{
  "title": "Wildfire Risk in Coconino County, Arizona 2026 | Satelife",
  "description": "Wildfire risk in Coconino County spans a wide range across the places we scored. The overall scores run from 24.4 in Page to 82.4 near Fort Valley, with a county midpoint of 50.8.",
  "image": "https://satelife.ai/images/wildfire-risk/arizona/coconino-county/generated/coconino-county-locator.webp",
  "canonical": "https://satelife.ai/wildfire-risk/arizona/coconino-county/",
  "content": "[Home](/)›[Wildfire Risk](/wildfire-risk/)›[Arizona](/wildfire-risk/arizona/)›Coconino County\n\nCoconino County, Arizona\n\n# Wildfire risk in Coconino County: _where it is highest_, and why\n\nWildfire risk in Coconino County spans a wide range across the places we scored. The overall scores run from 24.4 in Page to 82.4 near Fort Valley, with a county midpoint of 50.8.\n\n[Score my Coconino County address →](#score-my-address) [How risky is this county? ↓](#risk-at-a-glance)\n\nBefore 20002000s2010s2020sCommunity\n\nCoconino County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.\n\nAt a glance\n\n## Half of Coconino County scores _High_ or worse\n\nWe scored 183 points across Coconino County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 11% of them come out Very High, while 1% are Low. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.\n\n11%\n\n39%\n\n49%\n\n**Very High** 11% · 21 of 183 points **High** 39% · 72 of 183 points **Moderate** 49% · 89 of 183 points **Low** 1% · 1 of 183 points\n\nSafest end we measured 24.4 near Page · Low\n\nMiddle of the county 50.8 High — half of Coconino County is above this\n\nMost exposed end we measured 82.4 near Fort Valley · Very High\n\n### And the federal models agree it is a fire county\n\nRelatively High FEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 99.4 / 100\n\n$28.5M / yr FEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively High\n\n0.58% USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 2.02%\n\n6 ft USFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 99% of the county carries burnable fuel\n\nFEMA NRI also rates Coconino County: all-hazards risk Relatively Moderate · social vulnerability Relatively Moderate · community resilience Relatively Moderate · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0112.\n\nSources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.\n\nWhat does your Coconino County address score?\n\nA county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.\n\nFree to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan\n\nLocal context\n\n## What the data says about _Coconino County_\n\nMost scored points fall in the Moderate tier (89 points), followed by High (72 points). FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Coconino County’s wildfire risk as Relatively High for the county as a whole.\n\nFEMA also rates the county’s expected annual loss from wildfire as Relatively High, while its all-hazards risk is Relatively Moderate. Those are county-wide FEMA ratings, not neighborhood-level ratings.\n\nFire record\n\n## Where the fires _actually were_\n\nThe largest fire listed for Coconino County is Dragon Bravo (2025), at 145,504 acres.\n\nThe most recent large fire is Pocket (2026), at 27,393 acres. That is the most recent large fire in this county record.\n\nSince 1984, there have been 965 recorded fire perimeters in the county. Over that period, 13.6% of the county has burned.\n\n![Dragon Bravo Fire (2025) in Coconino County, Arizona - Lightning ignited two wildland fires on the Colorado Plateau near the Grand Canyon in July 2025 that grew to become large and disr](/images/wildfire-risk/arizona/coconino-county/photos/fires-rage-in-arizona-154541-pho-20250711-lrg.webp)\n\n**Dragon Bravo Fire, 2025** — Coconino County. Photo: Dragon Bravo fire photo by M. Quinn and courtesy of the National Park Service. Story by Adam Voiland. · [Public domain](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Fires_Rage_in_Arizona_\\(154541_-_pho_20250711_lrg\\).jpg)\n\n![Rafael Fire (2021) in Coconino County, Arizona - The Rafael Fire burning near Perkinsville, Arizona](/images/wildfire-risk/arizona/coconino-county/photos/rafael-fire-arizona.webp)\n\n**Rafael Fire, 2021** — Coconino County. Photo: InciWeb · [Public domain](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Rafael_Fire,_Arizona.jpg)\n\n965 mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984\n\n1,615,296 acres inside those perimeters since 1984\n\n13.6% of the county's area, as a share of 48,099.4 km²\n\nPocket 2026 most recent large fire on record\n\nBefore 20002000s2010s2020s \n\nFire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size.