{
  "title": "Wildfire Risk in Cochise County, Arizona 2026 | Satelife",
  "description": "Wildfire risk in Cochise County spans a wide range across the places we scored. The lowest overall score is 26.2 in Douglas, while the highest is 84.3 in Sierra Vista Estates. The middle point is 55.2, so many locations sit in a moderate-to-high band rather than at either extreme.",
  "image": "https://satelife.ai/images/wildfire-risk/arizona/cochise-county/generated/cochise-county-locator.webp",
  "canonical": "https://satelife.ai/wildfire-risk/arizona/cochise-county/",
  "content": "[Home](/)›[Wildfire Risk](/wildfire-risk/)›[Arizona](/wildfire-risk/arizona/)›Cochise County\n\nCochise County, Arizona\n\n# Wildfire risk in Cochise County: _where it is highest_, and why\n\nWildfire risk in Cochise County spans a wide range across the places we scored. The lowest overall score is 26.2 in Douglas, while the highest is 84.3 in Sierra Vista Estates. The middle point is 55.2, so many locations sit in a moderate-to-high band rather than at either extreme.\n\n[Score my Cochise County address →](#score-my-address) [How risky is this county? ↓](#risk-at-a-glance)\n\nBefore 20002000s2010s2020sCommunity\n\nCochise County — the largest fires on record, at their perimeter centres, with the county’s main communities. Select a marker for its detail.\n\nAt a glance\n\n## Half of Cochise County scores _High_ or worse\n\nWe scored 166 points across Cochise County on the same 0–100 scale a Satelife address report uses, and they do not land in one place. 4% of them come out Very High, while 20% are Moderate. Which end your own parcel sits at is not something a county map can tell you.\n\n75%\n\n20%\n\n**Very High** 4% · 7 of 166 points **High** 75% · 125 of 166 points **Moderate** 20% · 34 of 166 points\n\nSafest end we measured 26.2 near Douglas · Moderate\n\nMiddle of the county 55.2 High — half of Cochise County is above this\n\nMost exposed end we measured 84.3 near Sierra Vista Estates · Very High\n\n### And the federal models agree it is a fire county\n\nRelatively High FEMA National Risk Index — wildfire risk rating · index score 99.2 / 100\n\n$19.4M / yr FEMA NRI — expected annual loss from wildfire · rated Relatively High\n\n1.05% USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities — mean annual burn probability · 90th-percentile cell 1.95%\n\n4.76 ft USFS WRC — mean conditional flame length · 88% of the county carries burnable fuel\n\nFEMA NRI also rates Cochise County: all-hazards risk Relatively Moderate · social vulnerability Relatively High · community resilience Very Low · annualised wildfire frequency 0.0089.\n\nSources: FEMA National Risk Index 1.20.0 (Dec 2025), county record · USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0, mean of the grid cells inside the county. Both describe the county as a whole, never an address in it.\n\nWhat does your Cochise County address score?\n\nA county range shows the spread. Your parcel sits somewhere inside it — the report says where, and what to do about it.\n\nFree to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan\n\nLocal context\n\n## What the data says about _Cochise County_\n\nMost scored locations fall in the High tier, with 125 points there. Moderate has 34 points, and Very High has 7 points. None of the scored points fell in the Low tier.\n\nFor county-wide context, FEMA’s National Risk Index rates Cochise County’s wildfire risk as \"Relatively High\" and its wildfire expected annual loss as \"Relatively High.\" In the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities product, mean annual burn probability is 1.05%, with 1.95% at the 90th-percentile cell.\n\nFire record\n\n## Where the fires _actually were_\n\nSince 1984, 742,352 acres have burned in Cochise County, and that equals 18.7% of the county. The county record also shows 273 fire perimeters over that period.\n\nThe largest fire listed is Horseshoe 2 (2011), at 222,990 acres. Another major fire in the county record is Monument (2011), at 32,074 acres.