fire listed for this county?\n\nRodeo-Chediski (2002) is the largest listed fire, at 460,563 acres.\n\nWhat is the most recent large fire listed?\n\nWyrick (2021) is the most recent large fire listed, at 7,593 acres.\n\nIs fire weather included in these county scores?\n\nNo. A countywide fire-weather score was not measured for Navajo County. The page does include a separate U.S. Forest Service burn-probability estimate, which is different from fire weather.\n\nThis page is generated from a Navajo County data pack assembled on 2026-09-05 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's underwriting judgement. Data versions: fema\\_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc\\_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.\n\n## What does _your parcel_ look like, layer by layer?\n\nA county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.\n\n[Start with your address →](/#cta)\n\n[![PRR](/images/prr.png)](/ficha-de-website-voucher-satelife.pdf)\n\n© 2024–2026 Satelife, Lda. All rights reserved.\n\nSatelife reports are for informational purposes only and do not constitute insurance, financial, or legal advice."
}