\n\nNamed fires on record\n\n-   **Dragon Bravo Fire**2025145,504 acres\n-   **Rafael Fire**202178,064 acres\n-   **Mangum Fire**202071,448 acres\n-   **White Sage Fire**202558,985 acres\n-   **Pocket Fire**202627,393 acres\n-   **Jack Fire**201633,761 acres\n-   **Pipeline Fire**202226,532 acres\n-   **Warm Fire**200639,112 acres\n\nPerimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Dragon Bravo 2025. Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.\n\nCommunities\n\n## Where in the county you are _matters most_\n\nAmong named communities, some of the higher overall wildfire risk scores are in Munds Park (78.9), Fort Valley (76.9), and Doney Park (73.0).\n\nIn other communities, scores are lower, including Fredonia (31.2) and LeChee (37.5). Page is 48.0, closer to the county’s middle range.\n\nFlagstaff is 55.9 and Williams is 57.2, while Sedona is higher at 66.2. So even among larger, familiar places, wildfire risk levels differ meaningfully.\n\nMunds Park village · 1,250 people\n\n78.9 _Very High_\n\nFort Valley village · 1,682 people\n\n76.9 _Very High_\n\nBellemont village · 1,167 people\n\n76.9 _Very High_\n\nDoney Park village · 5,910 people\n\n73 _High_\n\nTimberline-Fernwood village · 2,572 people\n\n72.6 _High_\n\nTolani Lake village\n\n72.6 _High_\n\nTusayan village · 603 people\n\n69.5 _High_\n\nParks village · 1,382 people\n\n68.2 _High_\n\nBird Springs village\n\n66.7 _High_\n\nKachina Village village · 2,664 people\n\n66.4 _High_\n\n23 more communities in Coconino County\n\nSedona town · 9,684 people\n\n66.2 _High_\n\nWilliams town · 3,202 people\n\n57.2 _High_\n\nMountain View Ranches village · 1,508 people\n\n56.6 _High_\n\nGrand Canyon Village village · 1,784 people\n\n56 _High_\n\nFlagstaff city · 76,831 people\n\n55.9 _High_\n\nMountainaire village · 1,014 people\n\n52.9 _High_\n\nCow Springs village\n\n50.8 _High_\n\nMoenkopi village · 771 people\n\n50 _High_\n\nTuba City town · 8,072 people\n\n48.7 _Moderate_\n\nKaibeto village · 1,963 people\n\n48.7 _Moderate_\n\nPage city · 7,422 people\n\n48 _Moderate_\n\nCoal Mine Mesa / Łeejin Haagééd village\n\n47.2 _Moderate_\n\nValle village · 759 people\n\n46.3 _Moderate_\n\nCameron village · 734 people\n\n46 _Moderate_\n\nInscription House village\n\n45.7 _Moderate_\n\nRed Lake village · 1,680 people\n\n44 _Moderate_\n\nTonalea village\n\n43.7 _Moderate_\n\nSupai village\n\n42.6 _Moderate_\n\nGreenehaven village · 381 people\n\n42.3 _Moderate_\n\nKaibab Estates West village · 1,034 people\n\n41 _Moderate_\n\nLeChee village · 1,443 people\n\n37.5 _Moderate_\n\nBitter Springs village\n\n36.9 _Moderate_\n\nFredonia village · 1,323 people\n\n31.2 _Moderate_\n\nThe score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the community's own record where the source carries one.\n\nTerrain & fuels\n\n## Terrain, vegetation and _fuels_\n\nTerrain scores are relatively tight in this county, with a midpoint of 55.0 and a high of 65.0 near Bird Springs. This suggests terrain contributes to risk in many areas rather than only one corner of the county.\n\nVegetation and fuels vary more. The midpoint is 74.2, with a low of 20.0 in Flagstaff and a high of 80.0 in unincorporated Coconino County.\n\nFire weather was not measured for this county in the places we scored.\n\n55 median terrain score (max 65 near Bird Springs)\n\n74.2 median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near unincorporated Coconino County)\n\nFire weather\n\n## Fire weather across _Coconino County_\n\nFire weather was not measured at the sampled points in Coconino County. The other four indicators on this page were, and the bars below show what they found.