\n\nThe most recent large fire entry is listed as Unknown (9999).\n\n![Horseshoe 2 Fire (2011) in Cochise County, Arizona - This astronaut photograph illustrates the area (approximately 8,900 hectares, or 22,110 acres) and position of the Horseshoe 2 fir](/images/wildfire-risk/arizona/cochise-county/photos/horseshoe-2-fire-arizona.webp)\n\n**Horseshoe 2 Fire, 2011** — Cochise County. Photo: ISS Expedition 27 crew · [Public domain](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Horseshoe_2_Fire,_Arizona.JPG)\n\n![Monument Fire (2011) in Cochise County, Arizona - 2nd Lt. Maram Sweis, Arizona Army National Guard medical operations officer, and Benny Fate, Kayenta Hospital head of security, di](/images/wildfire-risk/arizona/cochise-county/photos/arizona-national-guard-49724557023.webp)\n\n**Monument Fire, 2011** — Cochise County. Photo: The National Guard · [Public domain](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Arizona_National_Guard_-_49724557023.jpg)\n\n273 mapped fire perimeters centred in the county since 1984\n\n742,352 acres inside those perimeters since 1984\n\n18.7% of the county's area, as a share of 16,042.3 km²\n\nUnknown 9999 most recent large fire on record\n\nBefore 20002000s2010s2020s \n\nFire perimeters coloured by decade. Select a perimeter for its name, year and size.\n\nNamed fires on record\n\n-   **Horseshoe 2 Fire**2011222,990 acres\n-   **Horseshoe2 Fire**2011222,954 acres\n-   **Monument Fire**201132,074 acres\n-   **Lizard Fire**201715,230 acres\n-   **Hog Fire**200916,750 acres\n-   **Walnut Fire**202110,660 acres\n-   **Swisshelms Fire**201710,954 acres\n-   **Rattlesnake Fire**199425,147 acres\n\nPerimeter sources: NIFC Interagency Fire Perimeter History · WFIGS Interagency Perimeters · largest on record: Horseshoe 2 2011. Perimeters are simplified for display; acreage is the figure the source records.\n\nCommunities\n\n## Where in the county you are _matters most_\n\nAmong named communities, the higher overall scores include Miracle Valley at 77.4, Huachuca City at 74.8, and Nicksville at 73.6.\n\nOn the lower end, Douglas is 38.9 and San Simon is 41.8, while Sierra Vista is closer to the county middle at 56.5. That spread shows why two towns in the same county can still face different wildfire risk conditions.\n\nMiracle Valley village\n\n77.4 _Very High_\n\nHuachuca City village · 1,626 people\n\n74.8 _High_\n\nNicksville village\n\n73.6 _High_\n\nSierra Vista Estates village\n\n69.7 _High_\n\nTombstone village · 1,571 people\n\n62 _High_\n\nBisbee town\n\n61.7 _High_\n\nBenson town\n\n60.4 _High_\n\nWillcox town · 3,769 people\n\n59 _High_\n\nSierra Vista city · 45,308 people\n\n56.5 _High_\n\nBowie village · 449 people\n\n56.4 _High_\n\n6 more communities in Cochise County\n\nMcNeal village\n\n54.2 _High_\n\nPirtleville village · 1,550 people\n\n53.8 _High_\n\nWhetstone village · 3,236 people\n\n51.7 _High_\n\nNaco village\n\n50.3 _High_\n\nSan Simon village · 165 people\n\n41.8 _Moderate_\n\nDouglas town · 16,534 people\n\n38.9 _Moderate_\n\nThe score is the median of the sampled points nearest that community — a community-scale indicator, not a score for any individual property in it. Population comes from the community's own record where the source carries one.\n\nTerrain & fuels\n\n## Terrain, vegetation and _fuels_\n\nFire weather was not measured at all in the county results shown here.\n\nWhat was measured does show terrain differences: terrain scores run from 55.0 near Nicksville to 65.0 at Naco, with the middle value at 65.0.\n\nVegetation and fuels vary more. Scores go from 20.0 in Douglas to 80.0 near Douglas, and the middle value is 73.1. In practical terms, fuels are one of the stronger contributors to why nearby places can have different wildfire risk.\n\n65 median terrain score (max 65 near Naco)\n\n73.1 median vegetation & fuels score (max 80 near Douglas)\n\nFire weather\n\n## Fire weather across _Cochise County_\n\nFire weather was not measured at the sampled points in Cochise County. The other four indicators on this page were, and the bars below show what they found.