--- title: "Wildfire Risk in Coconino County, Arizona 2026 | Satelife" description: "Wildfire risk in Coconino County spans a wide range across the places we scored. The overall scores run from 24.4 in Page to 82.4 near Fort Valley, with a county midpoint of 50.8." image: "https://satelife.ai/images/wildfire-risk/arizona/coconino-county/generated/coconino-county-locator.webp" canonical: "https://satelife.ai/wildfire-risk/arizona/coconino-county/" --- [Home](/)›[Wildfire Risk](/wildfire-risk/)›[Arizona](/wildfire-risk/arizona/)›Coconino County Coconino County, Arizona # Wildfire risk in Coconino County: _where it is highest_, and why Wildfire risk in Coconino County spans a wide range across the places we scored. The overall scores run from 24.4 in Page to 82.4 near Fort Valley, with a county midpoint of 50.8. [Score my Coconino County address →](#score-my-address) [How risky is this county? ↓](#risk-at-a-glance) Before 20002000s2010s2020sCommunity Coconino County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail. At a glance ## Half of Coconino County scores _High_ or worse We scored 183 points across Coconino County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 11% of them come out Very High, while 1% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you. 11% 39% 49% **Very High** 11% · 21 of 183 points **High** 39% · 72 of 183 points **Moderate** 49% · 89 of 183 points **Low** 1% · 1 of 183 points Safest end we measured 24.4 near Page · Low Middle of the county 50.8 High — half of Coconino County is above this Most exposed end we measured 82.4 near Fort Valley · Very High ### And the federal models agree it is a fire county Relatively High FEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 99.4 / 100 $28.5M / yr FEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively High 0.58% USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 2.02% 6 ft USFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 99% of the county carries burnable fuel FEMA NRI also rates Coconino County: all-hazards risk Relatively Moderate · social vulnerability Relatively Moderate · community resilience Relatively Moderate · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0112. Sources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it. What does your Coconino County address score? A county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it. Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan Local context ## What the data says about _Coconino County_ Most scored points fall in the Moderate tier (89 points), followed by High (72 points). FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Coconino County’s wildfire risk as Relatively High for the county as a whole. FEMA also rates the county’s expected annual loss from wildfire as Relatively High, while its all-hazards risk is Relatively Moderate. Those are county-wide FEMA ratings, not neighborhood-level ratings. Fire record ## Where the fires _actually were_ The largest fire listed for Coconino County is Dragon Bravo (2025), at 145,504 acres. The most recent large fire is Pocket (2026), at 27,393 acres. That is the most recent large fire in this county record. Since 1984, there have been 965 recorded fire perimeters in the county. Over that period, 13.6% of the county has burned. ![Dragon Bravo Fire (2025) in Coconino County, Arizona - Lightning ignited two wildland fires on the Colorado Plateau near the Grand Canyon in July 2025 that grew to become large and disr](/images/wildfire-risk/arizona/coconino-county/photos/fires-rage-in-arizona-154541-pho-20250711-lrg.webp) **Dragon Bravo Fire, 2025** — Coconino County. Photo: Dragon Bravo fire photo by M. Quinn and courtesy of the National Park Service. Story by Adam Voiland. · [Public domain](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Fires_Rage_in_Arizona_\(154541_-_pho_20250711_lrg\).jpg) ![Rafael Fire (2021) in Coconino County, Arizona - The Rafael Fire burning near Perkinsville, Arizona](/images/wildfire-risk/arizona/coconino-county/photos/rafael-fire-arizona.webp) **Rafael Fire, 2021** — Coconino County. Photo: InciWeb · [Public domain](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Rafael_Fire,_Arizona.jpg) 965 mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984 1,615,296 acres inside those perimeters since 1984 13.6% of the county's area, as a share of 48,099.4 km² Pocket 2026 most recent large fire on record Before 20002000s2010s2020s Fire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size. Named fires on record - **Dragon Bravo Fire**2025145,504 acres - **Rafael Fire**202178,064 acres - **Mangum Fire**202071,448 acres - **White Sage Fire**202558,985 acres - **Pocket Fire**202627,393 acres - **Jack Fire**201633,761 acres - **Pipeline Fire**202226,532 acres - **Warm Fire**200639,112 acres Perimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Dragon Bravo 2025. Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records. Communities ## Where in the county you are _matters most_ Among named communities, some of the higher overall wildfire risk scores are in Munds Park (78.9), Fort Valley (76.9), and Doney Park (73.0). In other communities, scores are lower, including Fredonia (31.2) and LeChee (37.5). Page is 48.0, closer to the county’s middle range. Flagstaff is 55.9 and Williams is 57.2, while Sedona is higher at 66.2. So even among larger, familiar places, wildfire risk levels differ meaningfully. Munds Park village · 1,250 people 78.9 _Very High_ Fort Valley village · 1,682 people 76.9 _Very High_ Bellemont village · 1,167 people 76.9 _Very High_ Doney Park village · 5,910 people 73 _High_ Timberline-Fernwood village · 2,572 people 72.6 _High_ Tolani Lake village 72.6 _High_ Tusayan village · 603 people 69.5 _High_ Parks village · 1,382 people 68.2 _High_ Bird Springs village 66.7 _High_ Kachina Village village · 2,664 people 66.4 _High_ 23 more communities in Coconino County Sedona town · 9,684 people 66.2 _High_ Williams town · 3,202 people 57.2 _High_ Mountain View Ranches village · 1,508 people 56.6 _High_ Grand Canyon Village village · 1,784 people 56 _High_ Flagstaff city · 76,831 people 55.9 _High_ Mountainaire village · 1,014 people 52.9 _High_ Cow Springs village 50.8 _High_ Moenkopi village · 771 people 50 _High_ Tuba City town · 8,072 people 48.7 _Moderate_ Kaibeto village · 1,963 people 48.7 _Moderate_ Page city · 7,422 people 48 _Moderate_ Coal Mine Mesa / Łeejin Haagééd village 47.2 _Moderate_ Valle village · 759 people 46.3 _Moderate_ Cameron village · 734 people 46 _Moderate_ Inscription House village 45.7 _Moderate_ Red Lake village · 1,680 people 44 _Moderate_ Tonalea village 43.7 _Moderate_ Supai village 42.6 _Moderate_ Greenehaven village · 381 people 42.3 _Moderate_ Kaibab Estates West village · 1,034 people 41 _Moderate_ LeChee village · 1,443 people 37.5 _Moderate_ Bitter Springs village 36.9 _Moderate_ Fredonia village · 1,323 people 31.2 _Moderate_ The score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the community's own record where the source carries one. Terrain & fuels ## Terrain, vegetation and _fuels_ Terrain scores are relatively tight in this county, with a midpoint of 55.0 and a high of 65.0 near Bird Springs. This suggests terrain contributes to risk in many areas rather than only one corner of the county. Vegetation and fuels vary more. The midpoint is 74.2, with a low of 20.0 in Flagstaff and a high of 80.0 in unincorporated Coconino County. Fire weather was not measured for this county in the places we scored. 55 median terrain score (max 65 near Bird Springs) 74.2 median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near unincorporated Coconino County) Fire weather ## Fire weather across _Coconino County_ Fire weather was not measured at the sampled points in Coconino County. The other four indicators on this page were, and the bars below show what they found. What drives it ## Which part of the risk _moves_, and which doesn't Risk is not uniform across Coconino County. At the low end of the places we scored is Page at 24.4, while the high end reaches 82.4 near Fort Valley. By tier counts, Moderate is the most common level (89 points), and only 1 point is in Low. Very High appears too, with 21 points, so higher-exposure pockets are part of the county pattern. Each bar is what one part of the score covers across Coconino County, on the same 0–100 scale. A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same almost everywhere. Terrain 55–65 highest near Bird Springs Vegetation & fuels 20–80 highest near unincorporated Coconino County Hazard zone 10–97.5 highest near unincorporated Coconino County Fire history 5–95 highest near Munds Park Overall score 24.4–82.4 highest near Fort Valley The tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50, Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them. Show every number behind these bars Layer Min Median Max Lowest place Highest place Points Terrain 55 55 65 unincorporated Coconino County near Bird Springs 183 Vegetation & fuels 20 74.2 80 Flagstaff unincorporated Coconino County 183 Hazard zone 10 36.8 97.5 near Bird Springs unincorporated Coconino County 183 Fire history 5 5 95 unincorporated Coconino County Munds Park 183 Composite 24.4 50.8 82.4 Page near Fort Valley 183 Independently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at **0.58%** (90th percentile cell: **2.02%**), with a mean conditional flame length of **6 ft**. **99%** of the 27,001 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all. Source: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent). CAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at **183** of the 183 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas, and most of this county is state or federal land. At **140** of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead; at the remaining 43 the hazard weight is renormalised away rather than scored as low. 183 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 90%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states. For a property ## What a county range means for _one address_ Hazard-zone scores cover a broad span in Coconino County, from 10.0 near Bird Springs up to 97.5 in unincorporated Coconino County. The county midpoint is 36.8. Fire-history scores are low in many places, with both the minimum and midpoint at 5.0, but they rise to 95.0 in Munds Park. That pattern shows past-burn exposure is concentrated in specific locations. In the U.S. Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities model, mean annual burn probability is 0.58%, and the 90th-percentile cell is 2.02%. Also, 99.3% of the county is in areas that can burn. That same model reports a mean conditional flame length of 6.0 feet, which is another county-level indicator of potential fire behavior where burning occurs. Across 183 sampled points in Coconino County, the score runs from 24.4 to 82.4 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers. A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at. Find out where your Coconino County parcel sits Slope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county. Free to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan Coverage ## ZIP codes we cover in Coconino County Every one of the 41 ZIP areas that touch Coconino County — we run address-level reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and **not** a score for any property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers. **Very High** 4 ZIPs - [86017 Munds Park79](/wildfire-risk/zip/86017/) - [86001 Fort Valley77](/wildfire-risk/zip/86001/) - [86015 Bellemont77](/wildfire-risk/zip/86015/) - [86052 Grand Canyon Village76](/wildfire-risk/zip/86052/) **High** 9 ZIPs - [85931 73](/wildfire-risk/zip/85931/) - [86004 Timberline-Fernwood71](/wildfire-risk/zip/86004/) - [86018 Parks67](/wildfire-risk/zip/86018/) - [86336 Sedona66](/wildfire-risk/zip/86336/) - [86047 Bird Springs64](/wildfire-risk/zip/86047/) - [86005 Mountainaire60](/wildfire-risk/zip/86005/) - [86024 60](/wildfire-risk/zip/86024/) - [86023 Grand Canyon Village57](/wildfire-risk/zip/86023/) - [86022 Fredonia53](/wildfire-risk/zip/86022/) **Moderate** 12 ZIPs - [86035 Tolani Lake49](/wildfire-risk/zip/86035/) - [86053 Kaibeto49](/wildfire-risk/zip/86053/) - [86040 LeChee49](/wildfire-risk/zip/86040/) - [86045 Moenkopi49](/wildfire-risk/zip/86045/) - [86046 Red Lake47](/wildfire-risk/zip/86046/) - [86044 Inscription House46](/wildfire-risk/zip/86044/) - [86435 Supai46](/wildfire-risk/zip/86435/) - [86337 46](/wildfire-risk/zip/86337/) - [86320 Kaibab Estates West42](/wildfire-risk/zip/86320/) - [86036 Bitter Springs41](/wildfire-risk/zip/86036/) - [86020 Cameron40](/wildfire-risk/zip/86020/) - [86016 Cameron38](/wildfire-risk/zip/86016/) **No sampled point inside** 16 ZIPs [84741 Fredonia](/wildfire-risk/zip/84741/) · [85541](/wildfire-risk/zip/85541/) · [85544](/wildfire-risk/zip/85544/) · [85554](/wildfire-risk/zip/85554/) · [86003 Mountain View Ranches](/wildfire-risk/zip/86003/) · [86011 Flagstaff](/wildfire-risk/zip/86011/) · [86030 Coal Mine Mesa / Łeejin Haagééd](/wildfire-risk/zip/86030/) · [86038 Munds Park](/wildfire-risk/zip/86038/) · [86039](/wildfire-risk/zip/86039/) · [86054 Inscription House](/wildfire-risk/zip/86054/) · [86322](/wildfire-risk/zip/86322/) · [86324 Sedona](/wildfire-risk/zip/86324/) · [86335 Sedona](/wildfire-risk/zip/86335/) · [86351 Sedona](/wildfire-risk/zip/86351/) · [86434](/wildfire-risk/zip/86434/) · [86510](/wildfire-risk/zip/86510/) Grouped from 25 of 41 ZIP areas — the rest had no sample point fall inside them. The community shown is the nearest mapped place to the ZIP's centre. ZIP areas are Census 2020 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas intersecting the county boundary. Where to go next ## Coconino County wildfire risk _in context_ [Arizona wildfire risk The statewide picture and every county page we publish](/wildfire-risk/arizona/) [Wildfire risk by state Every state and county we cover](/wildfire-risk/) [How Satelife calculates wildfire risk Data sources, layers, score composition, honest limits](/wildfire-risk/methodology/) [Create a wildfire evacuation plan Zones, egress routes, refuge areas](/wildfire-evacuation-plan/) [Run a report for a Coconino County address PDF + score + mitigation plan](/#cta) FAQ ## Frequently asked questions about _Coconino County wildfire risk_ Does a higher score mean higher wildfire risk? Yes. Scores run from 0 to 100, and higher scores mean greater wildfire exposure. What does FEMA say about wildfire risk in Coconino County? FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Coconino County’s wildfire risk as Relatively High, and its expected annual loss from wildfire as Relatively High. How much of Coconino County has burned since 1984? 13.6% of the county has burned since 1984. What are the key recent fires to know in this county? The largest listed fire is Dragon Bravo (2025) at 145,504 acres. The most recent large fire is Pocket (2026) at 27,393 acres. Is fire weather included here? No. Fire weather was not measured for this county in the places we scored. This page is generated from a Coconino County data pack assembled on 2026-09-05 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's underwriting judgement. Data versions: fema\_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc\_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020. ## What does _your parcel_ look like, layer by layer? A county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan. [Start with your address →](/#cta) [![PRR](/images/prr.png)](/ficha-de-website-voucher-satelife.pdf) © 2024–2026 Satelife, Lda. All rights reserved. Satelife reports are for informational purposes only and do not constitute insurance, financial, or legal advice.