\n\nWhat drives it\n\n## Which part of the risk _moves_, and which doesn't\n\nRisk is not uniform across Coconino County. At the low end of the places we scored is Page at 24.4, while the high end reaches 82.4 near Fort Valley.\n\nBy tier counts, Moderate is the most common level (89 points), and only 1 point is in Low. Very High appears too, with 21 points, so higher-exposure pockets are part of the county pattern.\n\nEach bar is what one part of the score covers across Coconino County, on the same 0–100 scale. A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same almost everywhere.\n\nTerrain\n\n55–65 highest near Bird Springs\n\nVegetation & fuels\n\n20–80 highest near unincorporated Coconino County\n\nHazard zone\n\n10–97.5 highest near unincorporated Coconino County\n\nFire history\n\n5–95 highest near Munds Park\n\nOverall score\n\n24.4–82.4 highest near Fort Valley\n\nThe tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50, Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.\n\nShow every number behind these bars\n\nLayer\n\nMin\n\nMedian\n\nMax\n\nLowest place\n\nHighest place\n\nPoints\n\nTerrain\n\n55\n\n55\n\n65\n\nunincorporated Coconino County\n\nnear Bird Springs\n\n183\n\nVegetation & fuels\n\n20\n\n74.2\n\n80\n\nFlagstaff\n\nunincorporated Coconino County\n\n183\n\nHazard zone\n\n10\n\n36.8\n\n97.5\n\nnear Bird Springs\n\nunincorporated Coconino County\n\n183\n\nFire history\n\n5\n\n5\n\n95\n\nunincorporated Coconino County\n\nMunds Park\n\n183\n\nComposite\n\n24.4\n\n50.8\n\n82.4\n\nPage\n\nnear Fort Valley\n\n183\n\nIndependently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at **0.58%** (90th percentile cell: **2.02%**), with a mean conditional flame length of **6 ft**. **99%** of the 27,001 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.\n\nSource: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).\n\nCAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at **183** of the 183 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas, and most of this county is state or federal land. At **140** of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead; at the remaining 43 the hazard weight is renormalised away rather than scored as low.\n\n183 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 90%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.\n\nFor a property\n\n## What a county range means for _one address_\n\nHazard-zone scores cover a broad span in Coconino County, from 10.0 near Bird Springs up to 97.5 in unincorporated Coconino County. The county midpoint is 36.8.\n\nFire-history scores are low in many places, with both the minimum and midpoint at 5.0, but they rise to 95.0 in Munds Park. That pattern shows past-burn exposure is concentrated in specific locations.\n\nIn the U.S. Forest Service Wildfire Risk to Communities model, mean annual burn probability is 0.58%, and the 90th-percentile cell is 2.02%. Also, 99.3% of the county is in areas that can burn.\n\nThat same model reports a mean conditional flame length of 6.0 feet, which is another county-level indicator of potential fire behavior where burning occurs.\n\nAcross 183 sampled points in Coconino County, the score runs from 24.4 to 82.4 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers. A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.\n\nFind out where your Coconino County parcel sits\n\nSlope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.\n\nFree to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan\n\nCoverage\n\n## ZIP codes we cover in Coconino County\n\nEvery one of the 41 ZIP areas that touch Coconino County — we run address-level reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and **not** a score for any property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.