\n\nWhat drives it\n\n## Which part of the risk _moves_, and which doesn't\n\nRisk is not uniform across Cochise County. In the places scored, Douglas is at the low end with 26.2, while Sierra Vista Estates is at the high end with 84.3.\n\nHazard-zone scores also vary sharply by location, from 10.0 near Nicksville to 95.4 in Sierra Vista Estates. The middle hazard-zone value is 49.6.\n\nFire-history scores show a similar spread: 5.0 in Naco and 95.0 near Nicksville, with a middle value of 30.0.\n\nEach bar is what one part of the score covers across Cochise County, on the same 0–100 scale. A long bar is a part of the risk that depends on where you are; a short one is the same almost everywhere.\n\nTerrain\n\n55–65 highest near Naco\n\nVegetation & fuels\n\n20–80 highest near Douglas\n\nHazard zone\n\n10–95.4 highest near Sierra Vista Estates\n\nFire history\n\n5–95 highest near Nicksville\n\nOverall score\n\n26.2–84.3 highest near Sierra Vista Estates\n\nThe tick on each bar is the middle value. Tier boundaries — Moderate at 25, High at 50, Very High at 75 — are the faint lines behind them.\n\nShow every number behind these bars\n\nLayer\n\nMin\n\nMedian\n\nMax\n\nLowest place\n\nHighest place\n\nPoints\n\nTerrain\n\n55\n\n65\n\n65\n\nnear Nicksville\n\nNaco\n\n166\n\nVegetation & fuels\n\n20\n\n73.1\n\n80\n\nDouglas\n\nnear Douglas\n\n166\n\nHazard zone\n\n10\n\n49.6\n\n95.4\n\nnear Nicksville\n\nSierra Vista Estates\n\n166\n\nFire history\n\n5\n\n30\n\n95\n\nNaco\n\nnear Nicksville\n\n166\n\nComposite\n\n26.2\n\n55.2\n\n84.3\n\nDouglas\n\nSierra Vista Estates\n\n166\n\nIndependently of Satelife's layers, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities grid puts the county's mean annual burn probability at **1.05%** (90th percentile cell: **1.95%**), with a mean conditional flame length of **4.76 ft**. **88%** of the 39,806 grid cells inside the county carry burnable fuel at all.\n\nSource: USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities v2.0 (ImageServer, county extent).\n\nCAL FIRE has no mapped Fire Hazard Severity Zone at **166** of the 166 sampled points — the zones cover Local Responsibility Areas, and most of this county is state or federal land. At **141** of them the USFS grid above supplied the hazard reading instead; at the remaining 25 the hazard weight is renormalised away rather than scored as low.\n\n166 sample points on a ~2.3 km grid, plus one at the centre of each community, weighted with the Satelife county profile v1 · median layer coverage 90%. Scores are 0–100 and comparable within the county, not across states.\n\nFor a property\n\n## What a county range means for _one address_\n\nFor property-level context, the USFS Wildfire Risk to Communities product indicates 87.9% of Cochise County can burn. It reports a mean annual burn probability of 1.05% and a mean conditional flame length of 4.76 feet.\n\nCounty-wide community conditions in FEMA’s National Risk Index are also relevant when comparing properties: social vulnerability is rated \"Relatively High\" and community resilience is rated \"Very Low.\" FEMA’s all-hazards county rating is \"Relatively Moderate.\"\n\nAcross 166 sampled points in Cochise County, the score runs from 26.2 to 84.3 — two neighbouring parcels can sit in different tiers. A county number is the middle of that spread; it says nothing about which end yours is at.\n\nFind out where your Cochise County parcel sits\n\nSlope, the fuel touching the structure, the road out, the fire history within a mile — measured at your address, not averaged across the county.\n\nFree to request · PDF report with a 0–100 score, the drivers behind it, and a mitigation plan\n\nCoverage\n\n## ZIP codes we cover in Cochise County\n\nEvery one of the 29 ZIP areas that touch Cochise County — we run address-level reports in all of them. They are grouped by the median score of the points we sampled inside each, which is a neighbourhood-scale indicator and **not** a score for any property: two homes in the same ZIP routinely land in different tiers.