\n\n**Very High** 4 ZIPs\n\n-   [86017 Munds Park79](/wildfire-risk/zip/86017/)\n-   [86001 Fort Valley77](/wildfire-risk/zip/86001/)\n-   [86015 Bellemont77](/wildfire-risk/zip/86015/)\n-   [86052 Grand Canyon Village76](/wildfire-risk/zip/86052/)\n\n**High** 9 ZIPs\n\n-   [85931 73](/wildfire-risk/zip/85931/)\n-   [86004 Timberline-Fernwood71](/wildfire-risk/zip/86004/)\n-   [86018 Parks67](/wildfire-risk/zip/86018/)\n-   [86336 Sedona66](/wildfire-risk/zip/86336/)\n-   [86047 Bird Springs64](/wildfire-risk/zip/86047/)\n-   [86005 Mountainaire60](/wildfire-risk/zip/86005/)\n-   [86024 60](/wildfire-risk/zip/86024/)\n-   [86023 Grand Canyon Village57](/wildfire-risk/zip/86023/)\n-   [86022 Fredonia53](/wildfire-risk/zip/86022/)\n\n**Moderate** 12 ZIPs\n\n-   [86035 Tolani Lake49](/wildfire-risk/zip/86035/)\n-   [86053 Kaibeto49](/wildfire-risk/zip/86053/)\n-   [86040 LeChee49](/wildfire-risk/zip/86040/)\n-   [86045 Moenkopi49](/wildfire-risk/zip/86045/)\n-   [86046 Red Lake47](/wildfire-risk/zip/86046/)\n-   [86044 Inscription House46](/wildfire-risk/zip/86044/)\n-   [86435 Supai46](/wildfire-risk/zip/86435/)\n-   [86337 46](/wildfire-risk/zip/86337/)\n-   [86320 Kaibab Estates West42](/wildfire-risk/zip/86320/)\n-   [86036 Bitter Springs41](/wildfire-risk/zip/86036/)\n-   [86020 Cameron40](/wildfire-risk/zip/86020/)\n-   [86016 Cameron38](/wildfire-risk/zip/86016/)\n\n**No sampled point inside** 16 ZIPs\n\n[84741 Fredonia](/wildfire-risk/zip/84741/) · [85541](/wildfire-risk/zip/85541/) · [85544](/wildfire-risk/zip/85544/) · [85554](/wildfire-risk/zip/85554/) · [86003 Mountain View Ranches](/wildfire-risk/zip/86003/) · [86011 Flagstaff](/wildfire-risk/zip/86011/) · [86030 Coal Mine Mesa / Łeejin Haagééd](/wildfire-risk/zip/86030/) · [86038 Munds Park](/wildfire-risk/zip/86038/) · [86039](/wildfire-risk/zip/86039/) · [86054 Inscription House](/wildfire-risk/zip/86054/) · [86322](/wildfire-risk/zip/86322/) · [86324 Sedona](/wildfire-risk/zip/86324/) · [86335 Sedona](/wildfire-risk/zip/86335/) · [86351 Sedona](/wildfire-risk/zip/86351/) · [86434](/wildfire-risk/zip/86434/) · [86510](/wildfire-risk/zip/86510/)\n\nGrouped from 25 of 41 ZIP areas — the rest had no sample point fall inside them. The community shown is the nearest mapped place to the ZIP's centre.\n\nZIP areas are Census 2020 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas intersecting the county boundary.\n\nWhere to go next\n\n## Coconino County wildfire risk _in context_\n\n[Arizona wildfire risk The statewide picture and every county page we publish](/wildfire-risk/arizona/) [Wildfire risk by state Every state and county we cover](/wildfire-risk/) [How Satelife calculates wildfire risk Data sources, layers, score composition, honest limits](/wildfire-risk/methodology/) [Create a wildfire evacuation plan Zones, egress routes, refuge areas](/wildfire-evacuation-plan/) [Run a report for a Coconino County address PDF + score + mitigation plan](/#cta)\n\nFAQ\n\n## Frequently asked questions about _Coconino County wildfire risk_\n\nDoes a higher score mean higher wildfire risk?\n\nYes. Scores run from 0 to 100, and higher scores mean greater wildfire exposure.\n\nWhat does FEMA say about wildfire risk in Coconino County?\n\nFEMA’s National Risk Index rates Coconino County’s wildfire risk as Relatively High, and its expected annual loss from wildfire as Relatively High.\n\nHow much of Coconino County has burned since 1984?\n\n13.6% of the county has burned since 1984.\n\nWhat are the key recent fires to know in this county?\n\nThe largest listed fire is Dragon Bravo (2025) at 145,504 acres. The most recent large fire is Pocket (2026) at 27,393 acres.\n\nIs fire weather included here?\n\nNo. Fire weather was not measured for this county in the places we scored.\n\nThis page is generated from a Coconino County data pack assembled on 2026-09-05 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's underwriting judgement. Data versions: fema\\_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc\\_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.\n\n## What does _your parcel_ look like, layer by layer?\n\nA county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.\n\n[Start with your address →](/#cta)\n\n[![PRR](/images/prr.png)](/ficha-de-website-voucher-satelife.pdf)\n\n© 2024–2026 Satelife, Lda. All rights reserved.\n\nSatelife reports are for informational purposes only and do not constitute insurance, financial, or legal advice."
}