\n\n**High** 18 ZIPs\n\n-   [85615 Nicksville74](/wildfire-risk/zip/85615/)\n-   [85609 Benson72](/wildfire-risk/zip/85609/)\n-   [85650 Sierra Vista Estates70](/wildfire-risk/zip/85650/)\n-   [85613 Huachuca City65](/wildfire-risk/zip/85613/)\n-   [85606 Willcox63](/wildfire-risk/zip/85606/)\n-   [85630 Benson60](/wildfire-risk/zip/85630/)\n-   [85638 Tombstone59](/wildfire-risk/zip/85638/)\n-   [85602 Benson56](/wildfire-risk/zip/85602/)\n-   [85616 Whetstone56](/wildfire-risk/zip/85616/)\n-   [85610 McNeal55](/wildfire-risk/zip/85610/)\n-   [85607 Douglas55](/wildfire-risk/zip/85607/)\n-   [85605 Bowie55](/wildfire-risk/zip/85605/)\n-   [85625 McNeal54](/wildfire-risk/zip/85625/)\n-   [85635 Sierra Vista53](/wildfire-risk/zip/85635/)\n-   [85632 San Simon52](/wildfire-risk/zip/85632/)\n-   [85617 McNeal52](/wildfire-risk/zip/85617/)\n-   [85643 Willcox52](/wildfire-risk/zip/85643/)\n-   [85603 Bisbee50](/wildfire-risk/zip/85603/)\n\n**Moderate** 2 ZIPs\n\n-   [85620 Naco36](/wildfire-risk/zip/85620/)\n-   [85626 Pirtleville36](/wildfire-risk/zip/85626/)\n\n**No sampled point inside** 9 ZIPs\n\n[85534](/wildfire-risk/zip/85534/) · [85546](/wildfire-risk/zip/85546/) · [85608 Pirtleville](/wildfire-risk/zip/85608/) · [85611 Whetstone](/wildfire-risk/zip/85611/) · [85624 Huachuca City](/wildfire-risk/zip/85624/) · [85627 Benson](/wildfire-risk/zip/85627/) · [88020](/wildfire-risk/zip/88020/) · [88045](/wildfire-risk/zip/88045/) · [88056](/wildfire-risk/zip/88056/)\n\nGrouped from 20 of 29 ZIP areas — the rest had no sample point fall inside them. The community shown is the nearest mapped place to the ZIP's centre.\n\nZIP areas are Census 2020 ZIP Code Tabulation Areas intersecting the county boundary.\n\nWhere to go next\n\n## Cochise County wildfire risk _in context_\n\n[Arizona wildfire risk The statewide picture and every county page we publish](/wildfire-risk/arizona/) [Wildfire risk by state Every state and county we cover](/wildfire-risk/) [How Satelife calculates wildfire risk Data sources, layers, score composition, honest limits](/wildfire-risk/methodology/) [Create a wildfire evacuation plan Zones, egress routes, refuge areas](/wildfire-evacuation-plan/) [Run a report for a Cochise County address PDF + score + mitigation plan](/#cta)\n\nFAQ\n\n## Frequently asked questions about _Cochise County wildfire risk_\n\nDoes Cochise County have any Low-tier wildfire risk areas?\n\nIn the places scored here, no points fell in the Low tier. Most points are in High, with smaller counts in Moderate and Very High.\n\nWhat are the key fires to know in this county?\n\nThe largest listed fire is Horseshoe 2 (2011) at 222,990 acres. The most recent large fire entry is shown as Unknown (9999).\n\nWas fire weather included in these county scores?\n\nNo. Fire weather was not measured at all in the county results shown here.\n\nIs FEMA’s rating a score for my neighborhood?\n\nNo. FEMA’s National Risk Index ratings are county-wide ratings. For Cochise County, FEMA rates wildfire risk as \"Relatively High.\"\n\nThis page is generated from a Cochise County data pack assembled on 2026-09-05 (pack v1.0). Scores are sampled across the county, not measured at any individual address, and are informational decision support — not a substitute for official evacuation orders, a fire-agency hazard determination, or an insurer's underwriting judgement. Data versions: fema\\_nri 1.20.0 (Dec 2025) · landfire per adapter · nifc\\_history All Years View · wfigs current · wrc v2.0 (2024) · zcta Census 2020.\n\n## What does _your parcel_ look like, layer by layer?\n\nA county range shows the spread. An address-level Satelife report shows where in that spread your property actually sits — PDF, per-layer score, and a prioritized mitigation plan.\n\n[Start with your address →](/#cta)\n\n[![PRR](/images/prr.png)](/ficha-de-website-voucher-satelife.pdf)\n\n© 2024–2026 Satelife, Lda. All rights reserved.\n\nSatelife reports are for informational purposes only and do not constitute insurance, financial, or legal advice."
}